How Kings can pass Blazers, Grizzlies, Suns, Spurs, Pelicans for No. 8 seed in West
The Kings would be in a more enviable position if they had managed to win just one of their first three games in the NBA bubble, but now they have to traverse the narrowest of paths to reach the playoffs.
The Kings (29-39) hope to build momentum when they play the Brooklyn Nets (32-36) on Friday after beating the New Orleans Pelicans 140-125 on Thursday. They know they have virtually no margin for error.
“We’re still a little bit behind,” Kings point guard De’Aaron Fox said following the win over New Orleans. “Obviously we know if we drop this game, it puts the Pelicans ahead of us and we just drop very far behind, so we knew this was a must win. I think we came in here and we handled business, and every win gives us a little bit more hope.”
The Kings must win at least three of their last four games to finish ahead of either the Memphis Grizzlies or Portland Trail Blazers. They would also need help from other teams to finish ahead of the Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans.
These six teams are vying for the No. 8 seed in what could be a wild finish to the Western Conference playoff race at Walt Disney World Resort near Orlando. The Grizzlies are eighth in the West, a half-game ahead of the Blazers. The Suns and Spurs are 1½ games behind the Blazers. The Kings and Pelicans are just a half-game back of them.
The eighth- and ninth-place teams will face off under the play-in scenario. The team that finishes ninth will have to beat the eighth-place team twice in two days to advance to the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.
The Kings haven’t been to the playoffs since 2006. They will have to finish ahead of four of the six contenders to reach the play-in, but the Grizzlies are in a free fall and the Suns, Spurs, Kings and Pelicans are all within a half-game of each other with four games remaining.
Memphis Grizzlies (32-37)
The Grizzlies are 0-4 with losses to the Blazers, Spurs, Pelicans and Utah Jazz, and now they’ve lost Jaren Jackson Jr., who will miss the rest of the season with a torn meniscus.
The Grizzlies only need one or two wins to assure themselves of at least a ninth-place finish, but the scheduled is daunting with remaining games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks. The Grizzlies will play the Thunder on Friday. Oklahoma City is battling Utah and the Houston Rockets for the No. 4 seed in the West, although the Thunder will be without Dennis Schroder, the team’s third-leading scorer at 18.9 points per game.
The Grizzlies might catch more of a break over their final three games. The Bucks have clinched the No. 1 seed, the Raptors have secured the No. 2 seed and the Celtics are all but assured of the No. 3 seed in the East, increasing the likelihood those teams will rest star players before the playoffs.
If the Grizzlies go 0-4 in their last four games, the Kings will have to go 3-1 to pass them. If the Grizzlies go 1-3, the Kings will have to go 4-0.
Portland Trail Blazers (31-38)
The Blazers have proven to be very dangerous with big men Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins returning from major injuries to rejoin Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony and Hassan Whiteside.
Portland has also unlocked the potential of Gary Trent Jr., a player the Kings drafted with the 37th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft before trading him to the Blazers for two second-round picks. Over the first four games, Trent averaged 20.3 points on 27-of-46 (.587) shooting from the field and 22-of-35 (.629) shooting from 3-point range.
The Blazers are 3-1 in the bubble with wins over the Grizzlies, Rockets and Denver Nuggets and a four-point loss to the Celtics. They have a chance to overtake the Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed, but they still have to play the Los Angeles Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers, Dallas Mavericks and Nets.
Most of those teams should be motivated to win. The Clippers are just a half-game ahead of the Nuggets for the No. 2 seed in the West. The 76ers are trying to catch the Indiana Pacers for the fifth seed in the East and the Nets will do whatever they can with a depleted roster to hold onto the seventh seed in the East.
If the Blazers go 0-4 in their last four games, the Kings will have to go 3-1 to pass them. If the Blazers go 1-3, the Kings will have to go 4-0. The Blazers can assure themselves of a spot in the play-in with two more wins.
Phoenix Suns (30-39)
The Phoenix Suns have been the biggest surprise in the NBA bubble, going unbeaten in their first four games with wins over the Washington Wizards, Mavericks, Clippers and Pacers.
