Mailbag: Wait, can the Kings still make the playoffs? Can they keep Harry Giles III?
Kings fans are getting what they’ve wanted from this team all season — heart, hustle and some hot shooting. They’re even getting some Harry Giles III.
There’s another thing, too. Remember when the Kings were one of the fastest teams in the league last season? They’ve slowed down considerably for a variety of reasons under new coach Luke Walton, but they’ve been saying they want to go faster for months. Well, after revving up slowly in recent weeks, the Kings have come flying out of the All-Star break, leading the NBA in pace over the past two games. This is a small sample size, but the Kings are seventh in pace over their past five games, so there is a trend.
The Kings (22-33) are on a bit of a roll as they head to San Francisco to play the Golden State Warriors (12-45) on Tuesday night at Chase Center. They have won eight of their past 12 games, including back-to-back wins over the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers last week in their first two games after the All-Star break.
The Kings are 13th in the NBA in net rating since Jan. 24. They’ve played like a playoff team over the past month, but aren’t they already out of the playoff race? Do they still have a chance to end their 13-year playoff drought? Will Richaun Holmes return from his shoulder injury? Will the Kings bring Giles back next season? Are De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield bad defenders?
You have questions and we have answers. Let’s get into this week’s mailbag.
@_joebrazil asks: How high do you think the odds are of us turning this season around? Does the rest of our schedule seem easy, hard or in between?
The schedule isn’t the problem. It’s the win total.
The Kings are going to have trouble getting to 41 wins, the number that will be needed to earn the eighth seed in the Western Conference according to current projections from FiveThirtyEight.com. The site currently gives the Kings a 4 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, up from 2 percent before their win over the Clippers.
According to Tankathon.com, the Kings’ remaining strength of schedule ranks 23rd in the NBA, so they have one of the easier remaining schedules in the league. Three of the teams they’re chasing for the eighth seed have easier schedules. The San Antonio Spurs are 25th, the Portland Trail Blazers are 26th and the New Orleans Pelicans are 29th. The Memphis Grizzlies, the team they’re all chasing, have the most difficult remaining schedule, and now Jaren Jackson Jr. is expected to miss at least two weeks with a knee injury.
The Pelicans are projected to finish eighth at 41-41 followed by the Blazers at 39-43, the Grizzlies at 37-45 and the Kings at 36-46. In order to match the Pelicans with 41 wins, the Kings would have to go 18-8 in their final 26 games. That is highly unlikely, but they have will play 15 games against teams currently under .500, including six against the Pelicans (2), Spurs (2), Grizzlies (1) and Blazers (1).
The Kings have virtually no margin for error and will probably come up short, but don’t be surprised if they make it interesting.
@Pathfin48237177 asks: What are your thoughts on Fox and Hield’s defensive rating stats? Why are they so bad? Does their offense make up for it?
This is an interesting question for the Kings going forward and I wouldn’t stop with Fox and Hield. I would include Marvin Bagley III in the discussion as well.
We can illustrate your assertion using ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus. This statistic measures a player’s estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions.
Fox is 76th among point guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus with a score of minus-2.02. Hield is 116th among shooting guards. Bagley is 85th among forwards. Can you build a winning basketball team — predicated on Walton’s stubborn insistence on defense — when three of the primary players you’re building around appear to be defensive liabilities?
Fox is regarded as a player with elite defensive potential. His ability to lock down an opposing point guard in key moments is clear to the eye even if it doesn’t show up on a stat sheet over 100 possessions. Bagley is blessed with tremendous quickness, athleticism and leaping ability, so there is potential for him to develop as a defender if he stays healthy and improves his defensive awareness. Also, both players are very young, so they could gain strength and physicality as their bodies fill out.
Walton has personally challenged Hield to become a good defender, too, but just being adequate might be good enough.
To answer the other part of your question, yes, Fox and Hield usually make up for any defensive deficiencies with their offensive abilities. Fox is 13th among point guards in Offensive Plus-Minus at 2.51, giving him a Real Plus-Minus of plus-0.49. Hield is 13th among shooting guards with an Offensive Plus-Minus of 2.26. He has a Real Plus-Minus of plus-0.61.
