It’s time to strip expectations from Marvin Bagley and see if he can help the Kings

For two years I have fought with my peers, my friends and myself over Marvin Bagley.

One of the first articles I ever wrote was an adamant defense of his selection by the Sacramento Kings in the 2018 NBA Draft. Yes, I would have picked Luka Doncic, but I willingly went to the mat in order to defend the minority opinion.

Sadly, I have to give up the fight entirely. It’s a terrible feeling, as it always is with injuries. None of this is Bagley’s fault. Not one bit. But just because no one is at fault doesn’t mean nothing happened.

Marvin Bagley is hurt again, this time with a lateral sprain of his right foot. His season is over.

Twenty missed games in his first year, 59 in his second. He was shut down four separate times this season. We got excited again and again, but had our hopes dashed each time.

Sacramento will have to wait nearly a full calendar year in total, January to December, between Bagley’s last appearance in an NBA game and his next one. And as recent history has taught us, it could be even longer than that.

It hurts me to say it, but the best thing the Kings can do for Bagley is to remove all expectations of the future entirely.

THE SUNK COST FALLACY

In economics, a sunk cost refers to money or resources spent that cannot be recovered. Any rational decisions made about an asset should not involve consideration of costs that are already spent.

In the business of Kings basketball, the asset in question is Bagley. Sacramento spent the No. 2 pick on him – the team’s highest draft pick since 1989. Expecting him to return that value despite the mounting evidence that he will not is unsound reasoning.

The draft pick is gone. Where Bagley was selected has no bearing on his abilities anymore.

In order to make the best decisions as a franchise going forward, the Kings need to view the resources spent on Bagley as irrelevant to the future. Evaluate him for what he is, not what he was supposed to be.

If Bagley earns minutes, that’s great. I believe he will. But playing time cannot be gifted to him based on what he did in college. Don’t waste the resources you still have by chasing the ones you lost.

NO MORE WASTED TIME

Like most players who have minimal experience in the NBA, Bagley needs time to develop. We’re talking about at least another full season worth of games where the Kings would be exposing themselves to risk by relying on him.

It would be great to have all the time in the world to develop Bagley, but that is not the Kings’ situation at all. Sacramento is desperate for success. Fourteen years without the playoffs does that to a team.

Slowing down in order to let Bagley catch up is no longer an option. The Kings have players that are hungry to win now, and they deserve their chance to do so.

Bagley and De’Aaron Fox have often been portrayed as the two-headed future of the franchise. Those days are over. Fox is the only young star on this team. And it would be wrong to imply that Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Harrison Barnes are less important to the success of the organization than Bagley.

Even Richaun Holmes, a former second-round pick who has bounced around the league, is arguably more important right now. Benching him for Bagley next year or jeopardizing his place with the team would only dig a deeper hole for the Kings.

MAYBE BAGLEY HAS A SURPRISE LEFT IN HIM

Nothing would please me more than this article becoming a time capsule of unadulterated inaccuracy. I hope that my words are mocked in 2025 when Bagley makes his third All-Star game and leads the Kings deep into the playoffs.

But it’s July of 2020, so we should act like it. We need to accept that injuries are a major problem for Bagley, and that he is still years away from being a truly special player. The Kings might not have the time to wait, and that development may never come.

Bagley should still help the Kings, but in a modest way. Any breakout down the road should be viewed as a bonus.

The No. 2 overall pick status needs to be forgotten. His label of a future franchise player should be peeled off. The reverence for him needs to fall from our lips as we begin to treat Bagley like what he actually is in this moment: Just another player on the Kings roster.