Kings summer prospectus: NBA draft, lottery odds, free agency, trades, salary cap, needs
The Kings will wait until the Golden State Warriors’ season is over before introducing new head coach Mike Brown and the staff he will bring to Sacramento, but the organization has lots of work to do between now and then.
The NBA draft lottery will be held Tuesday in Chicago with the draft scheduled for June 23 in New York. The Kings have already held three predraft workouts with many more to come over the next six weeks.
Free agency will follow in July as the Kings embark on a critical offseason. Monte McNair is entering what could be his third and final season as general manager if the Kings can’t find a way to end their NBA-record 16-year playoff drought. McNair will look at all options through the draft, trades and free agency to assemble a winning team.
Here’s a look at some of the key dates, details and decisions facing the Kings this summer.
Predraft workouts
The Kings held their first predraft workouts Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, sources told The Sacramento Bee.
The first included Jaden Shackelford (Alabama), Johnny Juzang (UCLA), Hyunjung Lee (Davidson), Tyler Burton (Richmond), Keion Brooks (Kentucky) and Justyn Mutts (Virginia Tech).
The second featured Grayson Murphy (Belmont), A.J. Green (Northern Iowa), Jalen Adaway (St. Bonaventure), Buddy Boeheim (Syracuse), Keve Aluma (Virginia Tech) and Grant Golden (Richmond).
The third included Will Richardson (Oregon), Jamal Bieniemy (UTEP), Lester Quinones (Memphis), Jeriah Horne (Tulsa), Kenneth Lofton Jr. (Louisiana Tech) and Efe Abogidi (Washington State).
Most of these players are potential second-round picks or undrafted free-agent targets. Business will pick up with higher-profile prospects coming to Sacramento after the lottery is held to determine which pick the Kings will have in the draft.
NBA draft lottery
The NBA draft lottery will take place Tuesday in Chicago. Each of the 14 teams that failed to reach the playoffs will send a representative to the Windy City to watch NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum pull ping-pong balls out of the lottery machine. The Kings will be represented by two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis, who came to Sacramento in the February trade that sent Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield to the Indiana Pacers.
The Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons — the teams with the three worst records during the regular season — will each have a 14% chance of winning the lottery to secure the No. 1 pick. The lottery will determine the first four picks in the draft. The remaining lottery teams will make their selections in inverse order of their regular-season records.
The Kings, who went 30-52 to finish with the seventh-worst record in the league, will have a 7.5% chance of winning the No. 1 pick and a 32% chance of landing in the top four. They have a 19.7% chance of holding at No. 7, a 34.1% chance of falling to No. 8, a 12.9% chance of dropping to No. 9 and a 1.3% chance of sliding to No. 10.
NBA draft
The NBA draft will be held June 23 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
Gonzaga center Chet Holmgren, Auburn power forward Jabari Smith and Duke power forward Paolo Banchero are widely projected as the top three picks in the draft. Other top prospects include Purdue shooting guard Jaden Ivey, Kentucky shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe, Iowa power forward Keegan Murray and Duke small forward AJ Griffin.
The Kings are projected to have the No. 7 pick based on how they finished in the regular season, but they are statistically more likely to land at No. 8 (34.1%) than No. 7 (19.7%).
At this point, though, mock drafts are slotting Sacramento in at No. 7 based on pre-lottery position. Tankathon.com projects the Kings will select Griffin, a 6-6, 222-pound small forward. CBS Sports has them taking Ochai Agbaji, a 6-5, 215-pound shooting guard from Kansas. NBA Draft Room has them taking Jalen Duren, a 6-11, 250-pound center from Memphis who dominates around the rim at both ends of the floor.
The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor decided to have some fun, imagining what would happen if the ping-pong balls produced a few surprises under a scenario in which the Kings landed the No. 4 pick. O’Connor predicted the Kings would take Sharpe, a 6-6, 175-pound guard who came out of Dream City Christian High School in Arizona as the No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2022, but never played a game in his one season at Kentucky.
Free agency
Restricted free agents can begin to sign offer sheets when free agency begins July 1 with the official start of the 2022-23 league year. Teams can sign players when the moratorium ends July 6.
The Kings will have to decide what to do with their own free agents. Guard Jeremy Lamb, guard Josh Jackson and center Damian Jones will be unrestricted free agents.
Guard Donte DiVincenzo and center Neemias Queta are entering restricted free agency. The Kings can reserve the right to match with a $1.58 million qualifying offer to Queta, but DiVincenzo will be more expensive with a qualifying offer of $6.6 million and a cap hold of $14 million.
The top potential free agents include Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden, Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine, Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal, Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving, Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton and Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges.
Salary cap
The salary cap for the 2022-23 season is expected to be $122 million with a $149 million luxury-tax line.
The Kings have $106.6 million committed to De’Aaron Fox ($30.4 million); Sabonis ($18.5 million); Harrison Barnes ($18.4 million); Richaun Holmes ($11.2 million); Justin Holiday ($6.3 million); Davion Mitchell ($4.8 million); Maurice Harkless ($4.6 million); Terence Davis ($4 million); Alex Len ($3.9 million); Trey Lyles ($2.65 million/team option); and Chimezie Metu ($1.9 million/nonguaranteed).
According to Spotrac’s Keith Smith, the Kings can clear nearly $11.2 million to achieve maximum possible cap space if all options, cap holds and exceptions are declined, waived or renounced. However, Smith projects them to be $23.9 million over the cap based on guaranteed salaries, dead cap from non-guaranteed contracts, estimated exercised and declined options, and estimated retained cap holds and draft pool cap holds.
This will leave the Kings with the $10.3 million mid-level exception and the $4 million biannual exception as their only means of acquiring players through free agency.
Team needs
Shooting and defense will be an organizational focus this summer. The Kings like what they have in Fox and Sabonis — Fox and the Ox — but the front office will be looking for a way to add an impact player to the group they have. Given the salary cap situation, they would likely have to pull off another big trade.
The Kings hope to at least find reinforcements on the wings who provide some combination of size, length, shooting and defense. The shooting guard and forward spots will be big focal points for the Kings. They have to decide whether they want to start DiVincenzo or maybe Davis at shooting guard, or if they can upgrade somehow.
Scouts will tell you the shooting guard spot is always the easiest to address. What the Kings would really like is an opportunity to add a big piece to their frontcourt.
Atlanta Hawks power forward John Collins and Philadelphia 76ers power forward Tobias Harris have been linked to the Kings in trade rumors in the past. Bridges will be a restricted free agent in Charlotte. T.J. Warren will be an unrestricted free agent after three injury plagued seasons with the Indiana Pacers. Someone of that caliber could bring a lot to this team.
Trade winds
McNair will be working the phones this summer in search of a deal to bring another key piece to the Kings.
Holmes started 136 games over the past three seasons, but he was relegated to a backup role when the Kings acquired Sabonis. Sources said the Kings explored trade possibilities before the February trade deadline. They will continue to look at those possibilities this summer.
The Kings have several players on expiring contracts who could also be included in a trade, including Barnes, Holiday, Harkless, Davis, Len, Lyles and Metu. If they don’t get lucky in the lottery and vault into the top four, they could try to shop a package that includes their first-round draft pick to acquire another core piece.
This story was originally published May 14, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
