His coronavirus crystal ball – From Spain, he says what will happen next in Sacramento
Jock O’Connell is a familiar name and voice around Sacramento, an expert on the economics of trade and a frequent contributor to the Bee editorial pages. He is in Spain right now with a friend and he is experiencing a level of social restriction enforced by police and the military that is far beyond what we have in Sacramento.
I reached O’Connell by phone on what was Tuesday morning for me and dinner time for him and he had one message for those of us in Sacramento who are alarmed by how rapidly our lives are changing as we struggle to contain the spread of the coronavirus:
“You ain’t seen nothing yet,” O’Connell said.
Imagine Sacramento Police cars rolling down J street, or through neighborhoods from Del Paso Heights to the Pocket, while the cops inside the cars order anyone on the street to go back inside. Imagine the military or the National Guard joining in this effort while our once-public spaces became militarized?
It’s happening in Spain right now. And in the real time continuum of minute-to-minute changes in how governments strain to bend the curve of COVID-19 cases so that they don’t overwhelm hospital systems, it’s a fair bet that Spain is living our future here in Sacramento and throughout the United States.
O’Connell figures that Sacramento and the U.S. are about a week behind Spain in the measures governments are deploying to fight the coronavirus crisis. He doesn’t say that to be alarmist, but given how rapidly state and county guidelines have changed in the last week, can any of us be surprised if the once unthinkable becomes reality?
Changing coronavirus guidelines
On March 7, Gov. Gavin Newsom released state guidelines that advised school districts to close entire districts only if there had been multiple COVID-19 cases at multiple campuses. Within days, counties – including Sacramento County – had bolted ahead and closed districts down before multiple COVID-19 cases were reported. On Sunday, Newsom allowed restaurants to stay open if they restricted social distancing in dining rooms. By the next day, Newsom ordered that dining rooms be closed.
Just last week, on March 11, county health officials allowed a Sacramento Kings game to go on but warned older residents and people with compromised immune systems to stay home. By that night, the NBA shut down its season.
Right now, according to state directives announced by Newsom, “outdoor activities” are still allowed in California. We can walk the dog, go for a run, just get some air to break up days spent working from home, and the isolation of spending most of each day inside our homes.
But for how long? Talking to O’Connell revealed how possible our days of moving about outside could be numbered. Do we have a week? A few days? Or less?
When he first landed in Barcelona roughly two weeks ago, O’Connell could move about freely. But by the time he arrived in Palma a few days ago, his life changed drastically.
“It’s not particularly pleasant being shut in,” O’Connell said. “Especially with the police and an increasing military presence keeping people inside.”
He said that all outside movement is restricted by the government, such as going to market to buy food, or going to the pharmacy to get medications, or going to the doctor. Workers performing essentials jobs are allowed to go back and forth between those jobs.
But...
”Cultural attractions are closed. Churches are closed.”
Church and religion locked down
The idea of closed churches is particularly poignant in Sacramento as we just learned on Tuesday that the epicenter of COVID-19 outbreak is the Faith Presbyterian Church on Florin Road, where one parishioner has died after testing positive. Up to four other members of the church have tested positive as well while others are awaiting test results.
We are right in the middle of Lent and Easter is three weeks from this Sunday. Will places of worship be shuttered on the holiest of days?
In Spain right now, even parks and beaches are closed.
“It’s a very uncomfortable atmosphere,” he said. “Increasingly in Western Europe, behavior is restricted.”
As O’Connell said those words, I flashed on a Saturday tweet by colleague Benjy Egel, of a crowded Midtown brewery jammed with people who were absolutely not practicing “social distancing.”
Despite being pushed by reporters at his Sunday press conference, Newsom was very reluctant to enforce orders that invoke martial law. But it seems that is where we are going. O’Connell theorized the U.S. is taking longer because, unlike Europe, there has been no cohesive federal response to the COVID-19 outbreak. What we’ve seen instead are county and state governments responding in ad-hoc increments that seem confusing and disjointed.
In Spain, O’Connell said, there is no political ideology that mistrusts science as there is the U.S.
“Here in Europe, there are not large numbers of people who are averse to listening to the wisdom of science,” he said.
Viral denial relents
O’Connell said you don’t see political leaders encouraging people to go to bars, as the president and Rep. Devin Nunes just did days ago.
The commitment to a shared sacrifice of stamping about COVID-19 by severely restricting social interactions is complete and absolute, O’Connell said. The vibe here is different. You still see people, particularly young people, tweeting about going out to eat in public. The governor of Oklahoma got in trouble for doing that days ago. Beaches in Florida have been crowded.
Just last Friday I was at my gym, in a nearly full spin class. Now, gyms are closing.
As an economics person, O’Connell worries about the thriving bar and restaurant scene that has so energized Sacramento in recent years?
“We’re going to have to deal with the effect on the culture of Sacramento,” he said.
It makes you think that if the response to COVID-19 is as disjointed as the buildup, that the culture and economy of our city is in grave danger. This current isolation makes you question our tolerance for science denial. Our tolerance for a broken health care system. Our tolerance for ignorance on public health and homelessness. Our tolerance for weakened public schools ill equipped to teach all kids properly if they can’t be in run-down classrooms.
You still see and hear from people in this town – the capital of California and one of the largest economies in the world – who are in denial of what we are experiencing and how we got here.
We’re going to be paying for that denial for years to come. Good people are being hurt right now. Children are being hurt right now.
I’ve heard from the future in my talk with O’Connell and his message is true. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
This story was originally published March 17, 2020 at 5:18 PM with the headline "His coronavirus crystal ball – From Spain, he says what will happen next in Sacramento."
