Could Trump run for president again? He’s among the favorites for 2024, oddsmakers say
As Americans digest the events of the 2020 presidential election, oddsmakers are already looking ahead to 2024.
And the list of names should look very familiar.
President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris are viewed as having the best odds among potential 2024 candidates to win the next presidential election, according to multiple oddsmakers. Biden’s odds sit at +350 and Harris has +400 odds to be the president-elect in 2024, according to Gambling.com.
Those odds mean Biden is viewed as a slight favorite for the next presidential election over Harris, with a $100 bet on Biden paying out $450 total if he wins again. The same $100 bet on Harris would return $500 total if she were to win the presidency in 2024.
This gives Biden an “implied probability” of 22% to win a second term at this early point, with Harris at 20%, according to Gambling.com.
But what about the Republican hopefuls?
President Donald Trump is considered the favorite among oddsmakers to win the Republican nomination at +160 odds, according to Action Rush. Trump, who has not conceded the 2020 election to Biden, is “likely” to run again in 2024, former acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said before Trump’s loss, Fox News reported.
At 78 years old in 2024, he would be the oldest candidate in the history of U.S. presidential elections, according to Action Rush. Biden, 77, will be the oldest president inaugurated to a first term later in January 2021.
While Trump is viewed as the odds-on favorite to win the GOP primary, his odds to win the presidency in 2024 sit at +1000, lower than the perceived odds for Biden and Harris, according to Gambling.com.
“The businessman holds a huge sway over the Republican party and millions of loyal voters – so were he to decide to run again, there’s little others in the GOP could do to stop him,” Gambling.com political betting analyst Joe Short said.
The gambling site gives Trump a 9% “implied probability” of ascending back into the White House.
Oddsmakers see Nikki Haley, the former Republican governor of South Carolina and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Vice President Mike Pence as the most likely GOP candidates aside from Trump to take the White House in 2024.
Earlier this year, Haley topped a Washington Post list of women most likely to become the first female president. Her perceived odds to win the Republican candidacy are at +250, Action Rush shows. Other sites, such as OddsChecker.com, show her odds slightly worse than Pence.
“Haley brings wide appeal to various demographics in America,” Short said. “She has also worked as the United States’ ambassador to the United Nations, meaning her political standing on the international stage is far greater than most.”
Gambling.com gives Haley an “implied probability” of 7.69% to win the White House in the 2024 presidential election.
Ivanka Trump, Fox News host Tucker Carlson and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas are also among the favored Republicans per bettors, according to OddsChecker. Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Cruz each have +800 odds to win the Republican nomination, according to BetOnline.ag.
This story was originally published November 9, 2020 at 6:36 AM with the headline "Could Trump run for president again? He’s among the favorites for 2024, oddsmakers say."