Will a Trump endorsement help a Democrat win this California congressional seat?
Donald Trump is now officially a factor in the Kermit Jones-Kevin Kiley-Scott Jones race for Congress.
And while Trump’s endorsement of Kiley earlier this month means Kermit Jones has a highly useful new foil, it’s still going to be a tough race for the Democrat in this Republican-leaning district, analysts said.
Trump “gives Jones an ability to raise money and raise his profile at a national level,” said Sacramento-based Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta. But, he added, for Democrats, “it’s a tough seat.”
“Almost across the board in local offices it’s all Republican, rural and suburban. Not exactly Democratic territory,” said Steve Maviglio, also a Sacramento-based Democratic consultant.
Kiley, a Rocklin assemblyman, is vying with Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, also a Republican, and Democrats Kermit Jones and David Peterson for the seat. The district winds from Plumas County, through the Sacramento suburbs, parts of El Dorado County and down to Inyo County.
Whoever wins the top two slots in the June 7 California primary will compete in the November general election.
The race is an attractive target for national Democrats. Republicans need a net gain of five seats nationally in November to win a House majority, and few GOP incumbents around the nation are seen as vulnerable. With no Republican incumbent in the newly-drawn 3rd — Rep. Tom McClintock opted to run for re-election in the new 5th — the district could become more competitive for a Democrat.
Having Trump involved could give Kermit Jones a boost.
“Kevin Kiley will now have a tough time explaining to voters why he is aligning with Trump who supported the insurrection at the US Capitol and Vladimir Putin over American interests. This can only help the Democratic candidates in this race,” said Hilary McLean, a Sacramento-based Democratic strategist.
Kiley has condemned the violence at the Capitol insurrection January 6.
Kermit Jones, Democratic star
Jones, a Navy veteran and physician, is regarded as a potential party star. He raised $1.1 million in the first quarter, roughly the same sum as Kiley, with 46% of the money coming from out-of-state donors, according to OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan research group. Kiley collected 4.4% of his money from outside California; Scott Jones 2.7%.
The Democrat’s national campaign arm has designated the 3rd as a “district in play,” one of 40 such seats nationwide that are currently open or held by Republicans. Should the race look winnable, it’s expected the party would help with logistics and fundraising.
Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, all nonpartisan House analysis groups, each call the race “likely Republican.” Cook describes the rating as meaning the seat is “not considered competitive at this point, but [has] the potential to become engaged.”
While Trump won 53.7% of the 2020 vote in McClintock’s old district, his margin dips to an estimated 49.7% to 50.5% in the new 3rd, which includes parts of previous district. The new 2020 congressional map reflects some big changes in California, since the state lost a seat this year.
Kermit Jones’ biggest boost could come from the ability to talk about MAGA and all it represents. In his endorsement, Trump predicted “Kevin is going to be a MAGA champion in Congress.” MAGA is the “Make America Great Again” slogan Trump has been using since his 2016 campaign.
Jones jumped on Kiley quickly after the endorsement, quoting the “MAGA champion” line and saying “voters have a choice between a partisan politician like Kiley who supports the January 6th insurrectionists that attempted to overthrow our government and a public servant who always puts country above party.”
Democrats use MAGA as shorthand for Trump-inspired policies and politics it considers excessive and extreme.
“MAGA reflects an extreme deviation away from the traditional Republican platform and instead represents hateful ideologies, like replacement theory, and dangerous conspiracies, like those that led to the violent insurrection on the U.S. Capitol,” said Madison Mundy, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Does Trump help or hurt?
Targeting Trump, though, is still a gamble in this district. Jones has been careful not to present himself a diehard Democrat.
“For me, it’s never been about partisan politics, it’s about keeping the oaths I’ve made to my patients and our country,” he told The Bee.
“I will always be willing to work with both parties to find solutions to problems like inflation and the rising cost of living.”
And, Jones said, “I’ll never be afraid to stand up to extreme partisans in either party, whether it’s Democrats who want to defund the police or Republicans who would pardon those who attacked our country on January 6th…”
Independent analysts saw Jones with at least four ongoing challenges, no matter how heavily Trump is involved in the race:
▪ Toxic Democrats. Just half of California’s voters approved of Biden’s job performance, according to last month’s Berkeley IGS statewide poll. A poll analysis said the numbers were “much less positive” than Biden registered in his first year in office.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, got a 42% approval rating, while 48% disapproved.
Kiley is tying Jones to those leaders. “Kermit Jones is running on the Biden-Pelosi-Newsom ticket that has brought us raging inflation, record gas prices, an illegal immigration crisis, surging crime and a stock market collapse,” said Dave Gilliard, a Kiley campaign consultant.
Kermit Jones said that while he respects Pelosi, “I see the toughest challenge is people seeing me on my record. I’m not coming in here as a Nancy Pelosi person, a fill in the blank thing who you want to run.”
He would not commit to backing Pelosi if she seeks to remain the party’s House Democratic leader. “I don’t know who else would be running. I’d have to see who’s running,” he said.
▪ Limited Democratic resources. 2022 is shaping up as a big Republican year, and Democrats have a lot of vulnerable incumbent seats to defend.
“Pretty much any district Trump carried in 2020 looks off the table for Democratic challengers in this cycle, given Biden’s approval rating,” said David Wasserman, House analyst for the Cook Political Report.
“This is a conservative seat. Especially this year,” said Republican consultant Matt Rexroad.
▪ Kiley and Scott Jones are not Trump. While Scott Jones can note that Trump didn’t endorse him, Kiley can point to support from a long list of mainstream Republicans. He’s been backed by the state Republican Party, five county GOP parties and former Gov. Pete Wilson.
“It would take something more to turn this district into a referendum on Trump,” said Jacob Rubashkin, analyst for the nonpartisan Inside Elections.
This story was originally published May 24, 2022 at 3:00 AM.
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