Deep-pocketed contenders hunt for breakout in crowded California governor’s race
Two new polls underscore how unsettled the crowded California governor’s race remains nearly three months before the June 2 primary, with no candidate breaking out of the teens and a large bloc of undecided voters still in play.
One Emerson College survey shows Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Dublin, edging ahead of the pack with 17% support among likely voters, though a quarter of those surveyed said they were undecided. A separate POLITICO poll, conducted with UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center, shows Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, leading the primary field with 19% support.
The surveys also offer an early snapshot of where two well-funded Democrats — billionaire Tom Steyer and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — stand as they work to expand their name recognition statewide. Steyer is in the low teens in both polls, up from 4% in Emerson’s December survey; Mahan, who entered the race in late January and whose campaign has not yet begun to advertise, sits at 3%. That’s in line with their numbers in other recent polls.
Neither man has managed to build a clear lead over arguably better known rivals like Swalwell, a vocal critic of President Donald Trump and regular guest on cable news shows, and former Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive who previously ran for U.S. Senate in California.
Mahan and Steyer are aiming to quickly boost their profile in one of the most expensive media markets in the country.
Steyer has spent more than $79 million of his money on the race since he entered it in November. His ads have blanketed local TV, social media and YouTube. The former financier has vowed to cut what he describes as corporate tax loopholes, slash utility bills and institute single-payer healthcare.
Mahan entered the race on Jan. 29, positioning himself as a pragmatist who is sometimes willing to buck Democratic Party orthodoxy on issues like retail theft, homelessness and government spending.
He quickly raised more than $10 million from supporters that include tech titans like Google co-founder Sergey Brin. Eric Jaye, Mahan’s campaign strategist, said in an interview that the campaign itself had yet to begin spending on advertising but would do so shortly. A separate committee supporting Mahan, which cannot coordinate with his campaign, aired a Super Bowl ad and is spending another $4.8 million on separate TV ads boosting the mayor, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of Sacramento voter data firm Political Data, said Steyer’s early self-funding and Mahan’s fundraising edge have yet to produce a clear polling lift.
“You would think with the lopsidedness of the spending to date that you would have had things shift in a greater sense,” Mitchell said.
Steyer spokesperson Kevin Liao noted Steyer has gained ground since he entered the race, rising from 4% in the December Emerson poll to 11% in the most recent survey.
“Tom Steyer has a record of delivering results for California, even when the professional politicians couldn’t,” Liao said in an email.
Jaye expressed confidence that voters would warm to Mahan once more of them heard his message.
“We’re preparing to make sure voters in California hear his policy solutions, and we know that when they do, we’ll see brisk movement in these polls,” Jaye said.
Mahan is one of five Democrats who polled at or below 5% in both the Emerson and POLITICO surveys, though he’s by far the best funded candidate in that pack.
Some Democrats, including California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks, have called for candidates without a viable path to step aside. He’s expressed concern that the Democratic candidates could split enough votes in the jungle primary that the two Republicans would advance to the general election.
Mitchell runs what he describes as a “Monte Carlo simulator” that places the odds of that lockout at 20% based on the most recent polls.
