Northern California winter predictions have arrived. Here’s what the experts are saying

With temperatures in the triple digits Labor Day weekend, the idea of winter is either the light at the end of the tunnel or a faraway fantasy.

Either way, winter is coming, and weather predictions for the season are here.

Here’s what to expect

It won’t be a winter wonderland in California this season.

Mild temperatures and drier than normal conditions are expected to come to the California region, according to the Farmer’s Almanac 2022-2023 Extended Winter Forecast.

The Farmer’s Almanac is a publication founded in 1818 and is a source for long-range weather predictions based on a mathematical and astronomical formula. According to the publication, its readers maintain that forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.

These predictions align with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s experimental long-range forecasts.

Paul Ullrich, professor of regional and global climate modeling at the University of California, Davis, said the drier winter season could be due to the persistent La Niña that the state is experiencing.

La Niña is when the temperature of the sea surface is cooler than average in the Eastern Pacific, Ullrich said. This results in less evaporation, weaker storm track and less moisture, overall, in the atmosphere.

“So here in California, we usually experienced that in the form of less rainfall overall over the winter season,” said Ullrich.

He added that the state is going through a negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a longer-term climate pattern that lasts 20 to 30 years before switching phases. Being in the negative phase is typically associated with somewhat drier conditions, he said.

“So it’s anticipated that this winter season, unfortunately will be much like the winter seasons for the past three years, where we’re seeing anywhere from 50% to 75% of normal winter season precipitation,” Ullrich said.

Will we see a chilly winter?

Not with climate change.

According to NOAA predictions, the seasonal temperatures for the winter months are above average.

“This is a prediction that is inspired by climate change and our knowledge that every year effectively is getting warmer and warmer on average,” Ullrich said. “So a prediction of above average temperatures compared to what we saw 10 years ago is a pretty easy bet to make.”

Will there be any weather phenomena?

It’s hard to tell now if we’ll see any flooding or extreme weather conditions, like the bomb cyclone Northern California saw last year.

“California is an extreme place,” Ullrich said, adding that the seasonal predictability of how much precipitation we’ll get in the winter is low.

“It’s entirely possible that we’re going to see a complete reversal of this prediction and see indications of wetter conditions, or we might get a few lucky atmospheric rivers that come through that really dump a lot of precipitation on us,” he said. “And as a consequence, we experience an abnormally wet season.”

This story was originally published September 4, 2022 at 5:00 AM.