Kings mailbag: Should Tyrese Haliburton start or Marvin Bagley III? Who could be traded?
Welcome back to “Who Wants to Fill Out the Starting Lineup,” where Kings fans of all kinds can come together to discuss which players should start, who should sit the bench and who should get traded away.
The Kings (5-7) have lost six of eight as they prepare to entertain the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday before concluding a seven-game homestand against the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday at Golden 1 Center. The Kings will hang around the West Coast for another week before embarking on a six-game road trip.
Kings coach Luke Walton has hinted at lineup changes as fans clamor for rookie sensation Tyrese Haliburton, but the data suggests the starting unit has been good and Haliburton is great anytime he gets in the game. Should Haliburton start? Should Marvin Bagley III come off the bench? Which players could be traded now that the first domino has fallen with the blockbuster move that sent James Harden from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets?
Let’s discuss in this week’s Kings mailbag.
Note: Some questions have been edited for length or clarity.
Kings meeting expectations?
@Mesofunblog asks: You seem to follow the team closely. Are they performing to expectations, exceeding expectations or playing below expectations?
Thanks for the question, kind stranger. The Kings exceeded expectations with two early wins over the Denver Nuggets and another over the Phoenix Suns, but since then they’ve leveled off, losing six of eight to fall two games below .500.
Sacramento’s 5-7 record puts the Kings on pace to go 30-42 in this 72-game season. No one in the organization would call that a success, and no one will say they’ve met expectations, but not much was expected of a team that was widely projected to finish at the bottom of the Western Conference.
In early December, we explained general manager Monte McNair was heading for a top pick in a stacked 2021 NBA Draft with more than $53 million in expiring contracts, team options and nonguaranteed money for the 2021-22 season. That’s still the expectation.
The Kings will probably win 30-33 games, vie for one of the play-in spots and ultimately come up short, missing the playoffs for the 15th year in a row to match the longest playoff drought in NBA history. They could exceed those expectations and move into the next tier of playoff contenders if a couple of young players make a leap over the course of the season, but at the moment the Kings still look like a lottery team.
Will Tyrese Haliburton start?
@ChrisFua asks: Do you think Tyrese Haliburton will crack the starting lineup this season?
That might depend on what happens with the rest of the roster leading up to the trade deadline, but the Kings don’t have to hurry Haliburton into the starting lineup.
The rookie combo guard is already fourth on the team in minutes, averaging 28.9 per game. Haliburton has been a part of four of the team’s five most-used lineup combinations and he is getting clutch fourth-quarter minutes.
Haliburton’s well-rounded skill set and versatility allow him to slide in seamlessly with different groups. He can run with the starters or slow it down with veterans such as Cory Joseph, Nemanja Bjelica and Hassan Whiteside. Kings forward Harrison Barnes recently used an interesting word to describe Haliburton.
“Tyrese is a connector,” Barnes said. “His ability to come into the game and fill the gaps and his playmaking is huge for us.”
Haliburton is probably in the right role for now. If one of the starters gets injured, traded or benched, Haliburton would probably move into the starting lineup. The Kings will have total confidence in him when the time comes, but they don’t have to rush it.
Marvin Bagley III to the bench?
@Huizzle asks: Per FiveThirtyEight.com, Marvin Bagley III has the worst WAR for power forwards in the league. How much longer does he stay in the starting lineup? Would his development benefit playing from the bench?
The Kings might have to ask themselves that question at some point, but for now they are trying to fast-track Bagley’s development after an injury-plagued sophomore season in the NBA.
Walton has benched Bagley in the fourth quarter a couple of times and his staff has discussed lineup changes, but so far they’ve stuck with De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Barnes, Bagley and RIchaun Holmes. That group, by far the team’s most-used lineup with more than 133 minutes of shared floor time, has a plus-14.1 rating per 100 possessions, according to Basketball-Reference.com, so there’s data to support the decision.
The second-most-used lineup is probably what you would get if Bagley goes to the bench: Fox, Hield, Haliburton, Barnes and Holmes. That’s a really intriguing lineup and we’ll certainly see more of it, but that group, surprisingly, has a minus-7.0 rating per 100 possessions.
Bagley is averaging 12.2 points and 7.8 rebounds. He’s shooting just 43.1% from the field after going 29 of 81 (.358) to start the season, but he’s knocking down 34.5% from 3-point range on 2.4 attempts per game after shooting 31.3% as a rookie and 18.2% last season. Bagley has made 6 of 14 (.429) from 3-point range over the past five games and has done some nice things defensively, staying down in his stance, taking charges, blocking shots and showing glimpses of fundamental improvement.
Here are the most important numbers: The Kings have played 12 games this season and Bagley has appeared in all 12, logging 299 minutes. He is 35 minutes away from surpassing his total for the 2019-20 season, when he was limited to 13 games due to injuries. The Kings might have to make a change at some point, but they hope that isn’t necessary and for now Walton is pleased to see recent signs of progress.
Future of Richaun Holmes
@LetsGoSac asks: What do you think the chances are that Richaun Holmes stays in Sacramento after this season?
There was a time when I thought the Kings would reluctantly let Holmes go when he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer, but now I’m not so sure.
Holmes came to Sacramento as the team’s third center in 2019, but he quickly established himself as the starter, averaging career highs of 12.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks during a breakout season at age 26. He has been even better this season, averaging 13.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks.
Holmes’ shooting percentage has gone up from 64.8% to 69.7%. His free-throw shooting has improved from 78.8% to 82.8%. He’s averaging a career-high 2.1 assists per game after averaging 1.0 last season. He leads the team’s rotation players in offensive rating (140) and ranks second in defensive rating (116) behind only Hassan Whiteside. He is No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating. He ranks second in 2-point field-goal percentage (.701) and true shooting percentage (.732).
It once seemed like a breakout season by Bagley would make Holmes somewhat expendable, but now it’s hard to imagine where the Kings would be without him. Holmes has formed strong relationships within the Kings organization and the Sacramento community. He likes it here and the Kings like him, too.
“He’s all energy,” Walton said. “He’s been a journeyman in this league, so I think he really likes the fact that he feels so part of this group, and he’s earned the trust and the belief that the coaching staff has in him and his teammates have in him.
“You look at our close games even going back to last year where he was originally the third center … he makes winning plays for us. He works extremely hard, never complains, and is just willing to do all the dirty work that it takes to win in the NBA.”
The Kings will still have to contend with the free-agent market, but it might make sense to bring him back depending on what else they do with the roster.
Trade talk
@SirBotMan asks: Who are the Kings most likely to trade this season?
Fox and Haliburton are probably the only players who are untouchable.
The Kings will take calls on a collection of veterans on expiring or nonguaranteed deals who could fill a role for a playoff contender down the stretch. This includes Joseph, Glenn Robinson III, Bjelica, Whiteside, Holmes and Jabari Parker.
There is also a good possibility McNair will entertain offers for Hield and Barnes if he has a chance to acquire younger talent and more financial flexibility. Hield, an elite shooter who is in the first year of a four-year, $86 million deal, has made 14 3-pointers in the past two games after struggling early. Barnes, who is in the second year of a four-year, $85 million deal with a declining salary structure, is playing the best basketball of his career. Either player could help a playoff contender.
This story was originally published January 15, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
