Farmers deserve trade war for backing Trump, critic says. But industry can’t fail | Opinion
Since farmers overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump for president, they deserve whatever results from the tariffs he imposes on foreign countries in his trade war.
So goes the argument in a provocative commentary by David Frum of The Atlantic.
Under the headline, “No tariff exemptions for American farmers,” Frum writes about how the nation’s agricultural regions backed Trump on Election Day.
Even in deep-blue California, farming counties went Trump’s way. In the San Joaquin Valley, voters in Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Madera counties all chose Trump over Democrat Kamala Harris. It marked the first time Fresno County had backed Trump in any of his presidential elections.
Farther north, Sacramento County — which is highly urbanized — went for Harris. Solano and Yolo counties, closer to the liberal Bay Area, also picked Harris. But Colusa, Sutter, Yuba, Placer, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties went for Trump. San Luis Obispo County chose Harris, but its coastal cities trend Democratic, and farming there is smaller in scale than in the Central Valley.
In making his case, Frum cites a study of the 444 most farm-dependent counties in the nation, places where earnings and jobs are heavily tied to agriculture.
Of those more than 400 counties, all but 11 went for Trump, the study by Investigate Midwest found.
“Tariffs are the dish that rural America ordered for everyone,” Frum writes. “Now, the dish has arrived at the table. For some reason, they do not want to partake themselves or pay their share of the bill.
“That’s not how it should work. What you serve to others you should eat yourself. And if rural America cannot choke down its portion, why must other Americans stomach theirs?”
Farmers face tariffs for their crops
Frum also points to large bailouts given to American farmers in Trump’s first term, when he levied tariffs on China and that country retaliated with tariffs on U.S. commodities.
In fact, a report by Politico found that Trump payouts to farmers zoomed from $11.5 billion in 2017 to nearly $33 billion in 2020.
Much of that money went to growers in the Midwest, who produce crops like soybeans and corn. Many of the crops grown in California are specialized and do not typically qualify for government subsidies.
That is not to say that the state’s growers will escape unscathed in any trade war. In fact, far from it.
A tit-for-tat trade battle with China will be damaging. The 2023 farm report by the California Agriculture Department found that nearly $2 billion in exports were sent from the state’s growers to China. Chief exports were pistachios, almonds and dairy products — mainstays of the San Joaquin Valley.
China was not the top export destination. That belonged to Canada, to where $3.6 billion in wine, strawberries and lettuce were shipped. Those are major crops in San Luis Obispo County.
Trump has levied a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. The tariff on Canada is 25%. Both nations have responded with retaliatory tariffs on American goods, including farm products.
Farmers are not the only ones seeking help in the trade war. Over last weekend Trump exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from the tariff on China. That helps American tech firms (almost all Apple’s iPhones are assembled in China, for example).
Trade war’s broader impacts
For the San Joaquin Valley, ensuring agriculture’s financial footing is a matter of regional survival. Much of the regional economy is built on farming, from primary jobs at the fields and orchards to secondary jobs at tractor dealers, chemical suppliers and the like.
Fresno, Tulare and Kern counties are regularly among the top 10 in California for farming based on gross earnings. Frum might have a point about getting what one wishes for, but he ignores the impacts more broadly if farms get shut down due to tariff impacts.
To borrow a phrase from the bank crisis of some years ago, California agriculture is too big to let fail.
This story was originally published April 15, 2025 at 5:30 AM with the headline "Farmers deserve trade war for backing Trump, critic says. But industry can’t fail | Opinion."