NBA Draft Preview: Precious Achiuwa is the prospect to avoid for the Sacramento Kings
The 12th pick in next month’s NBA draft will likely be new general manager Monte McNair’s first roster move with the Sacramento Kings.
The right pick could help to break a league-worst 14-year playoff drought. The wrong pick could soon turn that streak into an all-time NBA record in a few seasons. But regardless of wins and losses, McNair’s opening salvo will tell us a whole lot about what he values in the foundation of his roster.
Fan sentiment is likely to be simple: Don’t get fancy. Don’t worry about fit. Just pick the best player.
The problem is that every team does that every year, or at least they think they do. What separates a good front office from a bad one is understanding what makes one player better than the next, and more importantly, what will make them better in the future. That often involves high-concept philosophies about where the league is headed.
McNair was part of a Houston Rockets front office that had no shortage of cutting edge theories. His team made analytics-based decisions. They were ahead of the curve. Kings fans are desperate to see the same from McNair in Sacramento, and the draft could be the first indicator of that style.
If the evaluation of any prospect in the 2020 draft can tell fans if this is a new team with a new direction, it will be McNair’s appraisal of Precious Achiuwa, a familiar-feeling freshman out of Memphis.
STRENGTHS
By any measure, Achiuwa is an incredible athlete. He is big, strong and extremely fast. When his 6-foot-9, 225-pound frame reaches full speed, it is truly a sight to behold. Achiuwa will be a force in transition no matter where he ends up. He has gotten a lot of buzz in the early first round due to his physical profile alone.
Achiuwa accentuated those physical tools with one of the highest motors in the college game. He hustled constantly, making sure that lack of effort would not be a question in his evaluation process. Unlike other lottery-bound prospects, Achiuwa carries no questions about his love for the game or his ability to stay engaged.
That effort was the key to his impressive rebounding numbers. He ranked 13th in the nation and first among freshmen with 10.8 boards a game. Achiuwa is especially dangerous on the offensive glass, where he pulled down three per game. Size, athleticism and hustle are the perfect storm for any elite rebounder.
He was a productive scorer for his experience level as well, finishing 10th among freshmen with 15.8 points per game. However, Achiuwa’s age is notable for a first-year college player. The former Memphis Tiger turned 21 in September. Many sophomores in the draft are younger.
WEAKNESSES
The biggest questions about Achiuwa are not physical, but mental. He is gifted and he works hard, but he has a habit of making poor decisions. On defense, he gambles a lot. When he guesses right, he can shut a play down. When he guesses wrong, it’s an easy bucket. On offense, he constantly settles for bad jumpers.
Settling for those shots wouldn’t be a disaster if he could make them. However, his conversion rate was 28.8%. On attempts classified as “guarded” by Synergy Sports Tech, that number plummets to 5.6%. He only really made shots when at the rim or totally wide open. Free throws are usually a good indicator of how well a player can shoot. Achiuwa clocked in under 60%.
Ball movement is another serious problem with Achiuwa’s game. He didn’t look to pass often, and it didn’t go well when he did. He averaged 1.0 assists per game compared to 2.8 turnovers. Many of those giveaways came from bad passes or questionable decisions to keep the ball when he should have opted to give it up.
Ultimately, the biggest puzzle with Achiuwa is what role he will play on the court, and how valuable that role will be. He is an undersized center without many perimeter skills. There is a chance he gets caught in no-man’s land between positions.
FIT WITH THE KINGS
The problems with Achiuwa probably sound familiar to Kings fans. They’re the same issues the Kings dealt with for the entire Vlade Divac era. The comparisons to Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley are obvious.
Athletic big men with deficiencies in important areas can be dangerous. If they can’t shoot like modern forwards or protect the rim like traditional centers, they can become unusable. This was Divac’s weak spot. It’s unsurprising that Achiuwa was contacted by the Kings front office sometime before October. Based on context clues, it is likely that contact was made while Divac was still in charge.
Hopefully McNair won’t make contact again. Hopefully he knows that players like Achiuwa are already on the roster. Hopefully he realizes that the league is headed in a different direction. If he doesn’t, the Kings could be headed for the same mistakes they’ve been making for years.
Achiuwa could become a good player, but he could also fall flat. There are teams that should take that risk later in the first round. But the Kings need to find something new. They need to stay away from Achiuwa.