Kings mailbag: Can Sacramento make playoffs? Projected record and Luke Walton’s rotation
.jpg "Sacramento Kings guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) goes to the basket with center Richaun Holmes, left, during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)")
Aaaaand we’re back! Another season of Kings basketball means another year of Kings mailbags, a place you can come to pose questions, share your hopes and dreams, air grievances and seek counsel through all the ups and downs.
The tale of the 2021-22 NBA season will feature intriguing plots, subplots and side plots with twists, turns, trades (?!?) and maybe some shenanigans, but the overarching question in Sacramento is the same as always: Will this be the year the Kings finally get back to the playoffs?
Has general manager Monte McNair assembled the right pieces? Can he make a move that puts the Kings over the top? Can coach Luke Walton command the level of focus, intensity and discipline needed to reach the promised land? Does this team have what it takes to take this city higher? That’s what we all want to know. And we’ll see.
At this point, the Kings are 3-0 in preseason play with one game remaining against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday at Golden 1 Center. They will open the regular season on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers on Oct. 20.
If the Kings make the playoffs for the first time since 2006, they will end the NBA’s longest active playoff drought after 15 consecutive losing seasons. If they don’t, they’ll surpass the Buffalo Braves/San Diego Clippers/Los Angeles Clippers for the longest playoff drought in NBA history.
With the advent of the play-in games, we should probably establish some ground rules before we begin. While making the play-in tournament would technically count as a postseason appearance, it won’t end Sacramento’s playoff drought unless the Kings move through the play-in round to secure an actual playoff spot as one of the top eight seeds.
Agreed? Great. Now, let’s get to the first Kings mailbag of the new season.
Note: Some questions have been edited for length or clarity.
Predicted record
@LaBradfordS asks: What is your prediction for the Kings’ regular-season record?
The latest odds from FanDuel put the over-under at 36.5 wins, up from 35.5 earlier this week. The oddsmakers are usually pretty good at this, but I like the over and it’s not crazy to think they can exceed that mark by two or three games. We can revise this if the Kings are really clicking over the first 10 or 20 games, but for now I’ll project a record of 39-43.
That certainly wouldn’t be enough for the Kings to secure one of six automatic playoff bids in the Western Conference, but it would probably make them one of the last two teams in the play-in tournament. The Kings could be a little better or worse depending on injuries — and a big trade could change everything — but for now I’m predicting a competitive play-in race involving some combination of the Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Reason for optimism?
@ayjaymiracle asks: Am I wrong for feeling optimistic about .500?
Nope, that’s a good place to set the bar. Certain things will have to happen for the Kings to go .500 over the course of an 82-game season, but your optimism isn’t unfounded.
The Kings were the worst defensive team in the league last season and the second-worst of all-time by some measures. If they can take a meaningful step forward, they could very well be a team that hovers around the .500 mark this season.
The addition of rookie first-round draft pick Davion Mitchell will certainly help, but the Kings need improved defense from De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes and Marvin Bagley III as well. If this team shows collective growth at that end of the floor, and if they can avoid major injury problems, it’s not unrealistic to believe the Kings could finish .500 for the first time since their last playoff appearance in 2005-06.
Rotation
@ethantremblay20 asks: As of now, it looks like there are 11 players who can realistically make the regular rotation. Usually nine is the most consistent number for a rotation. Who are the odd men out? My guess is Alex Len and Terence Davis.
Sounds like you have a pretty good grasp of the situation as the competition for minutes has played out in training camp.
Walton has talked about his preference for a tighter eight-man rotation in the past, but he recently told us he expects to go deeper into his bench this season. We’ll probably see nine or 10 players get regular rotation minutes.
The 11 players you’re talking about would include Fox, Haliburton, Hield, Mitchell, Davis, Barnes, Bagley, Len, Richaun Holmes, Maurice Harkless and Tristan Thompson. Davis will probably play more when Hield isn’t hitting shots and less when Hield gets hot. We might see something similar with Thompson and Len depending on matchups or performance.
Role of ‘The Microwave’
@GordonGeco asks: Will “The Microwave” Terence Davis be part of the rotation?
As noted above, I do believe there’s a role for Davis on this team. The Kings will run a lot of three-guard sets, so there should be minutes for Davis. That will probably vary depending on matchups, with more or less minutes for Davis depending on how Haliburton, Hield and Mitchell are playing.
The Kings liked what they saw from Davis last season after acquiring him in a trade with the Toronto Raptors. They also like what they’ve seen from his during this preseason. He came off the bench to post 17 points, three rebounds, two assists and two steals in Monday’s 107-93 win over the Trail Blazers. Davis’ shooting can be streaky, but he is an explosive scorer when he gets hot.
Reason to believe?
@jwwalter1 asks: Should we believe?
According to the Magic 8 Ball: “Signs point to yes.”
I think I would agree with that. I’m predicting 39 wins because, after all these years, the Kings have to prove they merit loftier projections, but as stated earlier, there is reason for optimism.
Walton is entering his third season in Sacramento and this is his first real training camp following a preseason trip to India in 2019 and COVID-19 complications in 2020. He knows this roster well and has shown an ability to bring out the best in players like Fox, Barnes and Holmes, all of whom had career years last season. Walton and his staff have also done a good job with young players like Haliburton and Mitchell.
Holmes, Harkless and Davis all chose to return despite having an opportunity to leave as free agents. Len chose to return after a brief stint with the Kings in 2019-20. They say the culture is changing. The continuity between players and coaches is better than it’s been in quite some time. If you’re looking for a reason to believe, that’s probably as good as any.
Hot dog
@mickey_ronin asks: Is a hot dog a sandwich?
No. Carmichael Dave of KHTK Sports 1140 has been fueling this controversy for years and now the Merriam-Webster Dictionary has caved to outside pressure from the hot dog-is-a-sandwich community, but that’s a lie. A hot dog is a hot dog, not a sandwich. Get off my lawn with that nonsense.
This story was originally published October 13, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
