California gas prices are on the rise. Nonsense and opportunism are right behind them
To hear some Americans tell it, the world is now witnessing two epic displays of national bravery: that of Ukrainians resisting the vastly superior firepower of a rapacious autocrat; and that of ourselves coughing up a few more quarters for every gallon of gas guzzled by our overgrown pickup trucks and sport-utility vehicles.
In declining to finance Vladimir Putin’s destruction of Ukrainian hospitals, schools and people by ending Russian oil imports, President Joe Biden did the right thing last week with evident trepidation, warning Americans that “defending freedom ... is going to cost us.” Less inspiring, he also resorted to preemptively boasting about U.S. oil production and setting up meetings with Putin’s fellow oil-rich international pariahs. Meanwhile, headlines dutifully hand-wrung about the “political threat for Democrats” posed by gas prices — rather than, say, the bombing threat for Ukrainians.
Few appeared to feel the former risk more keenly than Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose fellow Californians already pay a premium for gas thanks to taxes and regulations — neither of which are entirely unreasonable or unnecessary in a state beset by deadly air pollution and climate-accelerated wildfires. Still, having already offered to suspend inflation-indexed fuel tax increases before Putin’s invasion brought about the latest oil disruptions, Newsom used Tuesday’s State of the State address to promise perhaps billions more in relief to the state’s fossil fuel consumers in the form of a gas tax rebate.
Democratic legislative leaders delicately demurred, and understandably so: A few years ago, they heeded then-Gov. Jerry Brown’s call to summon the courage to raise gas taxes — and lost a member of their caucus to a recall election for their troubles. Noting that consumer prices are inflated across the board, Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon suggested offering broader relief instead of just throwing the gas tax into reverse, by which Newsom proposes to proportionately reward those incinerating the most dinosaurs and reap the short-term political rewards forgone by lawmakers.
The Legislature’s Republican micro-minority, meanwhile, smelled diesel in the water. Why pander a little, they answered the governor, when you could pander a lot? Republican Assembly leader James Gallagher of Yuba City and Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of Rocklin suggested suspending the gas tax altogether, which is just the sort of forward-looking problem-solving that has completely deprived them of power.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was also busy attempting to cynically and falsely tether petrol prices to Biden and Newsom rather than Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, among other murderous dictators enabled by fossil fuel riches. Not coincidentally, the Bakersfield Republican has collected over $2 million in contributions from oil and gas interests during his career in Congress, according to an analysis by Public Citizen.
But even if we can’t agree to blame the kleptocrats who control much of the world’s oil production for gas prices, we can agree that the prices have broken — nay, shattered — all precedents. So say virtually all the available news reports, having noted in recent days that the going rates “continue to break records,” are “the most expensive in U.S. history” and, not to put too fine a point on it, have reached a “record-breaking all-time high.”
“Why are gasoline prices so high?” one report asked. “How high are they expected to get?” fretted another. And, finally, doubting all the evidence of our senses and indeed our sanity, “Is this for real?”
Well, no. The records referred to are in nominal prices, not real ones.
Thursday’s nationwide average of $4.32 a gallon ($5.69 in California) was the highest sticker price so far, passing the previous peak of $4.14 during the 2008 financial crisis. It is up sharply over the past two years — which, by the way, were the first two years of a global pandemic that devastated demand for gasoline and much else.
Adjusted for inflation, however, which is the only meaningful way to measure prices, the 2008 peak was about a dollar higher than the current figure. Moreover, prices were about as high as they are now as recently as 2014 and for much of the early 2010s. Adjust further to reflect median household incomes and average fuel efficiency, which by the way tends to see a salutary rise whenever gas prices do, and the current cost of driving a mile is even less remarkable.
Yes, rising gas prices, and rising prices in general, are hard on those least able to afford them. But poor Californians are suffering far more from artificially inflated housing costs, which in turn force more people to use more gas for longer commutes to more affordable homes. In contrast to, for example, the global oil market, California policymakers could do plenty about that.
But the rush to cancel gas taxes and pump more American oil isn’t about helping the poor. It’s about alternately inflaming and mollifying irrational panic among largely middle-class voters for whom gas prices, blared from every other corner, seem more urgent than bombs.