Kings ‘want all the smoke’ from Grizzlies, Blazers, Pelicans in red-hot playoff race
The Kings better lace them up tight because the race for the eighth seed in the Western Conference will be an all-out sprint and two teams got a headstart under the NBA bubble plan.
There are 22 teams inside the bubble, but most have secured their spots in the playoffs. Some might not approach seeding games with a great sense of urgency, but in the West there are six teams that are not just in the bubble. They are on the bubble, all vying for the last remaining postseason bid.
The Kings will have to outrun the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers and New Orleans Pelicans in eight seeding games over 14 days at Walt Disney World Resort near Orlando, and then they’ll probably have to win two play-in games. The San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns will be in the bubble, too, but the odds are really stacked against them. The Grizzlies and Blazers, on the other hand, have some built-in advantages we will explain down below.
Kings guard Buddy Hield doesn’t care about the odds. Hield knows Sacramento has a chance to end a 13-year playoff drought and the Bahamian sharpshooter is never shy about taking his shot.
“It’s an eight-game tournament and we want all the smoke,” Hield said. “We’re going to compete and try to win this tournament.”
If the eighth- and ninth-place teams finish within four games of each other, they will meet under the play-in scenario to determine which team will receive the No. 8 seed. The ninth-place team would have to win twice on consecutive days to secure the playoff berth. The eighth-place team would need only one win to advance to the postseason.
So who’s it going to be? Will Damian Lillard cap an MVP-caliber season by leading the Blazers back to the playoffs for the seventh year in a row? Or is it time for emerging young stars like De’Aaron Fox, Ja Morant and Zion Williamson to shine?
Let’s take a look at the contenders and their chances of reaching the playoffs, as calculated by FiveThirtyEight.
Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 32-33 (.492)
Schedule: Trail Blazers, Spurs, Pelicans, Jazz, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics, Bucks
538 playoff chances: 31%
The Grizzlies benefited immensely from the shortened schedule, but they still have to find a way to scratch out two or three wins to make sure they don’t lose their grip on the eighth spot. Their schedule is still daunting, but it’s not half as bad as it would have been before the coronavirus shutdown.
The Grizzlies had a 3½-game lead over the Blazers, Kings and Pelicans with 17 games remaining. They would have faced the eight teams listed above plus additional games against the Thunder, Blazers, Pelicans, Celtics, Mavericks, Nuggets, 76ers and Rockets. If that wasn’t difficult enough, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke were out with injuries.
That lead was going to disappear faster than a plate of Memphis barbecue, but now the Grizzlies only have to hold on for eight games. Assuming they can do that, they would enjoy the added benefit of needing only one win in the two-game play-in series. Even if the Grizzlies go 2-6, the Kings, Pelicans or Blazers would have to go 6-2 to leapfrog them for eighth.
Justise Winslow will miss the rest of the season after suffering a hip injury in practice July 21, but Jackson and Clarke are healthy now and Morant is on the verge of winning Rookie of the Year.
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 29-37 (.439)
Schedule: Grizzlies, Celtics, Rockets, Nuggets, Clippers, 76ers, Mavericks, Nets
538 playoff chances: 11%
The Blazers don’t have an easy schedule either, but there are two big reasons they could be dangerous. There’s also one little itty-bitty reason they have a significant advantage over the Kings and Pelicans.
Let’s start with the big reasons. Jusuf Nurkic, a 7-foot center, and Zach Collins, a 6-11 forward, had time to get healthy during the shutdown, and now they’re back. Nurkic missed the first 66 games after suffering a gruesome leg injury in March 2019. Collins missed all but three games due to shoulder surgery.
Nurkic, in particular, is a game changer for the Blazers. In 2018-19, the “Bosnian Beast” averaged 15.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.4 blocks. Coach Terry Stotts can now put Lillard, CJ McCollum and Carmelo Anthony on the floor with Nurkic, fellow 7-footer Hassan Whiteside or Collins, giving Portland an experienced, veteran group with an experienced, veteran coach.
There’s also a much smaller reason to like the Blazers’ chances. The NBA decided to use winning percentages to break ties because some teams played more games than others before the shutdown. The Blazers’ .439 winning percentage is higher than the .438 winning percentage of the Kings and Pelicans, which essentially gives Portland a one-game lead over Sacramento and New Orleans before play begins. The Kings and Pelicans will have to win at least one more game than the Blazers to pass them.
Sacramento Kings
Record: 28-36 (.438)
Schedule: Spurs, Magic, Mavericks, Pelicans, Nets, Rockets, Pelicans, Lakers
538 playoff chances: 8%
The Kings were quietly coming for the No. 8 season before the coronavirus shutdown. They were warming up for a game against the Pelicans that might have catapulted one team or the other into the playoffs when the season was abruptly suspended.
The Kings had won seven of their last 10 games and 13 of 20, a stretch that included two wins over the Clippers and Grizzlies as well as victories over the Heat and Blazers. Only the Lakers and Thunder had a better record than Sacramento over the last 10 games. Now the Kings have an opportunity to finish what they started.
