California’s redistricting proposal has a surprise in the fine print | Opinion
It is nearly certain that Californians will be asked to take part in a special election in November for the wonky but important issue of drawing political districts.
In this case, the state’s voters will be asked by Gov. Gavin Newsom and legislative Democratic leaders for permission to redraw congressional districts in the middle of the census cycle. Typically, such redistricting occurs after the census done every decade.
This unusual circumstance is due to President Donald Trump asking Republican lawmakers in Texas to reconfigure their districts so as to gain five more GOP-friendly seats. Texas is already a GOP-majority state and would become even more so.
With that, Newsom sounded the alarm and said California, where Democrats rule, must do the same so Trump cannot gain an unfair advantage in the House of Representatives.
In 2008, Californians voted in support of a state constitutional amendment that created a citizens panel for drawing up political boundaries. Up til then, the politicians did it themselves. The idea was to take politics out of it and make the boundaries more representative.
It has largely worked. California is considered one of the best states for having fair districts. But with the special election looming, that process could change.
Under the plan being put forth by Newsom, the Legislature — where Democrats have a supermajority — would redraw the congressional boundaries in such a way as to potentially gain five more members of their party to send to Washington, D.C.
Republican representation, by contrast, would drop to a mere handful.
Needless to say, both sides of the political aisle blaming the other for the potential to harm democracy.
Putting aside all the noise for a moment, it is interesting to read the fine print of the constitutional amendment that would allow the midterm redistricting to happen.
Surprise in redistricting plan
One learns that Texas (or Florida, another GOP-led state) does not have to be the trigger that sets off California’s redistricting.
As stated in the proposed amendment, California would redraw congressional districts “only if Texas, Florida, or another state adopts a new congressional district map that takes effect after August 1, 2025, and before January 1, 2031, and such redistricting is not required by a federal court order.”
The “another state” clause is open to interpretation. On its face, it could mean if another GOP-dominant state, like Indiana, engaged in redistricting, California could as well.
But read another way, “another state” could mean any other state — even one that is Democratic, as unlikely as that may seem.
I have already written how Newsom could just do redistricting to gain more Democrats in Congress, regardless of what Texas or Florida engage in. The amendment would open that door more to that possibility.
Gerrymandering in the future?
The amendment’s text makes reference several times to how redistricting will come back to the citizen’s panel in 2031, after the 2030 census.
But Democrats who have won redrawn seats in the 2026 election won’t want to risk losing their districts to redrawing by the Citizens Redistricting Commission.
Dan Walters, a longtime political commentator in Sacramento, writes in a CalMatters column that California could see as many as four congressional seats go away after the next census due to declining population growth.
“Democrats who win gerrymandered districts in 2026 would be reluctant to give them up,” Walters notes. “There could be immense pressure to protect them by returning to redistricting via the Legislature, the system in place for many decades prior to creation of the commission process in 2008.”
In the campaign leading to the Nov. 4 election, there will be lots of talk by Newsom and Democratic leaders about how redistricting must be done now to save democracy and fight Trump’s MAGA agenda.
In the short run, that is probably right. But what are the longer-term concerns that should also be taken into consideration? What if the Legislature takes back redistricting from the citizens commission? Would that be good?
Voters should give these questions serious consideration.
This story was originally published August 20, 2025 at 10:05 AM.