How the rise of independents will shape the 2026 election | Opinion
According to a recent Gallup poll, independent registration is at 45% — an all-time high. This makes independents the leading political group in the United States, with more support than both Republicans or Democrats. Recognizing the rising importance of independents — as well as the lack of support for the two major parties — is essential to crafting a way forward that better represents the will of American voters.
Yet, despite sinking party popularity, the political dinner table in Congress still only has two kinds of chairs: One for Republicans and one for Democrats. Though Congress is supposed to represent the people, its seats are fixed and taken, and new guests who don’t fit partisan labels are entirely unwelcome.
Recently, Rep. Kevin Kiley made the decision to switch his party affiliation from Republican to independent to better serve the people of California that elected him to represent their interests in Washington.
As a result, he was formally removed from his committee assignments, despite several years as a well-regarded member of the GOP caucus in good standing. Becoming an independent shouldn’t be an act that bars you from engaging in the legislative process. But he no longer meets the criteria the parties set for membership in their exclusive — and out-of-touch — private clubs.
Voters know that this is absurd, and it’s reasons like this that both parties are cratering in popularity among the general public.
Independents belong at the table and can help Congressional performance overall by serving as voices of reason in an increasingly irrational political world. Congress isn’t known for constructive dialogue, mutual respect or admiration these days. It’s more like an awkward Thanksgiving dinner in which the loose-cannon uncle gets into a shouting match with your aunt.
But with independents at the table, they can deescalate the situation and sit in the middle of the Republicans and Democrats.
This year will be the first time in history that a movement of well-funded, viable, independent candidates contests House and Senate seats. The anti-two-party sentiment that Gallup captured in January is crystallizing: Legitimate candidates are looking to join the conversation to make sure that the voices of their constituents are best represented.
Independent governor bids are blossoming in places like Arizona, Michigan and Tennessee. Meanwhile, several Senate races in states like Montana, Nebraska, Kansas and Idaho are seeing campaigns from viable independents. When it comes to the House, independents are contesting nearly a dozen seats. This is the influx of independent-minded political activity that 45% of Americans want.
Kiley said in a recent interview that he plans to caucus with the House GOP, primarily because as of today, independents have no choice but to squeeze into the table where they can. The only two independents in the Senate, representing Vermont and Maine, currently caucus with the Democratic Party. But if Americans elected four or five independents in this year’s midterm elections, independents wouldn’t have to seek to squeeze in — they could form their own table.
This would powerfully reshape Congress. Whenever a major vote occurred, Republicans and Democrats would be lining up and seeking to squeeze into the independent table to gain the necessary votes to push their respective legislation through.
Congressional margins today are razor-thin. Just three independents would fundamentally alter the necessary numbers needed.
America needs more people that put country over party. It’s easier said than done when the entire structure of Congress is predicated upon adherence to a two-party system that is fundamentally broken.
The defining story of the 2026 election cycle will be the rise of the independents. Republicans and Democrats must make room at the Congressional table — independents are coming.
Adam Brandon is the senior advisor to the Independent Center, a nonprofit organization of political independents.