Getting here hasn’t been easy for the Kings. Four players tested positive for COVID-19. All four were late arrivals in the bubble, but Hield, Harrison Barnes and Jabari Parker will all be available when the Kings play the Spurs on Friday. Alex Len, who developed more serious symptoms during his 24-day battle with COVID-19, is not expected to play Friday, coach Luke Walton said.
The Kings got more unfortunate news when Richaun Holmes was placed under a 10-day quarantine order for inadvertently leaving the NBA bubble and Marvin Bagley III went down with a foot injury. Bagley is out for the rest of the season, but Holmes and Barnes are back to help Fox, Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kent Bazemore, Nemanja Bjelica, Cory Joseph and Harry Giles III make their playoff push.
The Kings can build momentum with wins over the Spurs and Magic. They will have two huge games against the Pelicans Aug. 6 and Aug. 11. If they can win those games and pick up one or two more victories over the Mavericks, Nets, Rockets or Lakers, these Kings could be the ones to bring playoff fever back to Sacramento for the first time since 2006.
New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 28-36 (.438)
Schedule: Jazz, Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings, Wizards, Spurs, Kings, Magic
538 playoff chances: 49%
The Pelicans are a popular choice to overtake the Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed. That would likely set up a first-round matchup against the Lakers with no shortage of storylines: Zion vs. LeBron; Anthony Davis vs. the Pelicans; Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart vs. the Lakers.
New Orleans has the easiest schedule among contenders for the No. 8 seed. The Jazz and Clippers are the only .500 teams the Pelicans will face. If the Pelicans win those first two games, they will be rolling downhill going into their next two games against the Grizzlies and Kings. As noted earlier, the Kings and Pelicans will play each other twice, and those games loom large in this playoff race.
Williamson reentered the bubble Friday and returned to practice Tuesday after leaving for eight days to tend to a family medical emergency. His status for Thursday’s game against the Clippers was questionable, but it was widely believed he would play.
The Pelicans’ chances could hinge on their ability to establish rhythm and timing quickly. Zion’s absence doesn’t help in that regard, but New Orleans has already integrated him on the fly once this season after he missed the first 44 games with a knee injury. That didn’t seem to bother the Pelicans, who posted an eye-popping net rating of plus-13.9 with Williamson on the court over 19 games.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 27-36 (.429)
Schedule: Kings, Grizzlies, 76ers, Nuggets, Jazz, Pelicans, Rockets, Jazz
538 playoff chances: <1%
If this is truly the end of San Antonio’s extraordinary playoff streak, we should take this opportunity to pay our respects.
In 1996-97, then-Spurs general manager Gregg Popovich fired coach Bob Hill after a 3-15 start and named himself head coach. That summer, the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan, who would go on to win Rookie of the Year while helping David Robinson lead the Spurs to the first of 22 consecutive playoff appearances, all under Popovich.
The Spurs are tied for the longest playoff streak in NBA history. During that streak, they set an incredible record with 18 consecutive 50-win seasons from 1999-2000 to 2016-17. They won six Western Conference titles and five NBA championships along the way.
To keep their playoff streak alive, the Spurs will have to run even hotter than the Kings, Pelicans, Blazers and Grizzlies to overcome a 4-game deficit. Leapfrogging all four teams is virtually impossible, especially with LaMarcus Aldridge out due to shoulder surgery. The Spurs’ streak is over, but their excellence over the past quarter-century of NBA basketball will never be forgotten.
Phoenix Suns
Record: 26-39 (.400)
Schedule: Wizards, Mavericks, Clippers, Pacers, Heat, Thunder, 76ers, Mavericks
538 playoff chances: <1%
The Suns are two games behind the Spurs and six back of the Grizzlies as play resumes. They are not a serious player in this game and will have no bearing on the proceedings for the No. 8 seed in the West, given that they don’t play the Grizzlies, Blazers, Pelicans, Kings or Spurs.
However, the Suns could play spoilers against teams that are jockeying for position higher in the standings in both conferences. They have two games against the Mavericks, who are seventh in the West, and one against the Thunder, which is tied for fifth, 1½ games ahead of Dallas. The Suns will also play the Heat, Pacers and 76ers, who are within two games of each other for the fourth seed in the East.
Kings upcoming schedule
July 31 vs. Spurs, 5 p.m. (NBCS)
Aug. 2 vs. Magic, 3 p.m. (NBCS, NBA TV)
Aug. 4 vs. Mavericks, 11:30 a.m. (NBCS)
Aug. 6 vs. Pelicans, 10:30 a.m. (NBCS, NBA TV)
Aug. 7 vs. Nets, 2 p.m. (NBCS)
Aug. 9 vs. Rockets, 5 p.m. (NBCS)
Aug. 11 vs. Pelicans, 6 p.m. (NBCS, TNT)
Aug. 13 vs. Lakers, TBD (NBCS)
