Path to the playoffs: What are the key matchups for the Sacramento Kings in Orlando?
Friday night the NBA announced the schedule for the upcoming return to play at Walt Disney World that kicks off July 30.
Schedule makers have been kind to the Sacramento Kings. Based on opponent win percentage, the Kings have the eighth-easiest schedule of the 22 teams in the bubble.
Five of Sacramento’s eight games will come against teams with losing records. Only one of the Kings’ eight games will come against a top-five team in either conference. At first glance, it seems the Kings have a decent chance to prove themselves worthy of the postseason.
But it’s not that simple. Certain playoff teams could treat the return-to-play as a preseason of sorts, depending on how secure they are with their seeding. It’s possible that facing teams who are fighting for their lives could be a disadvantage.
As it stands, the Memphis Grizzlies are 32-33, good for eighth place in the Western Conference. The Kings are tied with the Portland Trail Blazers and the New Orleans Pelicans for ninth in the West, 3.5 games behind Memphis. Both the Trail Blazers and the Pelicans hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Kings.
The team that finishes ninth will enter a miniseries against the team in eighth, as long as they are within four games. In that scenario, the No. 9 seed would have to win two games in a row to make it into the round of 16. If the No. 8 seed wins either game, the play-in ends and they enter the playoffs.
So how does Sacramento’s schedule really look? What are the must-win matchups? Will there be any easy wins? What record will the Kings need to make the playoffs?
Let’s break it down, game by game.
JUST WARMING UP
Sacramento’s first matchup comes against the easiest opponent. The Kings will resume their season July 31 against San Antonio Spurs, who are currently half a game behind the Kings in the standings.
The Spurs will be without one of their best players in LaMarcus Aldridge, who underwent season-ending shoulder surgery April 24. Aldridge was San Antonio’s second-leading scorer this season and led the team in rebounds and blocks. If there is an easy win on the schedule, this is it.
The Orlando Magic are up next. They boast a record just a touch better than Sacramento’s. The Magic will also have a home advantage of sorts, but that may not be a factor without fans in the crowd. This game will be tougher but still winnable.
If the Kings are going to make the playoffs, they need to start with a quick pair of wins against two lower-level teams. If they go 2-0 out of the gate, they are in the driver’s seat. Luckily, the early part of their schedule makes that possible.
NOW IT GETS TRICKY
The middle of Sacramento’s schedule gets a lot tougher. The Dallas Mavericks, while only seventh in the Western Conference, have won 12 more games than the Kings this season. Dallas can avoid a first-round playoff matchup with the L.A. Clippers by moving up in the standings, so the Mavericks will definitely be playing to win when they face Sacramento.
Next up are the New Orleans Pelicans, who many are picking to make the playoff play-in game. It makes sense when you realize New Orleans will face the easiest schedule of all 22 teams. The Pelicans will meet the Kings after two days of rest, a luxury the Kings will not experience at any point in Orlando.
The Kings then face the Brooklyn Nets the next day. All teams in the bubble will play one back-to-back set. Hopefully that won’t be a huge issue, as there is no travel in between games. Teams should be well rested after a three-month hiatus, but the lack of a break here makes this matchup tricky, despite the Nets are missing their two best players in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
The Houston Rockets pose the most difficult matchup on the schedule. Like the Pelicans matchup a few days earlier, the Rockets will be coming off multiple days of rest. This is only the fifth game in the bubble for Houston, meaning that they could still be jockeying for playoff position. If James Harden gets a game or two off, it won’t be this early in their schedule.
THE KINGS HAVE TO FINISH STRONG
Game seven is the most crucial matchup of Sacramento’s schedule. They will face off against the Pelicans for a second time Aug. 9 in what will be a must-win game. Not only would each win over the Pelicans boost the Kings in the standings, but winning both games would also give Sacramento a tiebreaker advantage over New Orleans.
The Pelicans and the Kings have identical records of 28-36. However, the Pelicans have improved since rookie superstar Zion Williamson got healthy and joined the team in late January. Additionally, the Pelicans have every incentive to play their hearts out. There is no chance the Pelicans take their foot off the gas at any point this season.
The Kings play their final regular season game Aug. 13 against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers sit comfortably atop the Western Conference with a record of 49-14 and are the favorites to win it all this season. At full strength, they are nearly impossible to beat.
However, the Kings could not face the Lakers at a better time. If any team on the schedule is going to take a game off, it’s Los Angeles in its final matchup before the playoffs begin. There is virtually no chance the Lakers fall out of the top seed, so LeBron James and Anthony Davis should get the night off, giving the Kings a real chance to steal a win.
A PATH TO THE PLAYOFFS
Catching the Grizzlies is just not realistic. The Kings would probably have to go undefeated, which feels impossible considering Sacramento’s longest win streak this season is three games. Kings fans should rest their hopes on making it into the play-in game, which only requires Sacramento to win one more game than the Trail Blazers and the Pelicans.
If the Kings are going to make that happen, the first thing they have to do is take care of business with the weakest teams. That means beating San Antonio, Orlando and Brooklyn. Going 3-0 against this group is a necessity.
They also play their direct competition twice in the Pelicans. New Orleans is a good team, but they are by no means great. While the Pelicans are trending up, the Kings were even hotter to end their season, going 13-7 in their last 20 games. If the Kings deserve a playoff spot, they have to earn it against the Pelicans.
Finally, the Kings need to get lucky at least once against their best opponents. They have to find a win against Dallas, Houston, or Los Angeles. The Lakers will be their best bet here in terms of timing. They could survive going 1-3 against this group, and winning two of those games could land them in postseason.
The magic number for Sacramento is six. If the Kings go at least 6-2 in their return to play, ideally with two of those wins coming against New Orleans, the playoffs are within reach. Anything short of that means Sacramento’s playoff drought will grow to 14 years.