Hold the guacamole. Avocados — and a whole lot more — may get even pricier under Trump | Opinion
The next time you buy an avocado, check the label.
There’s a good chance it’s from Mexico, and once Donald Trump is in office, he’ll slap a tariff on those little suckers, which is bad news for Californians who slather guacamole on almost everything.
Trump has threatened to impose a tariff as high as 25% on all Mexican imports, though nothing is certain at this point.
“At this date, we know little about how the Trump administration will implement new tariffs,” the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization based in Washington, D.C., wrote recently.
“Fundamental policy designs have yet to be announced, including the tariff rates that will be ultimately applied, if tariffs will be phased in, if any products will be excluded, and whether FTA (free trade agreement) partners will be exempt.”
Should you buy now and beat the tariff?
Despite the uncertainty, it’s not a bad idea to buy certain items now, before they become even more pricey.
Do you love Champagne? Stock up! (In 2020, the first Trump administration considered a retaliatory, 100% tariff on Champagne during a trade tiff.)
Can’t start the day without a cup of freshly ground coffee? Splurge on a few extra bags of beans! (The U.S. is the biggest coffee importer in the world, with most beans coming from Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala.)
Been eyeing a pair of leather boots? Buy ‘em! (According to the Peterson Institute, 99% of our shoes are imported, which means they will likely cost more in 2025.)
In the market for a new TV or game console? Don’t put it off! (Most TVs and many video game consoles are made in China. Trump initially threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese-made imports, though he more recently spoke of a 10% increase, which likely elicited a “muted sigh of relief,” according to the Brookings Institute.)
When it comes to avocados, though, we’re out of luck. Stocking up prior to the inauguration won’t do much good unless you freeze them, and that’s not recommended.
“Unfortunately, avocado not only loses its smooth, creamy texture, it also loses much of its fresh flavor in the freezer,” according to a 2023 article in “The Pioneer Woman.”
(It is possible, however, to make guacamole from other types of produce, including green peas and edamame. Keep that in mind when the Super Bowl rolls around.)
The poster child for Trump’s tariffs
But wait a minute. Don’t we grow plenty of avocados right here in California?
Indeed we do. California ranks first in the nation for avocados, which are primarily grown in the region stretching from San Luis Obispo County to San Diego.
But the supply is not nearly enough; 90% of avocados consumed in the U.S. are imported mostly from Mexico, which may be why some folks have gone bananas over the idea of a tariff.
It’s gotten to the point that avocados have become the unofficial poster child for the Trump tariffs.
Here’s a recent headline from The New York Times: “Prepare for guacamole to be a luxury item.”
Another from Newsweek: “Avocado prices set to soar because of Trump tariff.”
And one from PBS: “Trump’s tariff threats jeopardize avocados, tequila and other iconic Mexican products.”
Not just avocados
But let’s put this in perspective. It’s not like we’ll wind up spending $10 on a single avocado. An avocado that sells for $1 — which, granted, is hard to find right now — will be $1.25 if a 25% tariff kicks in.
That’s not so bad, but this isn’t just about avocados. The U.S. also imports tons of other produce grown in Mexico, including tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, lettuce, squash, watermelon and berries.
This is about the cumulative effect of tariffs on multiple imports, coupled with the possibility that California could lose most of its farmworkers if Trump makes good on his promise of mass deportations.
That will have a direct impact on the food produced right here in California.
“If a farmer cannot get a crop fully harvested due to a labor shortage, whatever crop does get picked will become more valuable and thus more expensive when it finally reaches the grocery store,” wrote Fresno Bee columnist Tad Weber, who lobbied for a bipartisan effort to exempt farmworkers from deportation.
That makes sense.
So does exempting food from the Trump tariffs.
While we can do without a lot of stuff — in fact, it would be good for the environment to reduce our consumption of just about everything — we cannot live without food, which is already expensive enough.
Truffles and caviar may be luxury items, but avocados and other fresh produce are not.
Americans already eat far too little fresh produce; according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, only one in 10 adults gets enough fruits or vegetables. Making those items more costly will only make matters worse.
For the sake of public health, let’s hope President Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports was merely a bluff — one that will never withstand the light of day.
If not, the pain we all experienced from recent years of high inflation could be just a preview of what’s to come.
This story was originally published December 13, 2024 at 5:00 AM.
