Could California Democrats benefit from an abortion battle? Here’s how
Suddenly, abortion has the potential to figure prominently in the races for California’s swing House districts–and maybe in which party controls Congress after the November midterm elections.
“One possible outcome is that voters in blue/bluish states and districts could become a little less willing to cross over and vote for a Republican,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis firm.
California has five House districts, three now held by Republicans and two where GOP candidates are favored, that are regarded as winnable for Democrats. Republicans need a net gain of five seats nationwide to win control of the House.
The big reason the latest brawl over abortion rights could matter in those districts: A new chapter in the passionate, polarizing battle over what the political parties stand for.
Abortion is back in a red-hot spotlight thanks to the news, first reported by Politico, about a draft opinion saying the Supreme Court has agreed to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, which permitted legal abortion.
While no final opinion is expected until June, and it could still be softened, striking down Roe has long been expected from the court. Six of the nine justices were appointed by Republican presidents who opposed most abortions. Republicans say Democrats are eager to change the subject.
“If this leaked opinion is the decision of the court, it would allow each individual state to decide how they want to handle this controversial issue. Democrats are desperate to talk about anything besides the crumbling economy, record-high inflation and soaring gas prices.,” said Torunn Sinclair, spokeswoman for GOP’s congressional campaign committee..
To Democrats, Republican views on abortion are a loud warning about how they would govern.
“The choice this November is clear ... Democrats will fight to protect our most fundamental freedoms,” said Madison Mundy, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman.
Chances are that the abortion issue itself won’t decide swing California congressional races.
“It simply relegates the issue to the states to decide. It is doubtful that it will generate much or any change for California,” said Scott Jones, the Republican Sacramento County sheriff in a tight race for a Third District congressional seat.
Here are four takeaways from experts on the impact of the 2022 abortion battle on California’s congressional elections:
California political money
Both parties should see a fundraising bonanza, particularly from California. “The most tangible result we’ll see is likely to be a fundraising boom,” said Jacob Rubashkin, analyst for Inside Elections, a nonpartisan political analysis firm.
He recalled what occurred immediately after the September, 2020, death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Democrats raised a record $91.4 million in the 28 hours after her passing was announced.
California has long been regarded as a crucial state for Democratic fundraising. During the 2020 election cycle, state donors shelled out $1.6 billion in itemized contributions to candidates and campaigns. About 69% went to Democrats, according to Open Secrets, a nonpartisan research group.
Tuesday morning, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, sent a fundraising plea via email to supporters. “Republicans will think they can get away with anything. What will be next?” she asked.
Legalizing abortion nationwide
Many California Democratic members of Congress will fight for a national law legalizing abortion in most instances.
“We must codify reproductive rights into federal law. The alarm bells were ringing before, but it’s now more urgent than ever,” tweeted Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla.
Padilla is a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which would write abortion-related legislation. Chairman Dick Durbin, D-Ill., said flatly Tuesday that he’ll push for a national law.
“We must enshrine into law a woman’s right to make her own health care choices,” he told the committee.
Any such law, though, as well as a nationwide ban being discussed by some Republicans, is likely to go nowhere in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed to cut off debate.
House races get closer
Three nonpartisan ratings–The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections-all list three GOP seats as tossups: those held by Reps. David Valadao of Hanford, Michelle Steel of Huntington Beach and Mike Garcia of Santa Clarita.
The Third District, which leans Republican but has no incumbent, is also seen as in play. It includes Placer, Nevada, Mono, Sierra, Inyo, Plumas and Alpine and parts of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Yuba counties.
Scott Jones, saying he’s “pro-life,” said that “since this is a preliminary opinion, it is premature to weigh in on the opinion itself.”
Kiley, who also opposes abortion rights, saw Democrats using the issue in broader ways. “Politicians are already using it as a pretext to push radical policies that go far beyond what the vast majority of Californians of either party support,” he said.
Democrat Kermit Jones had a very different view. “As a physician, I know that medical decisions belong in the exam room between a patient and their doctor,” he said.
“While this is a draft opinion and abortion remains legal, it is all too clear Republicans will stop at nothing to dismantle the fundamental right to reproductive freedom.”
Californians and Roe v. Wade
There is little sentiment for overturning Roe v. Wade in California. About three of every four Californians oppose doing so, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll taken March 30-April 13.
That view prevails in every geographic and political demographic. Forty-four percent of Republicans say Roe should be overturned, but 54% say it should not. Among independents, 77% oppose ending Roe.
The issue, though, does stir partisan passion. Since President Joe Biden was elected in 2020, “overall levels of polarization in the United States remain dangerously high, spurred on by increasing controversy around reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ issues,” says the University of Southern California “polarization index.”
It found abortion is the third most polarizing issue, “primarily due to reaction from the left to the growing number of states passing legislation to restrict abortion.”
This story was originally published May 3, 2022 at 1:40 PM.
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