Bagley is 47th among power forwards with an Offensive Plus-Minus of minus-0.31. He has a Real Plus-Minus of minus-2.23, which ranks 83rd among power forwards. There is cause for concern in those numbers, but Bagley is 20 years old and has only played 75 games over two seasons. The Kings need to get him on the floor and keep him there before we’ll know who he is and what he can become.
@LuckyDP18 asks: How can we keep Harry Giles after not picking up his option? There is only a maximum amount we can offer him on a one-year deal, right?
The Kings chose not to pick up Giles’ fourth-year option for $3.97 million, so he will become an unrestricted free agent this summer. Under the rules of the collective bargaining agreement, the Kings cannot exceed that amount in the first year of a new deal, but they can offer additional years with annual raises of 8 percent.
The Kings could offer Giles about $8.3 million over two years, $12.9 million over three years or $17.9 million over four years. If the market sets a higher price for Giles, other teams will be able to offer more money. The Kings cannot.
Only six teams are projected to have cap space this summer, so we won’t see the spending and player movement we witnessed in the summer of 2019, but lots of teams can scrape together more than $4 million using mid-level exceptions.
@JbTochterman asks: Will Harry take less money and stay with the Kings? What incentives can be offered to encourage him to stay with the Kings?
The incentive for Giles to stay is his history in Sacramento. Even in recent discussions, he has pointed to the commitment the organization made to his recovery, development and growth, and a vision of success in Sacramento that he shares with his teammates and their fans.
I can’t tell you if Giles would accept less money to stay in Sacramento. I can tell you from recent conversations he still has a deep love for the city and the fans who have embraced him, and he says his relationship with the Kings organization has not become strained due to these contractual issues.
@JT_PaperStacks asks: Will De’Aaron Fox ever go 10/10 at the free-throw line?
That’s a badge Fox hasn’t earned yet, but, yeah, I think he will someday. He’s already come very close despite being a 71.1-percent free-throw shooter over his first three seasons.
In January, he made 8 of 8 against the Phoenix Suns and the Memphis Grizzlies. Last season, he made 9 of 10 against the Portland Trail Blazers, 10 of 11 against the Atlanta Hawks and 11 of 12 against the Dallas Mavericks.
Eventually, he’ll have a night when he’s perfect from the line on 10 or more attempts. It’s just a matter of time.
@LuckyLouChez asks: When will Richaun Holmes return, what will his role be and will he be on a minutes restriction?
We still don’t know when Holmes will be back from the shoulder injury that has caused him to miss the past 19 games.
The Kings announced Feb. 11 that Holmes received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat a torn right labrum. The team said he would be reevaluated in two to three weeks. Tuesday will mark the two-week mark. Holmes told The Bee last week he is improving and “can’t wait” to “get back out there.”
“It definitely feels better,” Holmes said. “You’ve just got to take it day-by-day and make sure I get my strength and everything back.”
As for Holmes’ role when he returns, Walton will probably do what he did when Fox and Bagley came back from injuries earlier this season. Holmes will likely come off the bench for a few games while the coaching staff assesses his fitness and fit in a rotation that has changed considerably since he got hurt.
@hepp056 asks: How do you see them working Parker into the lineup? No minutes versus the Clippers; was it a matchup issue or something else?
Forward Jabari Parker did not play against the Clippers on Saturday after making his Kings debut against the Grizzlies on Thursday. I don’t believe Walton was asked about this after the game. I meant to inquire but didn’t get around to it.
The Kings are trying to work two rotational bigs into the mix after acquiring Parker and center Alex Len from the Hawks at the trade deadline. Finding minutes for both of them in the same game might have disrupted some of the chemistry and continuity the team has finally found in recent weeks.
Parker played against the Grizzlies, posting four points on 1-of-6 shooting with four rebounds and two assists in 15 minutes. Len played against the Clippers, finishing with three points on 1-of-3 shooting with eight rebounds, one steal and one blocked shot in 16 minutes. Each outing was an opportunity for coaches to see how each player might fit.
Len showed he can provide a needed interior presence against bigger, more physical teams. Parker looked rusty in just his second game since Dec. 23, but he is an intriguing addition to a second unit that already features Cory Joseph, Buddy Hield and Kent Bazemore.
Parker, 24, has averaged 15.0 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists over a six-year career that has been hindered by injuries. He had some big games for the Hawks earlier this season, including a 33-point, 14-rebound performance against the Milwaukee Bucks in November.
This story was originally published February 25, 2020 at 4:00 AM.
