It’s safe to say the Kings missed a generational talent by not taking Luka Doncic

It takes a truly magnificent mistake to qualify as one of the worst blunders in Sacramento Kings history.

After all, this is the franchise that took Thomas Robinson over Damian Lillard; Ben McLemore over C.J. McCollum; Jimmer Fredette over Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard, and spent the better part of the last decade tracking owed draft picks and pick swaps to the Chicago Bulls, Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics. And yet when the Dallas Mavericks visit the Golden 1 Center on Wednesday, Kings fans will be reminded again of one of the biggest blunders in franchise history — passing on Luka Doncic with the second pick in the 2018 NBA Draft.

Lillard, McCollum, Thompson and Leonard are all great players who have racked up accolades, NBA championships and MVP awards. And yet none of them were as good in their second season as Doncic already is. After a rookie season in which Luka averaged 21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6 assists (20-5-5 was supposed to make Tyreke Evans the next Jordan, so I suppose 21-7-6 is solid), Luka has taken a huge leap forward in his second year. He’s averaging over 29 points, nearly 10 rebounds and 9 assists per game while leading the Dallas Mavericks comfortably into the playoff picture. He’s succeeding in all the ways a top draft pick is supposed to succeed.

These discussions often end up lambasting Marvin Bagley, the player the Kings took instead of Luka. It isn’t Bagley’s fault that the Kings misjudged Luka’s potential, but his career will unfortunately continue to be evaluated in the shadow of Doncic and the decision the Kings made. Bagley had a decent enough rookie season, earning All-Rookie First Team honors and averaging 14.9 points and 7.6 rebounds, but he’s struggled with injuries in his sophomore year and has appeared in just 10 games. In those games he’s sometimes had trouble finding his groove but has shown flashes of the exciting player Kings fans saw last season.

It’s generally unwise to evaluate draft picks after just a year and a half, especially considering how much time Bagley has missed this year. However, the level of catchup necessary for Bagley to be considered a better pick than Luka is enormous, and unfair to expect from him. Luka is on the short list of candidates to win MVP this season. Bagley could have a wonderful NBA career and be a player Kings fans love and still may never sniff an MVP discussion. It’s rare air that Luka occupies.

This isn’t just a matter of hindsight, either. Bagley was considered one of the top prospects in a very strong draft class, but the generally consensus from draft experts and fans was that it was a two-player draft at the top, with Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic standing apart. The Phoenix Suns took Ayton, and like Bagley, Ayton hasn’t blown the doors off the league. He’s struggled to live up to his draft position. The Atlanta Hawks had the third pick and traded down to select Trae Young. Young has been excellent but hasn’t been able to elevate the Hawks out of the NBA cellar, but the Hawks acquired an extra first round pick in the deal. The Suns took one of the two top prospects, got it wrong, and their GM was replaced not long after. The Hawks traded down and got an extra asset while still drafting the player they liked. The Kings stood pat, got no extra assets, and went against conventional wisdom. The Kings took who they thought was the best player.

It will take a few years to know for certain, but for now the evidence suggests the Kings got it wrong.

Greg has been covering the Kings for 10 years. You can follow him on Twitter at @gwiss

This story was originally published January 14, 2020 at 10:20 AM.