The contenders: Full breakdown of Kings’ surprising place in NBA playoff race
The Kings have awoken from what was shaping up as a nightmarish season to find themselves in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.
With 22 games remaining, the Kings are tied with the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs for ninth in the Western Conference. They are three games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the eighth seed in the West, a half-game ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers and 2½ games ahead of the Phoenix Suns.
The Kings are in a remarkable place considering they went 15-29 to start the season while managing the prolonged injury absences of De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Marvin Bagley III. The team has won 11 of its last 16 games and five of six since the All-Star break.
A number of factors have played a role in the team’s turnaround. Many point to coach Luke Walton’s decision to move Bogdanovic into the starting lineup and sharpshooter Buddy Hield to the bench, but there’s more to it than that. Bagley (foot) and center Richaun Holmes (shoulder) have been hurt, but otherwise the Kings have been fairly healthy, allowing the team to establish a consistent rotation and some cohesiveness. The acquisitions of Kent Bazemore and Alex Len in separate moves before the trade deadline have also helped considerably, adding intensity and toughness.
Walton and some of his players have been reluctant to declare the Kings a playoff contender, but others are beginning to believe. As reporters gathered around Bogdanovic following Sunday’s 106-100 victory over the Detroit Pistons, Bogdanovic peered through the crowd at a television across the room, asking for the halftime score of the Pelicans’ game against the Los Angeles Lakers.
“We just really want to make the playoffs,” Bogdanovic said. “We are really motivated. That’s what drives us and that’s what really motivates us every single day. We’re just trying to make it.”
The Kings have the NBA’s longest active postseason drought after 13 consecutive losing seasons, but that could end if this run continues. The top seven seeds in the Western Conference appear to be spoken for, but the eighth seed is up for grabs. Here’s a look at the five teams vying for that spot in the race for eighth:
Memphis Grizzlies (29-31)
The Grizzlies have been one of the feel-good stories of the season with rookie sensation Ja Morant and second-year forward Jaren Jackson Jr. leading their surprising playoff push. They were 28-26 after winning eight of 10 going into the All-Star break, but their four-game lead over the then-ninth-place Blazers already felt tenuous.
The Grizzlies have the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, according to the latest data from Tankathon.com. Making matters worse, Jackson (knee) and rookie standout Brandon Clarke (quadriceps) are out for at least two weeks due to injuries.
Memphis earned a big win over the Lakers on Saturday to snap a five-game skid that included losses to the Kings (twice), Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets. The Grizzlies’ schedule will seemingly lighten up over the next nine days, but then it gets more difficult again.
Memphis will play the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, followed by games against the Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Hawks and Orlando Magic. That stretch will be followed by games against the Blazers, Utah Jazz, Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Milwaukee Bucks, Pelicans (2), Celtics and Raptors (2).
FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Grizzlies an 8-percent chance of surviving the gauntlet to make the playoffs.
New Orleans Pelicans (26-34)
The Pelicans are seemingly in the best position to overtake the Grizzlies behind rookie phenom Zion Williamson, who has averaged 24.1 points and 6.8 rebounds in 15 games since making his NBA debut after missing 45 games with a knee injury.
One potential problem emerged Sunday when the Pelicans announced guard J.J. Redick will miss at least two weeks with a hamstring injury. Redick is the team’s fourth-leading scorer at 14.9 points per game, but more importantly he is shooting 45.2 percent from 3-point range, providing valuable floor spacing for teammates such as Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
The Pelicans have the easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, but the next couple of weeks could be difficult without Redick. They have a couple of very winnable games during that stretch against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they will also face the Mavericks, Miami Heat, Kings, Jazz and Clippers. That stretch will be followed by games against the Hawks, Spurs, Grizzlies (twice) and Kings.
FiveThirtyEight’s projections give the Pelicans a 67-percent chance of making the playoffs.
Sacramento Kings (26-34)
The Kings beat the Chicago Bulls on Jan. 24 to snap a six-game losing streak. Since then, they have posted the seventh-best record in the NBA behind only the Bucks, Raptors, Celtics, Rockets, Thunder and Lakers.
This Kings have played like a playoff team for nearly six weeks with big wins over the Clippers (twice), Heat, Spurs and Grizzlies (twice). They’ve done it all without Holmes, who is expected to return to practice this week after missing the past 23 games with a torn labrum, and Bagley, whose return is uncertain.
The Kings have been relatively healthy in recent weeks aside from the absences of Bagley and Holmes. Fox (lower abdominal tightness) and backup point guard Cory Joseph (bruised heel) were listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Pistons, but both played through their injuries. Fox is also nursing ankle and shoulder pains.
The Kings have the 10th-easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon’s latest calculations. They have home games against the Washington Wizards (22-37) on Tuesday and the Philadelphia 76ers (37-24) on Thursday.
The Wizards can’t be taken lightly. They have won two of their last three behind Bradley Beale, who has averaged 42.8 points over the past five games. The 76ers are expected to be without All-Stars Ben Simmons (back) and Joel Embiid (shoulder).
A big road game against the Blazers awaits the Kings on Saturday. Sacramento also has two critical games against the Pelicans coming up March 11 in Sacramento and March 22 in New Orleans.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Kings a 12-percent chance of reaching the playoffs, up from 2 percent just 10 days ago.
San Antonio Spurs (25-33)
San Antonio’s NBA-record streak of 22 consecutive playoff appearances could finally come to an end. Coach Gregg Popovich and the Spurs aren’t out of it yet, but their recent play hasn’t inspired confidence. The Spurs have lost seven of their last 10 games and 10 of their last 15, although they may still have time to turn it around with the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.
Jakob Poeltl (knee) is out and LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder) is doubtful for Monday’s game against the Indiana Pacers. The Spurs will then play road games against the Charlotte Hornets, Nets and Cleveland Cavaliers before coming home to face the Mavericks, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Grizzlies. They also have remaining games against the Pelicans (three games), Jazz (two), Kings (two), Rockets (two), 76ers and Pacers, as well as another game against the Nuggets.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Spurs a 5-percent chance of reaching the playoffs.
Portland Trail Blazers (26-35)
The Blazers have lost six of their last seven games and star point guard Damian Lillard (groin) will miss his sixth in a row when they visit the Magic on Monday. Lillard was reportedly planning to travel with the team on its current road trip, but those plans were scrapped so he could remain in Portland to continue his rehabilitation. The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Monday that Lillard now hopes to return Wednesday against the Wizards.
The Blazers were already missing Jusuf Nurkic, who has been out all season with a broken leg, and Zach Collins, who dislocated his shoulder in October. Collins is hoping to be back sometime in March, but there is no timetable for Nurkic’s return.
The Blazers have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon. They will be home against the Wizards on Wednesday and at Phoenix on Friday before returning to Portland for a critical six-game homestand against the Kings, Suns, Grizzlies, Rockets, Timberwolves and Mavericks.
The Blazers have a 9-percent chance of reaching the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.
This story was originally published March 2, 2020 at 12:23 PM.
