NBA Draft Preview: Why the Sacramento Kings should trade up for Killian Hayes
Next week’s NBA Draft is setting up to be one of the strangest in league history. There is no consensus best prospect and every analyst is predicting a different version of the first five picks. Countless scenarios appear to be in play, including multiple trades right off the bat.
The No. 1 pick is being openly shopped by Minnesota Timberwolves while the Golden State Warriors seem almost desperate to get off of pick No. 2. Reports have also surfaced the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks could move down from picks No. 6 and No. 8, respectively.
If a team outside of the top eight feels strongly about a prospect, it should be relatively easy to make a move. A weak class and limited scouting opportunities due to coronavirus restrictions have made it cheaper than ever to buy a place near the top of the draft.
The Sacramento Kings have done a nice job keeping their plans to themselves, but Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report recently suggested the team has expressed interest in Killian Hayes. If the Kings do move up in the draft, the guard from Ratiopharm Ulm in Germany is a logical target.
STRENGTHS
Hayes is capable of making any pass on the court, and he can do it with either hand. He throws smart lobs, sharp pocket passes, cross-court bullets and more. His accuracy can be off at times, but those mistakes should wane with experience. His arsenal as a playmaker is already complete, and his vision and decision making will only get better.
Playing overseas helped Hayes develop quickly on the defensive side of the ball. He has been guarding grown men since he was 16 years old. His fundamentals are sound and he has a higher level of awareness than most of his counterparts playing in the USA. He is not the quickest on-ball defender, but his off-ball defense is superb.
Hayes’ passing and defending are both amplified by his size. He stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 215 pounds. Both measurements are beyond adequate for a shooting guard and elite for a point guard. Not to mention that at just 19 years old, he could still be growing. Hayes will be able to play either guard position comfortably.
Overseas prospects compete at different levels of competition each year, which can complicate their statistics considerably. That’s the case for Hayes as a 3-point shooter. He made 39.0% percent of his attempts in the Eurocup last season, but only 21.8% in the Basketball Bundesliga. It’s best to look at indicators like form and free throw percentage for internationals, which are definitely positive for Hayes. He will be a good shooter.
WEAKNESSES
The big knock on Hayes is his athleticism. He is big and strong, but he is not particularly quick or explosive. He won’t be able to blow past defenders and fly to the rim with regularity, but that won’t doom his offensive game. He is a very crafty attacker who uses his balance and creativity to get to step-back jumpers.
But while his shot creation should develop steadily, I don’t think Hayes will be scoring in bunches early on in the NBA. Most of his offensive value will come from playmaking and spot-up shooting. It can be a little unnerving to spend a high lottery pick on a player who doesn’t average a lot of points right away.
And while he has incredible playmaking capacity, he can also get ahead of himself at times. Hayes often goes for the big pass. In doing so, he averaged over 3.3 turnovers per game in both the Eurocup and the Basketball Bundesliga. He will eventually nail those passes consistently, but he has to be allowed to make plenty of mistakes while he grows.
If you need an instant contribution to winning, Hayes probably isn’t your pick. His raw skill set will require patience. He might even look like a bust as a rookie, but I am confident he will show his star potential within three or four seasons. Hayes is a long term investment, but not all teams are going to want to take that risk.
FIT WITH THE KINGS
The Sacramento Kings are one team that should take the risk and be comfortable with bringing Hayes along slowly. They are so far behind the contenders in the Western Conference that the first-year performance of their draft pick shouldn’t matter at all.
The biggest mistake the Kings made in the last few years was passing on a crafty playmaker with plus size. I’m not saying Hayes is the next Luka Doncic, because he isn’t. But he could bring a similar style of play, and Sacramento’s new front office would be wise to value that style more than the last one did.
The big question is where Hayes will be drafted. His projected range is pretty wide. Some think he should go first overall, while others have him just inside their top 10. Unfortunately for Sacramento, no one seems to think he could slide to them at pick No. 12.
Hayes’ talent and fit with the Kings are both excellent. Making an aggressive move to draft him would be as rational as it is bold. If Hayes slides out of the first five picks, the team should get on the phone and make a deal.