Prep football roundtable: Can lower seeds win titles? Which teams have a lock on a title?
Wasn’t it just summer like a week ago? Wasn’t it just about 12 to 15 days ago when it was 115 degrees?
Well, no. But the point is, time flies. The Sac-Joaquin Section football playoffs are here, and that means 80 teams spread over seven divisions set aim at reaching championship games.
Our Sacramento Bee prep coverage crew of Chris Biderman, Jim Patrick, Cameron Salerno and yours truly break down some talking points to ponder, things beyond trusting the process, embracing the culture, taking it day by day and respecting opponents.
Can lower seeds actually win championships?
JoeD: Yes and emphatically yes, though top seeds have the advantage with opening-round byes and, well, just being better. But history shows underdogs and upstarts can turn brackets upside down. In 1984, Elk Grove was third in the Delta League, then went on to win its first-ever playoff games and won the Division I championship under coach Steve DaPrato. In 2015, Del Oro was fourth in the Sierra Foothill League, inched into the playoffs and never looked back as the lowest-seeded team to win a state championship, doing so under coach Casey Taylor, now leading the charge at Oak Ridge. This year’s upstarts, based on seedings, include: No. 6 Granite Bay in D-II and No. 6 Vista del Lago in D-III.
Biderman: I’m going to cosign everything Joe said. He can, after all, pull a nugget from 19-frickin’-84,when I was just a glimmer in parents’ eyes. But I don’t know if there are many teams that fit the bill as a candidate to go on a run as a lower seed this year. The top seeds are so talented and well-coached. But these are teenagers, after all, and injuries happen. I’ve been surprised by Granite Bay’s string of losses throughout the season given the Grizzlies’ talent and pedigree. I think they’re a team that’s better than it’s record and that could show in the tournament. But I don’t know if there are many others that fit the bill.
Patrick: I think there is a bias against lower seeds. It seems like schools seeded eighth and higher are also-rans that the section is obligated to include, like a league champion from a weak conference. It’s not like it hasn’t ever happened, but it’s just such a stacked deck against low seeds that it’s hard to make a serious argument. The closest I can come this year is with the small schools, where chaos still could have a home. One kid gets hurt and everything changes in Division VI. I like fifth-seeded Bradshaw Christian a lot, but if you want a real swing, how about this: seventh-seeded Twelve Bridges. The Raging Rhinos (!!!) are well-coached and this is probably the only time they’ll play in this small of a division (it’s a growing school). If a low seed wins it all, my hypothetical money is on Twelve Bridges.
Salerno: I hate to be that guy, but it’s rare for lower seeds to win championships in high school football. Not that it doesn’t happen, that’s not my point. I’m saying the talent gap between the best-of-the-best and lower seeds is large. That’s a big reason why the section went from a 16-team playoff to only 12 teams. It makes no sense to have No. 1 Folsom beat the No. 16 seed by 60. It’s more common (if it happens) that a lower seed makes a run in a smaller division. Everyone loves an underdog, it’s just rare that it happens in these brackets. There are still examples of teams making runs as a lower seed.
Is it a no-brainer that Folsom and St. Mary’s meet for the D-I crown?
JoeD: The easy money says yes, but there’s also No. 3 seed Oak Ridge and No. 6 Elk Grove, and those teams could meet in the second round and then potentially face St. Mary’s in a semifinal. It’s doable. Monterey Trail, seeded fourth, is on Folsom’s side of the bracket and, should it meet Folsom in a semifinal, would use the same game plan it used to stun Folsom in the 2019 semis: ball control. MT had the ball for a remarkable 40 of the game’s 48 minutes to pull the upset. It’s doable, but is it likely? Eh.
Biderman: It certainly feels that way. But perhaps the most important lesson I’ve learned in my (redacted) years covering football, it’s to never say never. Anything can happen.
Patrick: It’s a no-brainer. They teach you in journalism school how to argue both sides. I can’t find an argument against Folsom. When you’re left with “things happen,” it’s a no-brainer.
Salerno: Folsom and St. Mary’s are by far the two best teams in the section. They’re on a collision course to play each other for the section final. I like Folsom in that game, if it happens.
What’s the deepest/toughest field?
JoeD: I’ll say D-II with top-seeded Manteca and perhaps the top player in Northern California in Florida State-bound RB/LB Blake Nichelson leading the pack. No. 2 Del Oro of the rugged Sierra Foothill League has terrific line play and tradition. No. 4 Rocklin is much like Del Oro, and same with No. 6 Granite Bay, which could face 10-0 Downey of Modesto in the Round II, and No. 5 Jesuit, which could face Rocklin in Round II. Five different teams could win this and it wouldn’t be a stunner.
Biderman: Maybe my NFL elitism is coming out here but I’m going to say D-I. Sure, it’s heavy at the top, but there are quality teams throughout. Monterey Trail beating Folsom would be an upset, but not an entirely surprising one. St. Mary’s is loaded with a ton of big wins on its schedule, which makes a potential matchup against Folsom one of the best in the country this season, full stop. Oak Ridge won a big game against Del Oro and could beat anyone. Or maybe I’m just a sucker for the best of the best.
