As voters sour on President Biden, here’s why California Gov. Gavin Newsom can’t help | Opinion
Dismal national polls showing President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in key battleground states is not a breakout moment for California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Youthful and vibrant in a way that could soothe voter concerns about the 80-year-old Biden, Newsom, 56, has problems of his own.
A budget deficit threatens to linger for the remaining three years of his tenure. Despite his trip to China, where Newsom got kudos on climate achievements from the national press, global warming emissions actually increased in California last year.
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Newsom’s name invariably comes up while Democratic leaders remain in the throes of nervous self-reflection as the 2024 presidential election trends remarkably toward Trump — despite the numerous state and federal charges he faces. In the silly season of poll watching a full year before an election, Newsom looks great in abstract discussions about the presidency.
Biden, however, doesn’t have the luxury of distance. He presides over a presidency diminished by the very man who leads in the polls.
A poll by The New York Times and Siena College exemplified a weeks-long trend in public sentiment: Trump is clobbering Biden in Nevada and holds leads in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
David Axelrod, one of the architects of candidate Barack Obama’s historic campaign for the presidency, is not one to fly off the handle. But he did on X, formerly known as Twitter, when considering Biden’s current predicament with voters.
“The greatest concern is that (Biden’s) biggest liability (his age) is the one thing he can’t change,” Axelrod posted. “If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
Axelrod is not alone. The New York Times/Siena poll found that 71% of voters feel Biden is “too old” to be effective. The sentiment is bipartisan: A full 54% of Biden’s own supporters feel the same way.
Biden is showing no signs of stepping aside while the political winds — for now — are not in his favor. If he ever does change his mind and retires, whether it is just before the primary season or before the Democratic National Convention in August, he would leave scant time for candidates facing a disgruntled public.
Whatever his career aspirations are, Newsom’s own legacy as governor remains at risk.
Too many economic and environmental trends are not in the state’s favor. If a majority of voters have doubts about Biden’s handling of the economy, wait until they look more closely at Newsom.
By next summer, California’s mounting woes may leave him as an unattractive alternative to the aging president.
Absent a miracle, California’s homeless population will have officially increased by next summer when the annual census process throughout the state is completed. Homelessness starts with the lack of a home, and despite all the legislation and all of Newsom’s talk about housing, its construction simply has not increased in his tenure.
Despite suing the “Big Oil” companies, heading to China and signing new legislation to force all big companies to tabulate their global emissions, California last year emitted more than in 2021. If accomplishment on climate change is measured by actual emissions versus the number of bills passed and the number of foreign trips made, Newsom is in trouble, having failed to set California on a path to reducing emissions a full third between now and 2030.
State finances are a dangerous question mark because the traditional April tax deadline was moved back to October (and then Nov. 16 at the last minute) due to federally declared disasters because of the rains. Absent a last-minute surge in filings, the Newsom budget will have overestimated tax revenues this year by billions of dollars, setting up the prospect of slashing services during a bloody budget battle next June.
For most of Newsom’s tenure, surveys showed that most voters thought that California was heading in the right direction. Now they don’t.
Whatever his next job may be, the governor will do himself and California a great service by leaving this state in a better place than when he took office. That itself will be a very, very heavy lift.