Who is favored to win the Georgia senate runoffs? Here’s what the oddsmakers say
The betting odds have shifted in the Senate Runoffs as Georgians are set to hit the polls Tuesday.
Multiple oddsmakers now favor Democratic challengers Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff — a swift change from December.
How close are Republican candidates Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Sen. David Perdue and could Republicans keep control of the Senate?
Loeffler vs. Warnock
Loeffler’s implied odds to win the runoff were anywhere from 59% to 67% in mid December, McClatchy News previously reported.
But she’s now viewed as an underdog by oddsmakers. US-Bookies.com has given Warnock 3/5 odds — an implied probability of 62.5% — to win against Loeffler.
He has similar odds at BetOnline.AG at 4/7, implying a 63.6% chance. SportsBetting.AG shows Warnock with an implied probability to win at 62.3%.
“The Loeffler vs. Warnock odds on Nov. 6 opened as a tossup,” a SportsBetting.ag spokesperson said. “Loeffler climbed to as high as -300 on Nov. 30. Loeffler is currently at +135 underdog.”
Voter polls have been leaned toward Warnock throughout most of the post-Election Day campaign. He has had a slight lead on Loeffler since Dec. 22 and now has a 2 percentage point advantage, according to Five Thirty Eight’s aggregate of national polls.
Perdue vs. Ossoff
The other runoff is believed to be closer, with one oddsmaker even calling it a tossup.
Ossoff had a mere 33.3% implied probability to win in November, but his odds have changed dramatically, according to US-Bookies. He’s now a 4/5 favorite among bookmakers, implying 55.6% odds.
BetOnline gives Ossoff the same odds to defeat Perdue, but the race is a tossup according to SportsBetting.ag.
“The Perdue vs. Ossoff odds on Nov. 6 opened with Perdue as a -200 favorite,” a SportsBetting.AG spokesperson said. “Perdue moved to as high as -450 on Nov. 30. The race is currently considered a tossup by the oddsmakers.”
Polls gave Perdue an advantage of 4 percentage points on Nov. 9, according to Five Thirty Eight’s average, but he and Ossoff later went back and forth. The website shows Ossoff grabbed an advantage in the polls Dec. 30 and currently has a 1.4% lead.
Thoughts from oddsmakers
Adam Burns, BetOnline SportsBook Manager, said dollar amounts in the six figures have been wagered on each of the runoffs.
“We have been watching them closely as money seems to be coming in pretty evenly on both sides,” he told McClatchy News.
Burns previously said the “Trump effect” led to increased awareness of U.S. politics around the world, McClatchy News reported.
A US-Bookies spokesperson said the surge from the Democratic candidates came “gradually.”
“While the markets are still quite close, noticing such improvements in the final days before the election is a strong sign for Warnock and Ossoff, and it paints a grim picture for Loeffler’s and Perdue’s hopes of retaking their seats.”
The runoff elections in Georgia, which Joe Biden narrowly won in the general election, will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. Senate in 2021.
The oddsmakers still offer plenty of hope for the Republican candidates. Burns said he can see both races “going either way.” US-Bookies says bookmakers “aren’t counting out a Republican-majority Senate.”
This story was originally published January 4, 2021 at 10:00 AM with the headline "Who is favored to win the Georgia senate runoffs? Here’s what the oddsmakers say."