Whiter, wealthier primary voters may shape California’s governor race
Californians began voting Monday in this year’s primary election. The race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom remains unsettled, but is beginning to consolidate.
With no clear frontrunner — and with primary turnout typically far lower than in November — the voters who do show up could have an outsized say in who becomes the next governor.
As early voting sites opened across the state and voters began receiving ballots by mail, a new poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra tied for first place. Each drew 18% support from likely voters.
The survey is the latest sign that Becerra, former California attorney general and U.S. secretary of health, has reenergized a campaign that had been lagging after former Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his bid last month amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations. Swalwell has denied the accusations.
President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton appears to have reinforced his standing as the leading Republican over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who polled at 14%. Several Democrats also remain competitive, including billionaire Tom Steyer at 12%, former Rep. Katie Porter at 8% and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 7%.
The share of undecided voters has dropped 10 percentage points since March 17 and now stands at 14%.
Recent history suggests primary turnout will be relatively low. In 2018, the last time California had a gubernatorial primary with no incumbent, nearly 38% of registered voters cast ballots compared to 65% in November.
Overall, a little over a quarter of eligible voters cast ballots in that year’s primary.
Research consistently shows primary voters are whiter, wealthier, older, more partisan and more highly educated than the broader electorate.
“Gubernatorial primaries are highly consequential,” said Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy, a nonpartisan research center. “But the data and the trends tell us that even if it’s a good year for a primary overall, it’s going to be lower turnout.”
Romero said campaigns often don’t invest in reaching lower-propensity voters, who can be harder to contact and persuade.
In the current field, Steyer, who has poured more than $145 million into his campaign, is uniquely positioned to reach niche audiences.
Voter-data analyst Paul Mitchell, who runs a hobby website tracking candidates’ ad buys, noted that Steyer is the only candidate advertising on Spanish-language radio in the Central Valley, for example.
The other candidates are racing to raise enough money for more basic and costly statewide TV advertising.
“One of the challenges for the Democratic candidates is that there’s only so many Democratic donors in the state, and they’ve been splitting up Democratic donors,” Mitchell said.
There’s another reason many voters may stay home: Primaries generate less buzz that breaks through to the politically disengaged, said Eric McGhee, policy director at the Public Policy Institute of California.
“Is this a thing that everybody is talking about and that kind of you feel like you want to be a part of?” McGhee said. “That’s how I think of it.”
