NBA Bubble Preview: How can Marvin Bagley save his season with the Kings?

Marvin Bagley III is somehow both the most underrated and the most overrated player on the Sacramento Kings. He’s not nearly as bad as half of Kings fans will tell you, but not nearly as good as the other half would have you believe.

Bagley is divisiveness personified. Tweet about him or talk about him in a crowded sports bar (when that was a thing), and you would be sure to get passionate responses from both camps. Someone will chime in to say Bagley is bound for superstardom. Another will call him not only a bust, but definitive proof of an incompetent franchise.

It’s unfair. Bagley has been genuinely unlucky on a number of fronts. It’s not his fault that the Kings drafted him over MVP candidate Luka Doncic. It’s not Bagley’s fault injuries have slowed his development. It’s not his fault Richaun Holmes and Nemanja Bjelica are playing so well that there may not be room in the starting lineup for him.

However, it can’t be about bad luck or unfortunate context anymore. Bagley needs to prove he has a bright future with the Kings. The eight-game schedule in the Orlando bubble is a golden opportunity for the young big man to do just that.

PHYSICAL HEALTH

The first thing Bagley needs to do is get on the court. He has now missed 71 of a possible 146 games in his NBA career. It doesn’t matter how good you are if you can’t play. Bagley desperately needs to be available for all eight games in Orlando.

Fortunately, there is good news on this front. Bagley said Thursday that he “feels great” and is “100 percent.” He added that he cannot remember the last time he felt pain related to his injuries from earlier in the season.

Even if Bagley doesn’t take Orlando by storm, simply proving he is healthy will be a big step in the right direction. There will be a lot of rust in the NBA after four months off, so perhaps excuses could be made if he is not at his best. But even the most optimistic fan will have their doubts if another injury issue crops up.

STRENGTH AND SHOOTING

The key to Bagley taking the next step on the court is getting past his reputation as a tweener. Right now, he can’t play power forward effectively because he struggles with shooting, and he can’t play center effectively because he gets bullied by the more physical players.

Bagley seems to be aware of this hurdle, as he addressed both parts of his game in a media availability session last week. When asked what he has been working on most during the hiatus, Bagley quickly brought up shooting and adding muscle to defend centers.

While Bagley’s strength will mostly be measured by the eye test, there are statistical goals that we can hope to see from Bagley as a shooter. Bagley shot 31.3 percent from beyond the arc as a rookie, but only 18.2 percent so far in his second season.

I would put the minimum requirement to feel good about Bagley’s shooting at 30 percent from deep in Orlando, with bonus points if he clears 35 percent. He connected on a third of his 3-pointers across the final eight games of his rookie year. If he can replicate that, his stock could soar.

WINNING GAMES

The biggest problem with Bagley’s performance has been about the bottom line. His points and rebounds per game are just fine, even great at times, but the wins and losses have been nightmarish.

The Kings are 2-11 this season when Bagley plays. That includes a record of 0-6 when he is in the starting lineup. If you include his 0-4 record as a starter in his rookie year, you get a truly depressing total of zero wins as a starter. Doncic, on the other hand, has already started in 62 wins for the Dallas Mavericks.

Additionally, Bagley owns the worst net rating of any significant player on the Kings this season. When Bagley is on the court, the Kings are outscored at a rate of 12.6 points per 100 possessions. The only players with worse numbers have either been traded away (Caleb Swanigan and Wenyen Gabriel) or have spent the vast majority of their time in the G-League (Kyle Guy).

It’s alright to give minutes to a player that hurts the team in the short term when trying to develop them. However, the final eight games of the season are not the time for that. If and when Bagley plays, he needs to actually improve the results of the team.

WHAT IF IT ALL GOES WRONG?

I’m not setting the bar high. Bagley can save his season by showing up, showing off the conditioning he has spoken about, displaying the skills he says he has improved on and simply contributing to winning basketball.

It’s not too much to ask from a player who is so talented. And remember Bagley is absolutely that. That’s why he is so divisive. Everyone in Sacramento knows he has the potential to be special one day, and the fear that day will never come is what drives Kings fans crazy.

If Bagley can’t meet these modest standards, things could get ugly. Two years is usually long enough for an elite NBA prospect to prove their worth. Every other top-five pick from the 2018 draft – Doncic, Deandre Ayton, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trae Young – are dangerously close to lapping him in development.

If Bagley doesn’t show promise in the bubble, the Sacramento Kings will have to seriously consider proceeding as if they don’t have a franchise player in their front court, and even Bagley’s biggest fans will have to seriously consider embracing that.

This story was originally published July 7, 2020 at 4:00 AM.