Capitol Alert

These three candidates are at the top of a new governor’s race poll

With less than three weeks remaining before the June 2 primary, Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a narrow lead in the governor’s race, according to an Emerson College poll released Tuesday.

The former state attorney general was the top pick for 19% of likely voters, trailed by Democrat Tom Steyer, a billionaire environmental activist, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, both of whom garnered 17% support.

The trio of candidates is running within the margin of error and hold a notable edge on the remaining candidates:

  • Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) - 11%
  • Former Rep. Katie Porter (D) - 10%
  • San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D) - 8%
  • Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) - 4%
  • State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond (D) - 1%

The poll found 12% of likely voters remain undecided. And even among voters who listed a top choice, 40% say they could change their mind and vote for someone else.

Outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom got mixed marks in the poll, with 43% approving of his job as governor and 40% disapproving.

Emerson polls since September reflect a race to replace Newsom that’s been in constant flux. Emerson’s first poll in September showed Porter with a small lead over other candidates. In the months since, Steyer, a former hedge fund manager, has leveraged a large cash advantage to steadily gained ground; he’s plowed nearly $179 million of his own money into his campaign as of Tuesday morning.

Becerra had an especially dramatic rise, spiking from 3% in March to 19% in May after Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race.

The poll was conducted May 9-10, after two combative debates where rivals attacked Becerra’s record as secretary of health and human services under President Joe Biden and his connection to a corruption scandal involving a former aide who siphoned campaign funds from Becerra’s dormant campaign account. Becerra has not been accused of wrongdoing by federal authorities.

The candidates are set to meet at a final debate on Thursday hosted by CBS News California and the San Francisco Examiner. It will run on CBS stations across the state at 5:30 p.m.

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Ben Paviour
The Sacramento Bee
Ben Paviour is the California political power reporter for The Sacramento Bee’s Capitol Bureau. He previously covered Virginia state politics for public radio and was a local investigations fellow at The New York Times. He got his start in journalism at the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. Before becoming a reporter, he worked in local government and tech in the Bay Area.
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