Could a Bernie Sanders ticket help – not hurt – some down-ballot Democrats in California?
A Bernie Sanders surge in California, fueled by strong support in the Hispanic community and voters eager to protest the Washington establishment, could provide a boost for some of the state’s vulnerable House Democrats, according to political analysts.
“He could be better for Democrats in California than in other parts of the country,” said David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
But not all of California. Wasserman warned that in the Los Angeles suburbs, vulnerable freshman such as Reps. Katie Porter, Mike Levin and Harley Rouda could be hurt running on a ballot topped by Sanders.
“Voters in those districts generally like Obamacare and want to fix it. They’re wary of revolutionary change,” he said. Sanders, an independent senator from Vermont, wants to create a universal government health care program.
Democrats around the country are getting nervous about a Sanders-led ticket, fearing the self-described Democratic socialist would get so tarred by Republican criticism that the party’s candidates for other offices would suffer.
Democrats currently control 232 of the house’s 435 seats, and Republicans need a net gain of 20 for a majority. The GOP is targeting the 30 House districts President Donald Trump won in 2016 but Democratic House candidates won in 2018. None are in California.
Concern is growing among many in those districts, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, was circumspect earlier this week when assessing the Sanders impact nationwide.
“Let’s get through the prospects of the election. I love the people participating – the people’s choice. We will see how that goes and we will go from there,” she told reporters during a visit to San Francisco.
California’s delegation has 45 Democrats, six Republicans and two vacancies. Most seats are regarded as safe, but in 2018, California Democrats flipped seven Republican-held congressional districts.
“I’d worry about Sen. Sanders if he were our nominee, but that being said it’s up to us on the down-ballot races to run the races that we have to run in our districts,” said Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove, who has endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden. “But a lot of the policies that he’s fought for have not been mainstream Democratic policies. They can’t even get a majority of the Democratic Party to support Medicare for All, the Green New Deal and other things.”
A potentially large Hispanic vote driven by a Sanders candidacy, others said, could be a boost for the party in districts held by Reps. TJ Cox and Josh Harder. Sanders has drawn strong Latino backing in California polling.
“Democrats are always looking for a candidate to juice Hispanic turnout,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan analyst that tracks House races.
“Could that person be Sanders? It’s possible,” Kondik said, “and if that does happen, California is naturally a place where Democrats might benefit from higher Hispanic turnout.”
Inside Elections, a nonpartisan website that analyzes House races, said Cox’s district “tilts Democratic.” Cox won his first term in 2018 by narrowly defeating Rep. David Valadao, a Republican who’s seeking a rematch. About 70 percent of the population is Latino.
Freshmen Rep. Josh Harder defeated incumbent Jeff Denham, a Republican, in 2018 with 52% of the vote. The Cook Political Report, though, says the race “leans” Democratic. An estimated 40 percent of the population is Hispanic.
One benefit for Cox and Harder, and a Democrat running in the 25th District north of Los Angeles which includes the Simi Valley, would be that “voters in those areas tend to be more anti-establishment, more anti-elitist,” Wasserman said.
Neither Harder nor Cox have endorsed a 2020 presidential candidate. Both Cox and Harder’s campaign took a pass on the subject in statements to McClatchy the week before Super Tuesday, hinting they’d support whoever the eventual nominee is.
“I can confidently say anybody on stage in Tuesday’s debate would make an infinitely better president and commander-in-chief than the current occupant of the White House,” Cox said. “But it’s critical that our eventual nominee is committed to Valley priorities, like protecting Social Security and Medicare and helping build and fix the infrastructure we need to deliver water to all our communities.”
Harder’s campaign said, “Josh is focused on his work for the families in the Valley and to be honest doesn’t spend a ton of time watching presidential candidates yell on TV. To beat Donald Trump, the Democratic nominee needs to be focused on the issues that matter to our families — lowering healthcare costs, expanding good-paying jobs and combating the homelessness emergency. If they do that, we expect Democrats and independents in the Valley will support whomever the eventual nominee is.”
Rouda and Porter have endorsed, and aren’t backing Sanders. Rouda endorsed former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg in January, while Porter endorsed Warren, a mentor of hers, early in the race.
Two recent statewide polls have put Sanders ahead in the March 3 primary race.
The Monmouth Poll earlier this month found he had the support of 38% of Hispanic voters, more than twice runnerup Joe Biden’s 17%. The Public Policy Institute of California survey had Sanders with 53% of the Latino vote.
Adding to the possibility of a Sanders surge is the involvement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the New York Democrat who’s become a millennial generation star for her party. She’s also a big Sanders supporter.
Her Courage to Change Political Action Committee has named Georgette Gomez, who’s seeking the seat of retiring San Diego-area Rep. Susan Davis, as one of its featured candidates. She also gave $1,000 to the campaign of California freshman Rep. Mike Levin.
The key to a Sanders benefit for Democrats is how much he motivates turnout, and so far, that’s an open question.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, understood why he could spark a big Latino turnout.
“It tends to be a vulnerable community, and he’s got a message that reaches out to people who feel vulnerable,” Murray said.
But for a Sanders surge to help others on the Democratic ticket, there needs to be a bigger turnout, and so far, there’s little evidence that has happened.
“We haven’t seen him bring out new voters in the first three contests,” Murray said, in New Hampshire, Iowa or Nevada.
A total of about 105,000 voters turned out for Saturday’s Nevada caucuses, up from 84,000 four years ago but short of the 118,000 who showed up in 2008, the first year Barack Obama ran for president.
This story was originally published February 27, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
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