US could clinch World Cup’s Group D today — and secure a Bay Area appearance
Team USA could punch its ticket to Levi’s Stadium in the knockout round of the World Cup with a win and some help Friday.
Because if the Americans beat Australia on Friday afternoon in Seattle — and Turkey either loses to or ties Paraguay at Levi’s Stadium late Friday night — the U.S. men’s national team would win Group D before playing its third and final match of the group stage, setting up a trip to Santa Clara for the Round of 32 on July 1.
A win Friday would mean Team USA gets to 6 points in the Group D standings and would hold the main tiebreaker over Australia. Under that scenario, Turkey would be the only other team in the group that could reach 6 points and still have a chance at winning a tiebreaker over the Americans. Team USA in its World Cup opener last week defeated Paraguay, 4-1, to own that tiebreaker as well.
Clinching the group as early as Friday night is possible because FIFA changed tiebreakers for this year’s World Cup, giving less weight to goal differential.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, meaning a win Friday could give USA the nod over Australia even if the Socceroos finish tied with 6 points by winning their third match against Paraguay while the U.S. loses to Turkey in their final group stage game.
If the U.S. wins, but Turkey beats Paraguay on Friday, then USMNT would need a win or tie against the Turks to win the group. It’s also worth noting a U.S. win over Australia on Friday would all but guarantee a trip the knockout stage, but winning Group D would give the Americans the best draw, as they would face a third-place finisher from Group B, E, F, I, or J.
On the other side, Australia could also clinch Friday starting with a win over USMNT, which would put all the pressure on Team USA and the third match against Turkey, next Thursday at SoFi Stadium, particularly if Turkey comes away with 3 points Friday with a win over Paraguay.
There’s also a chance the loser of the U.S.-Australia game still wins the group, but it would involve a three-way tie for first place with 6 points.
If it sounds complicated, it is.
It’s part of FIFA growing the field from 32 to 48 teams for this iteration of the World Cup, which is the biggest in the event’s history with its total of 104 matches, up from the 64-match format used from 1998 to 2022. The new format added 16 teams in four groups, with the knockout stage beginning with 32 teams rather than 16 previously.
This also means the top eight third-place teams, decided heavily by tiebreakers, will move on to the Round of 32, which is why the tiebreakers are such a significant part of the story of this World Cup.
Suffice to say, it would be an enormous benefit for the Americans to beat Australia on Friday and let the chips fall after that. A win virtually assures a trip to the knockout stage — and the top spot in the group if Paraguay can manage a win or tie against Turkey later that night.
USA winning the group would also be big for the Bay Area, which would wind up hosting one of the biggest matches in the USMNT’s history at Levi’s Stadium. The U.S. men’s team has never won the World Cup.
What if US finishes second or worse?
Should the U.S. finish second in Group D, USMNT would face the second-place finisher in Group G (made up of Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand; all four entered Friday having tied their first game) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
In the unlikely event that U.S. finishes third in Group D but advances as one of the eight best third-place finishers (this would almost certainly involve a three-way tie at 6 points in the Group D standings), they would go into the knockout round to face the winner of either Group E, I or K in Boston, New Jersey or Kansas City, respectively.
FIFA’s reworked tiebreakers
A refresher: in the group stage, wins are worth 3 points and draws are worth 1, and each team plays the other three opponents in its group once. That means teams can get a maximum of 9 points in the group stage, while there will likely be many ties. Hence, tiebreakers.
Here are the full tiebreaker rules from FIFA for teams that have the same number of points following their three group stage matches (plus a quick translation for a couple of the wordier tiebreakers).
Step 1
— Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned. (In short, head-to-head record.)
— Superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned. (In short, goal differential.)
— Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned.
Step 2
— Superior goal difference in all group matches.
— Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.
— Highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained.
Step 3
If teams remain tied after the above tiebreakers the final decider will be their most recent FIFA World Rankings. The U.S. would own this tiebreaker, as they entered the World Cup ranked No. 17 by FIFA, ahead of No. 22 Turkey, No. 27 Australia and No. 41 Paraguay.
