Xavier Becerra sees post-Swalwell boost in governor’s race, new poll shows
Former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra is touting a poll published Thursday and a surge of recent social media interest as evidence that his campaign for California governor is viable in the wake of Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s exit from the race following sexual misconduct allegations.
An Emerson College survey published Thursday showed Becerra tied with former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter with 10%, behind billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer and Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (both at 14%), and Republican media pundit Steve Hilton (17%). Among Democrats, Becerra surged even more, edging out Porter to claim second at 19%, just behind Steyer (20%), a 15-point increase from its previous March 11 poll. Some 23% of voters remain undecided, according to Thursday’s poll.
“Secretary Becerra is the most experienced candidate in the race — and voters trust him to address California’s complex issues, which is why he has tripled his support since March,” said Michael Bustamante, Becerra’s senior campaign adviser. “Today’s poll just confirms the trends we have been seeing in all our tracking: Becerra’s message and experience are moving voters, and this will only continue as voters begin to shift focus as the June 2 primary approaches.”
The survey of 1,000 likely voters, which Emerson conducted via email and text message on Monday and Tuesday, was the first since Swalwell suspended his campaign for governor on Sunday and resigned his East Bay congressional seat on Tuesday. Last week, the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported accounts from three women who said he had sent them unsolicited nude photos. A fourth woman said he raped her on two occasions, in 2019 when she worked in his Castro Valley district office, and again in 2024. A fifth woman came forward this week and said he drugged and assaulted her in 2018.
Swalwell has denied all of the accusations.
Until Thursday, polls showed Becerra had stagnated for months at single-digit numbers. In November, his nascent campaign was rocked after The Sacramento Bee reported that the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Sacramento had charged his former aide, Sean McCluskie, with stealing campaign funds from Becerra while the two worked in the Biden administration. McCluskie has since pleaded guilty and is awaiting sentencing on federal bank and wire fraud charges. Becerra was the secretary of Health and Human Services under Biden.
In the days since Swalwell’s exit, Becerra’s campaign reported a 1600% increase in traffic to its social media channels, according to Bustamante. Some online critics, like Green Party candidate Butch Ware, have claimed the bump is due to Becerra’s paying influencers, which his campaign denied.
“We have a small digital and social media team. This is all organic growth on the part of voters who are just starting to pay attention,” Bustamante said Thursday. He said a handful of creators had reached out to the campaign to express interest in coordinating online posts, but declined to say whom.
Alf LaMont, the chief executive of LaMont Digital, which created ads for the successful Proposition 50 redistricting campaign, confirmed that Becerra’s campaign had hired his agency alongside Harrison Morgan, a digital strategist for Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
“To my knowledge, no paid media has been deployed on social (media). Everything you’re seeing is the result of organic work,” LaMont wrote via email.
Democratic pollster Paul Mitchell had previously predicted a slight chance that the splintered field of candidates could keep Democrats from finishing first or second in the June 2 primary and leading to a runoff between Hilton and Bianco.
“I’d say this (Emerson College) poll suggest there is still some likelihood, but the Trump endorsement should help Hilton pull away,” Mitchell said via text message, referring to the president’s recent endorsement of Hilton. “Dems need to keep watching.”
The Emerson poll had a credibility interval (akin to a margin of error) of plus or minus 3%.
A Public Policy Center of California survey conducted before Swalwell’s exit and published Thursday showed Becerra polling below 10%, along with San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former State Controller Betty Yee, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond.
Earlier this week, Becerra traded blows with Villaraigosa in campaign ads as previous polls showed the two struggling to break out of the splintered field of candidates. Becerra slammed Villaraigosa for having an affair with a TV reporter, and Villaraigosa criticized the McCluskie “scandal” and Becerra’s handling of child trafficking while he was the head of Health and Human Services.
