Kansas Jayhawks basketball had a nearly perfect day. What it means for KU ahead

Kansas men’s basketball controlled what it could in an 83-56 demolishing of 16 seed Texas Southern in the NCAA Tournament’s first round.

The basketball bracket gods, though, were the stars of a wacky Thursday, where the Jayhawks dramatically increased their Final Four chances by watching TV and seeing others around them fall.

Let’s be specific about the ramifications of fifth-seeded Iowa’s loss to Richmond and ninth-seeded Creighton’s overtime victory against San Diego State: KU, as it stands right now, has the most coveted bracket spot of any team remaining in this year’s field.

And while it’s great to be good, a bit of luck can go a long way too.

When the Selection Committee first released its work last Sunday, KU’s path was favorable, but it wasn’t guaranteed to be completely clear.

It would’ve been a difficult road if the Jayhawks faced Texas Southern/San Diego State/Iowa/Auburn to make the Final Four. San Diego State would’ve presented some issues with its length and athleticism inside, while Iowa and Auburn had established themselves in the top 15, meaning KU would likely have been a couple-point favorite against each in future matchups.

The real benefit of KU’s draw was going to be if weird things happened. Creighton undoubtedly had a worse year than San Diego State when judging both teams by their possession-based numbers, and the same could be said when comparing Providence to Iowa and Wisconsin to Auburn.

Two-thirds of that path KU doesn’t have to worry about anymore. Creighton’s come-from-behind victory Thursday means KU will have a few extra points of cushion Saturday, entering as a nine-or-10-point favorite over the Bluejays instead of the six-or-seven-point edge it would have had against San Diego State. That’s not even considering the potential further advantage gained because Creighton’s best player, 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, is likely to miss Saturday’s contest with a knee injury.

The changes to KU’s Sweet 16 odds, meanwhile, are even more drastic. KU-Iowa would’ve been considered close to a coin-flip game, especially with that contest being played at a Chicago regional in the Hawkeyes’ backyard.

Now? If it advances past Creighton, KU would likely be favored by about eight against Providence or 12 versus Richmond if the Spiders pull another upset.

In other words, halfway through the first day of the tournament, things are already opening up better than KU could’ve ever hoped.

The numbers at FiveThirtyEight provide statistical proof. Here are the odds that KU would advance to each round before the NCAA Tournament, and those updated probabilities.

Those Elite Eight and Final Four likelihoods, in particular, made dramatic shifts. It’s also worth noting that KU’s 11% odds of winning the championship are now second-best in the field, behind only Gonzaga.

Here’s the obvious caveat: It doesn’t mean anything if KU doesn’t take care of its end of the deal while continuing to play well.

It’s starting to feel a bit like 2011 already, when a crumbled bracket resulted in a gift-wrapped course for KU to the national title. In the Elite Eight, the Jayhawks had about a 50% chance of winning it all based on probability models; they then lost to VCU as a double-digit favorite, with that result remaining as one the most prominent “what ifs” in KU coach Bill Self’s 19 seasons with the Jayhawks.

The bottom line: Things don’t always fall this way. You can’t pick your matchups or have a say in the upsets before you, which means there’s more to overcome in some seasons than others.

The Jayhawks can only play the teams that show up in front of them, and those opponents are lining up to be the weakest of any potential 2022 Final Four team.

That might be lucky, but it’s also reality.

No one fact-checks the strength of schedule for Final Four teams. You either get there, or you don’t.

And through one day, KU stands to benefit as much as any team based on something outside of its control.

The next step is taking full advantage.

This story was originally published March 17, 2022 at 10:51 PM with the headline "Kansas Jayhawks basketball had a nearly perfect day. What it means for KU ahead."

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

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Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.