Patrick: I’m writing my response second, so I’ll be surprised if Biderman and Salerno don’t also pick Division III. Also, why does Biderman always do his writing last? Procrastination is a powerful drug. Here’s why it’s Division III: The No. 5 seed, Merced, lost 24-21 to No. 2 seed Patterson. There’s an argument that any of the top five teams could get hot and go on a run. No. 4 Christian Brothers? Young, super-talented. No. 3 Grant? Ascendant. Second-seeded Patterson hasn’t played a close game in a month; the only loss was to Manteca of Division II. Oh, and Placer is unbeaten and looks like a powerhouse. It’s going to be wild.
Salerno: Jim knows me too well. Division lll is a really fun bracket. Vista del Lago as the No. 6 seed can make a run. D-ll is also really fun with Manteca, Del Oro, Rocklin, Granite Bay and more. Division l should be chalk with Folsom and St. Mary’s meeting for the section final.
Who takes the D-IV field?
JoeD: The easy answer is Vanden, the top seed, the defending champion with 14 starters back, but there’s also No. 2 Casa Roble with a nine-game winning streak and only a two-point opening loss to Placer. Can Capital Christian make a run? What about the Lincoln Zebras (anytime I can mention that mascot, I will)? I’ll go with the Casa Roble Nicknames, er, Rams, who have dudes who go by “Cyborg” and “Tarzan” though West Park may have a say in all of this.
Biderman: Listen, Jim, some of my best work comes from procrastinating. But it’s hard for me to pick against Vanden. I saw them stick it to Wood on their home field on senior night in impressive fashion. But don’t sleep on West Park, the literal new kids on the block. They’re well-coached and have nothing to lose, plus dual-threat quarterback Develle Barksdale can do things athletically defenses can’t prepare for.
Patrick: We should explain Joe’s joke about the Casa Roble “Nicknames.” Their coach is savvy enough to know Joe loves when kids have nicknames, so he lets us know when he’s got a good one. Anywho, I’m rooting for No. 12 Natomas to win it all but picking Vanden.
Salerno: If any team can beat Vanden, It’s Casa Roble. They’re not your typical Division lV team. They have playmakers and a great offensive line. That’s a recipe to go far in the playoffs.
What are some smaller schools to watch?
JoeD: In Division V, I’ve seen Pioneer, Center, Liberty Ranch and Rosemont play and have seen gobs of Sutter film. Gobs meaning an ample amount. Tremendous teams on a smaller stage, that’s all. Sutter and Liberty Ranch are 10-0. I see a showdown between Sutter and the Ranch for the title.
Biderman: Sutter, new to the section, knows how to win titles. And I think they kept some tricks in their back pocket during the regular season. Keep an eye on Joshua Gregor. He was fourth on the team in carries, but stood out as one of the most talented ball-carriers I saw all year. He looks like a college defensive end and is impossible to tackle. Keeping his carry numbers low during the regular season felt deliberate. Sutter, after all, doesn’t have any two-way players on purpose. They’re all about keeping players fresh.
Patrick: Woodland Christian played for a Division VII title last year. The Cardinals’ only loss is to much-larger Pioneer, 26-14. I don’t understand why that puts them at a No. 3 seed, when the other top seeds have two losses, but here we are. Plus the Cardinals have the Hinkle brothers, which is just fun to say. Say it with me: Hinkle brothers.
Salerno: Twelve Bridges and West Park aren’t technically small schools but both of them can make a run. Jim is right. Woodland Christian is also a team that can make a run.
Who’s your Player of the Year for the regular season?
JoeD: The playoffs will be the deciding factor, certainly, but at this moment: I’ll go with Scott Nixon of Sheldon, who plays receiver, tight end, running back, punter, safety, linebacker and general stopper. Tremendous.
Biderman: I don’t know if enough people know about Kingston Lopa from Grant. He’s 6-foot-5, runs like a gazelle, and crushes people at safety. When Grant needs a big play, they often just send him on a go route, and he’s one of the best defensive players in the section to boot. If the Pacers make a run, which they should, Lopa (and his brother, Dubee), will be key factors. Look for Kingston to play at a college program you’ve heard of in two years.
Patrick: Chris Biderman. He’s got a cannon for an arm, files by deadline and has a nose for good stories. Secondary to that, I like Joe’s Nixon pick a ton, but I’m going with Liberty Ranch’s Arthur Draeger, once again showing my Galt bias. Draeger has 31 rushing TDs but *also* leads the team in tackles, with 10.7 per game. He has three sacks and two interceptions. He probably does laundry for the team and helps everyone with their homework, too.
Salerno: Aruthur Draeger is my pick. He’s been incredible this season. Austin Mack is also someone that can win the award if Folsom makes a deep run like they should.
This story was originally published November 3, 2022 at 5:00 AM.