The Suns still have to play the Miami Heat, Thunder, 76ers and Mavericks. The Heat and 76ers are battling the Pacers for the No. 4 seed in the East and the Thunder is in a three-way race with the Jazz and Rockets for the No. 4 seed in the West. However, Jimmy Butler has missed the past two games for the Heat and now the 76ers are missing Ben Simmons due to a knee injury.
Devin Booker has been sensational for the resurgent Suns, averaging 28.0 points per game in the bubble. Phoenix has also received two double-doubles from enter Deandre Ayton, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, who had 23 points and 10 rebounds in Thursday’s win over the Pacers.
If the Kings go 4-0 and the Suns go 3-1 in their final four games, both teams would finish 33-40 and the Kings would win the tiebreaker. They went 2-2 in head-to-head games during the regular season, but the Kings have a higher winning percentage within the Pacific Division.
San Antonio Spurs (29-38)
This was widely projected to be the end of San Antonio’s record-tying streak of 22 consecutive NBA playoff appearances under coach Gregg Popovich — and maybe it will be — but the Spurs have been another bubble surprise. Despite being without LaMarcus Aldridge and Bryan Forbes, the Spurs knocked off the Kings and Grizzlies in their first two games and battled in a two-point loss to the 76ers and a six-point loss to the Nuggets.
San Antonio now holds a half-game lead over the Kings. The Spurs still have to play the Jazz, Pelicans and Rockets before facing the Jazz again in their final seeding game. These are all teams with something to play for, but the Spurs got a gift Thursday when the Jazz announced starters Mike Conley (knee), Donovan Mitchell (leg), Royce O’Neale (calf) and Rudy Gobert (rest) will not play against San Antonio on Friday.
If the Spurs go 2-2 in their last four games, the Kings will have to go 3-1 to pass them. If the Spurs go 3-1, the Kings will have to go 4-0.
Sacramento Kings (29-39)
How did the Kings dig this hole for themselves? They opened with a 129-120 loss to the Spurs, followed that with a 132-116 loss to the Magic and then squandered a late lead in a 114-110 overtime loss to the Mavericks.
Sacramento gave up a 19-0 run to a San Antonio team that was missing three of its four leading scorers and then trailed by as many as 36 in an embarrassing effort against Orlando. The Kings turned in a much stronger start against the Mavericks on Tuesday, but this time they couldn’t finish. They finally broke through with a win over the Pelicans on Thursday.
Bogdan Bogdanovic bounced back from a 1-of-15 shooting performance against Dallas to score a career-high 35 points against New Orleans. Fox continued to shine, finishing with 30 points and 10 assists.
The Kings also got stronger contributions from the likes of Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes and Alex Len. Barnes and Len missed time with COVID-19. Holmes missed time under quarantine after breaking bubble rules.
The Kings will play the Nets on Friday, the Rockets the Sunday, the Pelicans again Tuesday and the Los Angeles Lakers in their final seeding game Thursday. The first three teams have something to play for — and the Rockets might be getting Russell Westbrook (quad) and Eric Gordon (ankle) back — but the Lakers have clinched the No. 1 seed and may choose to rest starters such as LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
New Orleans Pelicans (29-39)
The Pelicans were viewed as the most likely team to secure the No. 8 seed due to a favorable schedule and the presence of rookie sensation Zion Williamson, but they lost three of their first four games.
New Orleans opened with a 106-104 loss to the Jazz, followed with a 126-103 loss to the Clippers and then beat the Grizzlies 109-99 before losing to the Kings. Their chances of reaching the playoffs have dropped dramatically, but like the Kings they still have a narrow path to the postseason if they get hot.
The Pelicans will play the Wizards on Friday and the Spurs on Sunday. They will face the Kings again Tuesday before playing the Magic in their final seeding game.
The Wizards have yet to win a game and could be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Pelicans. Sacramento and San Antonio will likely have something to play for and the Magic will be trying to beat out the Nets for the No. 7 seed in the East.
This story was originally published August 7, 2020 at 4:00 AM.
