Takeaways and question marks: What to make of the Sacramento Kings as midseason approaches
The Sacramento Kings have played 38 games, meaning they’re nearing the halfway point of their 82-game season. A good case can be made they’ve played well enough to bolster expectations beyond just reaching the play-in tournament. They entered the weekend holding the No. 5 seed in the crowded Western Conference and had 20 wins by the first week of January for the first time since 2005.
They’ve gotten to this point by way of a high-powered offense, improved play on the road (they’re 9-9 away from Golden 1 Center after going 14-27 last season) and De’Aaron Fox’s clutch fourth-quarter scoring. But they still have to make strides on defense if they’re going to stay in the playoff hunt or advance beyond the first round.
Let’s take a look at some of the key developments and questions going forward.
Sabonis making case for All-NBA
Center Domantas Sabonis is having the best season of his eight-year career. Sabonis and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic are the only players in the NBA to rank in the top 10 in total rebounds and assists. Sabonis is averaging a league-best 12.4 boards while shooting 62% from the floor, better than his previous best of 59% in 2018-19, a year before his two consecutive All-Star appearances with the Indiana Pacers. He also leads the NBA in double-doubles.
Sabonis is the hub of the offense. The Kings are at their best when he’s creating open shots for teammates by way of dribble hand-offs, screens or passes from the elbow. And when Sacramento’s shooters are covered (the Kings are seventh in the NBA, making 13.1 3-pointers per game), he can bully his way down low and finish near the basket.
Thirty-eight games in, Sabonis not only has a case for his third All-Star appearance (the Kings should have at least one All-Star given their place in the standings), but the son of Arvydas has a chance to get All-NBA recognition. Particularly if the league continues to require one center for the three All-NBA teams.
“For me,” Fox said after the Dec. 30 win over the Jazz, “it’s Jokic, (Joel) Embiid and him. Those are the top three centers in the league. He’s an All-Star, no question, but I think he has a chance to be an All-NBA player this year. So with him playing the way he plays, with him doing everything that he does for us, both offensively and defensively, he’s definitely in that conversation.”
Sabonis also has intangible value to the Kings. He leads the team in minutes and returned just one game after suffering an avulsion fracture to his right thumb. He elected to play through the injury rather than have surgery, which could have required missing two months. Brown has often lauded his center for his toughness and how hard he plays.
The numbers also speak to his value. With Sabonis, the Kings are outscoring opponents by 5.7 points per 100 possessions. Their 119.2 offensive rating would rank as the best offense in the NBA (Boston leads the league with a 117.2 rating).
Sacramento without Sabonis has been outscored by 100 points in 553 minutes, which should have the front office trying to figure out how to improve when he sits.
Regardless, there’s little doubt the Tyrese Haliburton trade has been a boon for both the Kings and Pacers.
Defense remains problematic
There’s a clear case against Sabonis’ All-NBA campaign: his team’s defense.
It’s not all on him. Opponents recently have pulled Sabonis away from the basket in pick-and-rolls and drives to create more space in the lane. It’s led to the Kings ranking dead last in the NBA over the last 15 games by allowing 57.9 points in the paint. That number could be the reason voters pick someone like Miami’s Bam Adebayo for the third team over Sabonis. For the season, Sacramento ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency (while ranking fifth on offense).
Brown was asked Friday if he believes his current roster has the defensive talent to defend the rim without a traditional rim protector at center.
“One-hundred percent, I believe we can do it. No doubt in my mind,” Brown said. “Because we’ve done it in spurts. At this point in the year, it’s about trying to be consistent when we do.”
It means the Kings’ perimeter defenders simply have to be better. Brown mentioned his former team, the Golden State Warriors, who were strong defensively despite not having a traditional shot-blocking center. Their best defensive lineup often included 6-foot-5 Draymond Green playing the five.
“What they understood was they did their work early,” Brown said. “They knew their assignments on the back side before the ball started getting dribbled to the rim and they went vertical at the right time or took a charge at the right time.
“... So we can’t do it for a game or two and think our offense is going to turn on (and save us). … But we ain’t gonna make shots all the time. So anyone out there who thinks we’re going to beat teams just because we can score, because our offense is dynamic … it’s fool’s gold — and you don’t know basketball if you think that’s going to last and win at a high level.”
Which leads to questions about personnel. The Kings don’t have anyone who has played high-level defense in the NBA for any prolonged stretch. Second-year guard Davion Mitchell is the best defender in the rotation (his plus-3.5 net rating for the season is third on the team) while swingman KZ Okpala is the only true defense-first player on the roster.
Okpala has played just 194 minutes on the season — 12th on the team — but has a team-best 104.3 defensive rating when he’s on the floor. The 23-year-old appeared in seven straight games before not getting into Wednesday’s loss to the Hawks despite getting the Defensive Player of the Game chain the night before in Utah. He only scored three total points in those seven games combined while teams haven’t worried about him as a shooting threat.
Said Brown: “It’s a job that I have to continue to take on and find the right balance, and try to get him out on the floor, because he can do some things out there defensively, because not many others can.”
Trade to be made?
There’s little doubt the Kings could afford to be aggressive in upgrading the roster, particularly on the defensive end, ahead of the trade deadline Feb. 9. But coming up with an obvious trade idea isn’t easy. Because it would likely take the Kings parting with at least one rotation player to get a piece or two that could provide a substantial upgrade. Their depth has been a strength to this point — and their team-wide camaraderie has been one of the biggest stories of the season.
At the forefront of the conversation has to be Harrison Barnes. The 30-year-old is slated for unrestricted free agency this summer, which means the Kings could risk losing him for nothing if they decide he’s not in their long-term plans. His $18.4 million expiring salary could be useful for a team looking to create cap space this summer (which the Kings might also be interested in doing).
But trading Barnes means trading away their starting small forward and intangibly their most experienced veteran. He’s the team’s only player with championship experience. They also lack depth at wing aside from Keegan Murray, who has shown promise but remains an untested rookie. He’s been up and down, although he’s coming off winning Western Conference Rookie of the Month for December.
There’s been a lot of focus on the Kings’ need for a backup center. But perhaps there would be more value in finding a power forward who could play on the wing with Sabonis and also behind him as a small-ball five. The Kings have already tried plodding centers behind Sabonis and might be better off going smaller and trying to increase their pace. They’ve tested that recently with Trey Lyles at the five in spurts.
Options could include P.J. Washington (Charlotte), John Collins (Atlanta) or Jae Crowder (Phoenix). A name that’s regularly included in all trade discussions is Detroit wing scorer Bojan Bogdanovic, who averages 21.1 points per game while shooting 42% from distance, but he’ll turn 34 in April and might not align with the team’s long-term plans.
