Can Matt Mahan shake up California’s deadly dull race for governor? | Opinion

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has a chance to completely upend the governor’s race now that he’s announced his candidacy.

Mahan is a pragmatist who could excite voters eager for results and proven leadership over the hyper-partisan, utterly performative politics of our times.

But is that what voters actually want?

It’s an important question that will determine California’s future.

Mahan enters a crowded field of candidates struggling to resonate with voters. The field includes current and former members of Congress, a few current and former statewide office holders, a billionaire, a former assembly speaker, a former Los Angeles mayor and even a former Fox News TV host. But solid resumes and name ID are two different things.

Mahan, mayor of the third most populous city in California, comes in with the same disadvantage, though he is presumably backed by local Silicon Valley money to help get his name out there, plus he has the chance at free press in the coveted Bay Area media market. But he needs a winning message as well.

A back-to-basics guy

As mayor, Mahan has positioned himself as a back-to-basics guy, focusing on core functions of government, like quality streets, public safety, addressing homelessness and bringing accountability to city government. Unlike many Democrats, Mahan has fought for Proposition 36, which increased the penalties for retail theft and drug possession. Overwhelmingly passed by frustrated voters last November, Prop. 36 has been starved of funding for additional mental health treatment by Sacramento Democrats.

Mahan’s support for Prop. 36, his willingness to break from Democrats reflexively opposed to laws that stiffen punishments for criminals, sets him apart from leaders of his party who have put liberal ideology above common sense approaches to problems plaguing California. By opposing Prop. 36 because of its stiffer penalties, Democrats set themselves up as the party standing in the way of drug treatment funding contained within one of the more popular ballot measures in recent history.

On the issue of homelessness, Mahan has focused on providing temporary shelter for homeless individuals, but he added accountability on the part of homeless people to the equation. Mahan persuaded the San Jose City Council to overwhelmingly approve a “Responsibility to Shelter” initiative that made it a violation for homeless people to refuse shelter three times in an 18-months.

“Mayor Mahan’s initiative provides a necessary framework to ensure resources are used while addressing the growing safety risks of encampments,” said Jerry May, president of the San Jose Firefighters Local 230.

Californians have consistently listed homelessness as one of the top issues in the state, but it’s unclear if voters would prioritize someone with a proven track record on the issue over more performative campaigners with no results to speak of.

What do voters want?

According to the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), voters are split on whether they want experience and a proven record or new ideas and a different approach, but this could be an opportunity for Mahan.

As the PPIC poll notes, a majority of Democratic likely voters want experience and a proven record, which should give Mahan an advantage over most of the competition who can’t as easily point to real on-the-ground results.

On the flip side, majorities of both independent and Republican likely voters want new ideas and different approaches, to which Mahan could argue his back-to-basics record is in fact a new approach compared to the lack of results that has frustrated Californians for years.

If that message resonates, Mahan could not only attract Democratic voters, but also seriously threaten Republican candidates by siphoning off even a sliver of Republican voters.

It’s a stretch to think that many partisan primary voters would flock to a Democrat while there’s still Republicans on the ballot. However, Republicans skeptical of GOP candidate ever making it past 40% in a general election against a Democrat might be persuaded.

Republicans’ best shot of winning the governor race is for the leading candidates, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and current Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, to advance as the top two.

Right now the race is remarkably close among the four highest polling candidates and if Mahan gained even a little traction with Republican voters he could all but sink Bianco and Hilton’s chances.

The Republican chairman of the Santa Clara Republican Party recently came out against Mahan as governor, though the case was somewhat weak. As mayor, Mahan has supported some tax measures, which is pretty standard for local government officials of both parties.

A choice for Republicans

However, Republican voters would have to stomach Mahan’s support for Proposition 50, the corrupt gerrymandering plan pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom and national Democrats. Some could actually ignore this when considering other Democrats seeking to be governor.

Mahan is, after all, a through-and-through Democrat. A recent poll gauging support for Mahan, reported by San Jose Spotlight, suggested that as a gubernatorial candidate Mahan will not shy away from his Democrat bona fides.

“Matt Mahan is a Democrat who is pro-choice, pro-gun safety and pro-environment,” the poll reads. “He is also pro-accountability for how tax dollars are spent, and pro-public safety including more police and more shelter and services for those who accept shelter. As governor, he will stand up for Democratic values, but also ensure Californians have a government that is accountable, fiscally responsible, and delivers on his promises.”

In all, it’s a fine line Mahan has to walk to cobble together a winning coalition. In order to be successful, he’ll actually have to unite people and run on successes.

The real question is whether California voters actually want to be united and if they are motivated by success.

Matt Fleming is an opinion writer living in Placer County. He is a special correspondent for McClatchy. Email him at flemingwords@gmail.com or follow him on X at @flemingwords.

This story was originally published January 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM.