If Prop. 50 passes, Republicans in California will be just a whisper | Opinion
Three recent polls show Proposition 50, the measure to redraw California’s congressional districts to gain five more potential Democratic seats, will win easily in Tuesday’s special election.
The Public Policy Institute of California poll, taken between Oct. 7-14, shows 56% of likely voters supporting the measure. A CBS News poll taken Oct. 16-21 puts support at 62%. And a polling done Oct. 20-27 by the Berkeley Institute of Government Studies shows 60% of registered voters backing the proposition.
A citizens commission designed California’s current congressional maps. The proposed new districts have been drawn by political operatives working for the Democratic Party. Proposition 50 allows that system to remain through 2030.
If voters approve the proposition, and then Democrats win five new districts and hold their own next year in the other districts, California would send 48 Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives, and just four Republicans.
This would occur against a backdrop of Democrats domination in Sacramento: The party holds supermajorities in the state Assembly and Senate. Republicans are powerless to oppose Democratic priorities.
Does that signal the death knell of the GOP in the Golden State? I put that question to longtime Republican activist Mike Madrid of Sacramento.
“People have asked me that question for the last 30 years,” he said, chuckling, in a Monday phone interview. “This is not a death knell for the GOP, but it certainly does not help.”
In the age of Trump, Republicans will continue to represent around a third of the electorate in California, Madrid said. “They are not extinct like dinosaurs, but they are surviving like small lizards.”
The most recent party registration data reported by the California Secretary of State shows Democrats with 45% of the registered voters to the GOP’s 25.2%. No party preference is 22.6%.
As the head of the Republican Party nationally, President Donald Trump may have won the White House, but he did dismally in California. Last year he got only 38.3% of the state’s votes.
Republican pockets
That said, there are pockets in California where Republicans show up.
In Stanislaus County, 36.18% of the registered voters are Republicans. Democrats are at 36.05%, which is why the 13th District congressional seat held by Democrat Adam Gray is one of the most competitive in the nation.
San Luis Obispo County is 38% Democratic in registration to 35.16% Republican. Fresno County is 37% Democrat to 33% GOP.
Merced and Sacramento counties have 10% or greater Democratic voter majorities.
Republicans made a lot of noise when Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed Proposition 50 as a way to combat Republican gerrymandering on Texas — the state where pliant Republicans in the legislature redrew lines to potentially gain five more GOP seats.
California Republicans cried foul when Newsom said his state should respond in kind. But lately, the GOP has folded its tents and seemingly accepted what is most inevitable. For one thing, the party has stopped buying ad time on television to air No on 50 spots.
As Politico reporter Will McCarthy puts it: “As Democrats pummel the state with Yes on 50 advertising, the Republican side of the battle has gone quiet. Major GOP donors and party leaders have effectively vanished from the front lines.”
Bad way to redistrict
Make no mistake: Proposition 50 is a bad way to determine congressional representation. The citizens commission was the gold standard because it took drawing the lines away from self-serving politicians. California absolutely must get back to that process in 2030. But it will be challenging. You can be sure the Democrats in power in Sacramento won’t want to let go.
Madrid does not mince words about Proposition 50.
“It is very toxic. This is far more corrosive to democratic institutions than anybody recognizes. This is cheating. There is no other way around it. Gerrymandering is an 18th century word for cheating.”
Newsom is right that Trump started it. Polls show the majority of Californians agree. Proposition 50 will surely pass, Republicans will become even more marginalized in the state, and then it’s onto next year’s midterms elections. For better or worse, the politics are just beginning.
