Kings mailbag: Marvin Bagley III is finally coming back, but should he start or not?
The losses are adding up. The injuries are taking a toll. The Kings need help. They’re about to get one of their best young players back, but nobody knows what they’re going to do with him.
Should Marvin Bagley III start or come off the bench? What do you do with Richaun Holmes and Nemanja Bjelica? The Kings (8-12) have lost four of their last five going into Friday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs (8-14), so people have questions.
Every win and every loss will count in this year’s Western Conference playoff race. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are currently projected to earn the seventh and eighth seeds with about 40 wins, so it isn’t over, but time is of the essence so let’s get into this week’s Kings mailbag.
@Edgar_usmc asks: “When is Marvin Bagley coming back?”
Thank you for your service, sir. Bagley will be back very soon. He has missed 19 games since breaking his right thumb in the season opener, but he was cleared for full-contact basketball activities following his six-week evaluation Thursday. He flew out to join the team in San Antonio and could be activated any day now.
@sacto_kings55 asks: “Is this the stretch we’ll finally see Bagley?”
Yes. Bagley was listed as doubtful on the injury report the Kings submitted to the NBA on Thursday for Friday’s game, but he is considered day-to-day and will return as soon as coach Luke Walton believes he is ready.
If Bagley doesn’t play against the Spurs on Friday, the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday or the Houston Rockets on Monday, he will almost certainly return when the Kings play the Oklahoma City Thunder at home on Wednesday. I’m guessing he plays Monday, if not sooner.
The question is: How will Walton use Bagley when he returns? This is complicated because Walton is starting Holmes over Dedmon now, replacing the floor-stretching center the Kings signed to play alongside Bagley with a rim-protecting center who has excelled in a starting role. Over the past three games, Holmes has averaged 20.3 points and 9.7 rebounds while shooting 74.3 percent over the past three games.
The Kings will lose critical floor spacing if they start Bagley with Holmes, neither of which is a proven perimeter shooter, but they might sacrifice even more if Holmes goes to the bench and Bagley starts with Bjelica. Bagley will be a good 3-point shooter one day, but that trait isn’t likely to emerge right now following a long injury absence. Walton hasn’t revealed his intentions, but earlier this week he hinted he had made up his mind when asked about Bagley’s eventual return.
“I spend time planning for when that happens,” Walton said. “… Later in the week, if we get him back, we’ll put that plan into place, but we’re not going to start overthinking that now.”
@Reddnexican asks: “How will Luke handle Bagley when he comes back forcing shots and getting beat on defense while Holmes takes a backseat?”
Bagley, the No. 2 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, is still developing. He will force shots because, occasionally, he is overly eager and impatient. He will get beat on defense because right now he lacks experience and awareness. And then he’ll get better, probably turning into a monster who averages 20 points and 10 rebounds while scoring easily inside, hitting from outside and holding his own at the defensive end.
How quickly that happens is up to Bagley. In the meantime, I suspect Walton will treat him like every other player on the team. When Dedmon wasn’t performing, he started Holmes. When Fox and Buddy Hield weren’t playing well, he benched them in the fourth quarter. There’s no reason to think he will treat Bagley differently.
This story was originally published December 6, 2019 at 3:50 AM.
