The fluctuation in Sacramento’s homelessness counts explained | Opinion

Every other January, hundreds of volunteers canvass the streets in Sacramento County to conduct the Point-in-Time (PIT) Count, the federally required census of unhoused people.

What they observe is what they report — regardless of what any politician, agency or interest group hopes the numbers will show. The non-profit Sacramento Steps Forward — where I serve as CEO — is the administrator of the PIT Count. We act independently.

The PIT is the only federally required measure of homelessness in a community. But it doesn’t paint the full picture — nor does the Homeless Information Management System, a database we also administer. Viewed together, these two data points provide a fuller understanding of homelessness in Sacramento County.

Importantly, the PIT Count is not a full census of Sacramento County, which spans roughly 965 square miles. Every PIT Count that has been conducted in Sacramento County has relied on statistical sampling.

While some aspects of the count have evolved over the years, the core methodology has remained consistent: canvassing all areas with known high densities of unhoused people and sampling areas where homelessness is less visible.

Although academic circles debate methodology, using Census tracts as the geographic unit — as we do here in Sacramento — is well established nationally and recommended by researchers and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s own PIT methodology guide.

Here in Sacramento, we have contracted Simtech Solutions to provide technological and methodological support for the latest and upcoming counts. Simtech is a well-established firm that collaborates with over 50 communities nationwide. Our PIT Count oversight committee recommended hiring Simtech starting in 2024 so Sacramento could more easily tap into its national network of PIT subject matter experts.

Why PIT Counts undercount — and why that matters

PIT Counts are widely recognized nationwide as an undercount of homelessness. No single-night survey — especially one conducted outdoors in January — can capture every unhoused person. Volunteers can only count those they see.

Any number of factors — from weather conditions to enforcement activity — can influence visibility on the night of the count.

For these reasons and many others, the PIT Count has never been an exact science. It is imperfect but useful. Importantly, it is the mandated tool for comparing trends across communities.

The other population view we have comes through the Homeless Information Management System. Every day, homeless service providers use our database to track their engagement with people who use shelter, outreach, housing programs and supportive services.

Like the PIT Count, the Homeless Information Management System also has limitations. Its accuracy improves the more service providers participate, and it does not capture information on unhoused people who are disconnected from services.

That’s why Sacramento Steps Forward does not recommend relying on PIT or Homeless Information Management System data alone. Because the two systems measure different things in different ways, they will never match — and they are not meant to. Used together, they paint a far more accurate, contextualized picture of homelessness in our community.

Making sense of the 2024 PIT Count

The last PIT Count, conducted in January 2024, estimated 6,615 unhoused people in Sacramento County. Compared to 2022, overall homelessness had dropped by 29%, and the number of people living outdoors fell 41%.

Did homelessness decrease by exactly 29 percent? Likely not. As noted, the PIT is not an exact science. But that also means the 2022 PIT Count finding that homelessness had soared 67% from 2019 was not exact either.

Still, the broad trends make sense. During the COVID pandemic, the number of visible encampments surged — four to five times higher than in 2019 — making people far easier to count. By contrast, in 2024, visible encampments declined significantly again — four to five times lower than in 2022 — making unsheltered homelessness more difficult to spot and count.

Visibility wasn’t the only factor. Between 2020 and 2024, Sacramento saw major improvements to the homeless response that helped explain the lower count. The county increased permanent housing units by 30%, rental assistance by 25% and expanded prevention efforts, among other achievements. Apartment rents, based by an industry monitor, also decreased slightly.

What current data tells us — and what it doesn’t

Between January and November of this year, our Homeless Information Management System database has been tracking more people. The monthly number of people actively engaging in homeless services has increased from about 5,000 to over 9,000.

Does this mean that homelessness has nearly doubled? Not necessarily. Factors include expansions of the use of this database by providers, better service and outreach to homeless people and an increase in those reporting homelessness.

Today, nearly two years later, a host of economic and policy shifts are influencing homelessness in Sacramento.

To help our community keep track of our information, Sacramento Steps Forward now hosts a public data dashboard with monthly updates on the number of unhoused people engaging in homeless services throughout the previous month.

Looking ahead

Our next PIT Count is in January. The work of our volunteers is vital to helping Sacramento understand and respond to the evolving landscape of homelessness. If you want to see how it’s done, sign up on the Sacramento PIT Count website. It’s a way for everyday citizens to help us better manage homelessness in Sacramento County.

Lisa Bates is the CEO of Sacramento Steps Forward.