NBA Draft Preview: Is Aaron Nesmith the next great shooter? Will the Kings take him?
In our last NBA draft preview, we profiled Devin Vassell, a picturesque fit for the Sacramento Kings. In a perfect world we could stop the search right there. We found him. Now we can rest easy.
Unfortunately, things never quite go to plan unless you’re picking first in the draft. There a million variables and by the time Sacramento makes its pick, any number of surprises could pop up.
It’s time to examine some backup plans, starting with Vanderbilt sophomore Aaron Nesmith. The 20-year-old sharpshooter put up staggering numbers over his first 14 games of the season, but had his season cut short due to injury.
Nesmith has drawn early comparisons to Sacramento’s Buddy Hield. Klay Thompson’s name has been thrown around as well. One thing is clear – if you’re looking for the next great shooter, your search starts here.
STRENGTHS
Nesmith is the best pure shooter in his class. The range, the form, the versatility – it’s all there. He shot an absurd 52.2 percent from 3-point range this season. Let that sink in for a second. Obviously, he can’t replicate that number in the NBA, but he can still be elite nonetheless.
Nesmith is a constant blur of energy on offense, running around picks and spacing into the corners. He has so much gravity as a shooter that he constantly pulls defenders along with him. This opens up a lot of room for his teammates to work. His excellent off-ball movement will help any team that drafts him to have a fluid, motion-heavy scheme.
A common issue with pure shooters is size. Nesmith defies that mold with a 6-foot-6 frame and 6-foot-10 wingspan. Like Vassell, he has the length to play small forward, but his weight and strength are more in line with expectations of the position. While Vassell is the better overall prospect, Nesmith has a good 20-pound advantage.
Nesmith definitely doesn’t have the defensive upside of Vassell, but he’s no slouch either. His size helps a lot in this department and he has a nose for the ball. He put up nearly identical steals and blocks numbers as Vassell, but is far more likely to fall asleep on defense and make questionable decisions. Overall, he should be a solid defender in a few years.
WEAKNESSES
The biggest knock on Nesmith is the one-dimensional nature of his game. He is an elite shooter, but that’s the only guaranteed strength he brings to the table. The off-ball movement, the size, and the defense are nice, but they aren’t usually enough for a lottery pick.
There’s a frightening reality about Nesmith’s shooting numbers as well. While his form looks great and the numbers are mind blowing, they come from a tiny sample size. Nesmith played only 14 games for Vanderbilt this year, which means his draft stock is based almost entirely on the strength of 60 made 3-pointers.
The reason behind his shortened season is another concern. Nesmith suffered a stress fracture in his foot that required surgery. The chance of an injury like Nesmith’s to reoccur is hard to predict. Lower body injuries can be a bad sign for longevity and durability, but that’s not always the case. Nesmith’s health is worth monitoring going forward.
There is one more red flag that can’t go unmentioned. Nesmith had nearly twice as many turnovers as he had assists this season. He is a high volume shooter that really struggled to move the ball. Keeping him running off screens until it’s time for him to score, but don’t expect him to make the quick or smart pass.
FIT WITH THE KINGS
It’s impossible to deny that the Kings need help at the small forward position. It’s also impossible to deny that Nesmith can fit that role. His physical profile and skill set would be welcome in Sacramento.
De’Aaron Fox is Sacramento’s franchise player and Marvin Bagley III is still the presumptive second building block. Neither of them has proven they can be a reliable outside shooter. There is still hope on that front, especially with Fox, but hope isn’t enough. Until the shots start falling, the Kings have to surround their core pieces with long-range weapons.
Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes and Nemanja Bjelica are a great start on that front. Let’s not stop there. If Sacramento’s first-round pick isn’t a strong shooter, more and more fit problems will develop and the roster could eventually fail.
Kings fans should be happy if their team walks out of the lottery with a combination of size and shooting. Nesmith definitely checks those boxes. Despite a few areas of concern, he would be a very solid draft pick for Sacramento.