Snow and cold target New Hampshire primary. Will it hurt any 2020 Democrats’ chances?
Another curveball could impact New Hampshire’s 2020 primary Tuesday: the weather.
Snow, rain and chilly temperatures are forecast in the state this week as it holds its first-in-the-nation primary, which is the second contest of the year in Democrats’ race to choose who will take on President Donald Trump in November.
Of course, the New England state is used to wintry conditions, particularly in the middle of February. But that doesn’t mean precipitation and temperature drops won’t impact voters.
Sen. Bernie Sanders of neighboring Vermont has led in recent polls in New Hampshire, with former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, polling high as well. Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and former Vice President Joe Biden are polling a bit behind those frontrunners.
What’s the primary day forecast in New Hampshire?
“Early in the day, rain and snow showers will be less widespread, and mainly confined to the southwestern part of the state,” meteorologist Matt Benz said, according to AccuWeather. “If you want to ensure you wait to vote in dry conditions, the earlier you go the better.”
NECN reports that conditions “will impact voters in New Hampshire mainly after lunchtime.”
The New Hampshire Union-Leader in Manchester, the state’s largest city, reports that “the forecast for Tuesday … [calls] for scattered rain and snow showers with temperatures in the high 30s in southern communities and reaching 40 on the Seacoast, Clair said. Central and northern New Hampshire were also expected to see scattered snow and rain showers, and temperatures were expected to be in the mid-30s.”
“It’s not going to be brutally cold by any means, but it’ll be chilly,” said meteorologist Brett Rossio, noting that the region has had a relatively warm and mild winter so far, according to AccuWeather.
How does weather impact voting and turnout?
AccuWeather cited 2016 research conducted by the weather site that showed “difficult weather conditions, including winter weather, can affect voter turnout with swing voters especially.”
AccuWeather reported that “research shows that women are less likely to vote when conditions are colder, and voters between the ages of 18-24 are more likely to vote when the weather is warm and sunny, which could affect Sanders’ numbers, as he is the popular candidate among young voters.”
Previous research has shown that weather can influence voter turnout and preferences by party — but it’s not clear that would have bearing on Tuesday’s contest, which is a competition among those of the same political affiliation.
“It is clear from our results that Republicans benefit from precipitation on election day,” researchers write in “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain,” a 2007 study published in The Journal of Politics. “In addition to its direct effect on voter turnout, we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to the benefit of Republicans.”
The authors wrote in their abstract that they found that “compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5%. Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party’s vote share.”
The study notes that the idea weather influences turnout is widely accepted in the media and among political operatives. The researchers quote Democratic political consultant James Carville as saying on CNN ahead of the 2004 primary in New Hampshire that “heavy snow [expected in the state] could affect the turnout, particularly among the elderly.”
So what can politicians and political parties do if precipitation is anticipated?
“To offset these Republican gains, Democrats must take action to counteract the increased cost of voting among their supporters,” the authors wrote. “Otherwise, Democrats may wish to ‘pray for dry weather.’”
Can weather influence voters’ preferences?
A more recent study — published in 2018 in the journal American Politics Research — suggests weather might influence which candidates voters choose, and not just turnout.
“Our study suggests that weather conditions may affect people’s decisions on not only whether to vote but also who they vote for,” co-author Yusaku Horiuchi, a professor of government at Dartmouth College, said in a statement released by the school
Researchers said their study revealed that “at least 1 percent of voting age adults in the U.S. who would have voted for a Democrat had the weather been good, voted instead for a Republican on rainy election days.”
But why?
The researchers said it could be because voters are more risk averse when the weather is bad, writing that “earlier studies have identified a correlation between ideological and political orientations in which conservatives or Republicans tend to be more averse to risk than liberals or Democrats.”
USA Today reported that Election Day rainfall apparently “heightens pessimism and increases fears of risk,” quoting the 2018 study authors as writing: “Those who feel in an upbeat mood may lean toward the riskier candidate, while those who feel depressed and anxious lean toward the safer candidate.”
This story was originally published February 10, 2020 at 2:47 PM with the headline "Snow and cold target New Hampshire primary. Will it hurt any 2020 Democrats’ chances?."
