Is California missing 200,000 jobs due to remote work? Here’s what a state study says

A recently released analysis from California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates the state would have 200,000 more jobs today if remote work hadn’t reshaped the labor market after the pandemic. The findings raise fresh questions about affordability, migration and how California taxes workers.

LAO analyst Seth Kerstein, who is one of the authors of the report, emphasized that the missing jobs number is an estimate, not a certainty. In order for California to have maintained the same level of job growth compared to the rest of the country, “there’s a lot that would need to happen economically,” he said. But the “job gap” estimate provides a window into just how significant remote work’s impact has been on California’s labor market, said his coauthor, LAO analyst Chas Alamo.

The Sacramento Bee interviewed both Kerstein and Alamo for a deep dive into the findings.

FULL STORY: 200,000 California-based jobs are missing because of remote work, study says

Here are key takeaways from the story:

• Since 2019, employment in jobs with high rates of remote work grew 16% in the rest of the U.S. — but only 7% in California, according to the LAO report.
• The “job gap” is concentrated in four sectors: sales and marketing; finance and accounting; technology; and business and government operations.
• Migration accounts for roughly half the gap. In 2021, 43,000 remote-friendly workers moved to California, but 80,000 left — a net loss of 37,000.
• California’s share of employees working mainly from home dropped from 21% to 13% in the two years after 2021, but has held steady since.
• LAO data shows no widespread return-to-office movement in the last three years. About 1 in 10 employees still work from home full-time.