NBA playoff bubble: Why Grizzlies, Blazers have advantage over Kings, Pelicans
Some key details have emerged since NBA players and owners voted to resume the 2019-20 season later this summer at Walt Disney World Resort in Florida, none particularly favorable for the Kings.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers appear to have some built-in advantages as the NBA builds its bubble in Lake Buena Vista, 20 miles outside of Orlando. Team-by-team schedules have yet to be revealed, but it seems clear the Kings will have to traverse a narrow path to the postseason.
Memphis clearly benefited from the NBA’s decision to play only eight seeding games — an abbreviated end to the regular season — to set the postseason field. The Grizzlies had a 3 ½-game lead over the Kings, Blazers and New Orleans Pelicans when play was suspended March 11 due to the coronavirus pandemic. With 17 games to play and the most difficult remaining schedule, the Grizzlies only had a 15-percent chance of holding onto the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, according to FiveThirtyEight. Losing that lead over eight games is unlikely.
Time will also be on the side of the Blazers, who are reportedly being gifted what amounts to a one-game advantage over the Kings and Pelicans by virtue of a one one-hundreth of a percentage point lead in the conference standings. At 29-37, the Blazers have a .439 winning percentage. The Kings and Pelicans are 28-36, having played two fewer games than the Blazers, giving them a winning percentage of .438.
That single point looms large after ESPN reported winning percentages will be used to determine standings following seeding games. The Kings and Pelicans will have to win more games than the Blazers to pass them. If they post identical records at Disney World, the Blazers will get the nod based on percentage points.
None of this bodes well for the Kings, who are mired in the NBA’s longest active playoff drought after 13 consecutive losing seasons. If the Kings can outpace the Blazers and Pelicans, and if they stay within four games of the Grizzlies, their playoff hopes will hinge on a play-in scenario, and that would favor the Grizzlies as well.
The Kings would have to beat the Grizzlies twice to secure the No. 8 seed. The Grizzlies would only have to beat the Kings once.
Sacramento beat Memphis twice in eight days a short time before the NBA suspended its season when Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19. The Kings won three out of four in the season series against the Grizzlies.
Three months ago, the Kings were surging and it looked like they might pass the Grizzlies in the West without having to play them again. Now, it seems, the Grizzlies probably can’t be caught and the Kings would have to beat them twice on consecutive days in the play-in games to reach the playoffs, if they get that chance.
Injury updates
The Grizzlies should be much healthier than they were when the season was suspended. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke were hurt at the time as Memphis entered the most difficult portion of its schedule.
The Blazers will be healthier, too. Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins are both expected to be available. Collins appeared in three games this season before suffering a shoulder injury that required surgery. Nurkic, who averaged 15.6 points and 10.4 rebounds in 2018-19, hasn’t played since breaking his leg in March 2019.
The Kings could benefit from the return of Marvin Bagley III, the No. 2 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. Bagley has appeared in only 13 games this season due to thumb and foot injuries.
Kings coach Luke Walton said Bagley was “doing great” and “feeling much better” during a conference call in April, before the team began to reopen its facilities under COVID-19 protocols. Walton said any decisions about Bagley’s return to game action would have to wait until the team reconvenes for formal training.
Key dates
The NBA is approaching some key dates in the coming days and weeks.
International players are due to return to home markets Monday. All players are required to report by June 21. Coronavirus testing is scheduled to begin June 22 followed by the start of training camp June 30.
Teams will travel to Orlando July 7 and will continue to train in the bubble. The NBA hopes to resume play July 31. Some other key dates have been reported as well.
Shams Charania of The Athletic reported Monday the league has also set tentative dates for postseason play. Play-in games will be held Aug. 16-17. The opening round of the playoffs will begin Aug. 18. The NBA Finals will begin Sept. 30 and end by Oct. 12.
The league is reportedly planning to hold the 2020 NBA Draft on Oct. 15 and will start free agency Oct. 18, though this is all subject to change.
