NBA draft roundtable: Who should the Sacramento Kings take? Is chaos coming?
It’s that magical time of year when Sacramento Kings fans have forgotten the disappointments of the previous season and they’re ready to get hurt again. Or maybe not, for a change.
We’re talking, of course, about Thursday night’s NBA draft. The Kings got lucky and moved up to the No. 4 pick. If they choose wisely or make a sage trade, they might get somebody who slots in with All-Star center Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, forming a young nucleus with playoff potential. Or it could all explode in a supernova of poor decision-making, as has been known to happen.
There’s a lot on the line and we’re covering all the angles with our first NBA draft roundtable. The Bee’s Jason Anderson, Cameron Salerno, Jim Patrick and Chris Biderman will tackle all the big questions, and there’s none bigger than the one staring us in the face.
Is this a make-or-break year for the Kings?
Anderson: This certainly looks like a make-or-break year for Kings general manager Monte McNair, who appears to be entering the final year of his contract with something of a win-now mandate from ownership. The organization is also feeling the heat from fans after falling to 29th in the NBA in average attendance last season. If the Kings can’t find a way to win after 16 consecutive losing seasons, McNair could be out of a job and fans could revolt if there is no clear sense of direction.
Biderman: It could be make or break in the sense that lacking progress could cost people their jobs – general manager Monte McNair, specifically. We know owner Vivek Ronadive has given a short leash to executives in the past, and the whisper’s that he’s hell bent on ending the 16-year playoff drought feel legit. I think the Kings have to show real progress, even if it means missing the playoffs again, for this season to be satisfactory. But they have to understand Rome wasn’t built in a day.
Patrick: There’s obviously a lot on the line. It’s not like the franchise is going to fold if this draft is a bust, but general manager Monte McNair’s job could well be on the line. He’s in the last year of his contract and this team won 30 games last season. The Kings need about 40 wins to be assured of a playoff spot. That’s an awful lot to put on the shoulders of a rookie taken with the No. 4 pick. But that’s exactly where we’re at.
Salerno: Monte McNair pushed his chips to the table in February when he traded fan-favorite Tyrese Haliburton in a deal that landed the Kings a two-time All-Star in Domantas Sabonis. Trading Haliburton sent a message that McNair wanted to speed up the rebuild timeline. Vivek Ranadive is the one who determines whether McNair has been successful. If the Kings want to end the playoff drought soon, it will come down to the moves they make the next week and beyond. The goal should be the play-in tournament next season, but that was also the goal last season.
How many of the top picks are locked into place prior to the Kings’ choice?
Patrick: It seems like every year the Kings are one slot back from the best-possible available players. This year, everybody’s saying the top three are Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith, possibly in that order. A week ago, I’d say there’s no chance Ivey bumps into that group. But Mr. Anderson has reported Ivey’s draft stock is rising, and that might turn Thursday’s draft into chaos.
Anderson: Smith, Holmgren and Banchero are almost universally projected as the top three picks, but the Jaden Ivey buzz is real and could continue to grow. We know numerous teams are trying to trade up to No. 4 to get him. One high-level league source told me he believes Ivey and Holmgren are the two best players in the draft. This source’s team is in no position to draft either player, but other NBA executives could feel the same way. Ivey only worked out for two teams during the pre-draft process. One was the Detroit Pistons, who have the No. 5 pick. The other was the Orlando Magic, which is perched atop the draft board at No. 1.
Biderman: During my intense scouting sessions (Googling and watching on YouTube), it’s been apparent some combination of Holmgren, Banchero and Smith will be the first three picks. The big intrigue going into the draft: what’s the order? My biggest intrigue: would the Kings be willing to move up from No. 4? Banchero has some Chris Webber vibes to his game and might be the perfect complement to Domantas Sabonis in the front court. As long as De’Aaron Fox’s contract makes him super difficult to trade, the Kings should get to a scenario where they aren’t forced to draft Ivey.
Salerno: This draft is unique because for the first time in years there isn’t a consensus top prospect. Most view that guy to be Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr., but some have made the case for Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren to go No. 1 to the Orlando Magic. People will say this is a three player draft but I would argue it’s a four player draft. Depending on the order, the first three picks of Smith Jr., Holmgren and Paolo Banchero seem pretty set in stone. There is some buzz around the league (that has been reported) that Oklahoma City likes Ivey. Would they take him at No. 2? I doubt it. But anything can happen. Jaden Ivey should be there for the taking at No. 4, if that’s the route the Kings chose to go.
What’s the potential for something wild happening with the Kings on Thursday?
Anderson: I’m going to go ahead and issue a Something Wild warning for Thursday. The possibilities are endless. McNair has the No. 4 pick, two second-round picks, all of his future first-round picks, Richaun Holmes and several players on expiring contracts, including Harrison Barnes, to utilize as trade chips. McNair could execute a series of moves to completely transform his roster in just a matter of minutes. Of course, he could just take Ivey at No. 4 and call it a day, but ultimately that might cost McNair his job if the Kings can’t end their NBA-record 16-year playoff drought next season.
Biderman: I mean, it’s the Kings. Most of the last decade draft-wise has been wild in hindsight. Let’s hope for the fans’ sake they don’t pass on a generational talent for another future also-ran.
Patrick: Pretty high! They’re being linked to trade rumors, as Jaden Ivey’s stock seems to be on the rise. Jason Anderson has had stories about the offers flying Sacramento’s way. (Nice job, Jason!) And it’s not like McNair is afraid to make a deal. He traded Tyrese Haliburton, for crying out loud. Honestly, the most surprising thing to me would be if the top three guys get selected as everyone’s predicting, and the Kings quietly take Ivey and move on.
Salerno: Maybe the Kings will pick me at No. 4 on Thursday. That would be pretty wild, since I haven’t played organized basketball since my freshman year of high school. In all seriousness, Thursday has the potential to be wild. Every year, there are always rumors about teams trading up and down. This year feels different. The Kings might be the team that gets the party started with wild moves if they decide to trade the pick. There are reportedly multiple suitors for Jaden Ivey, if the Kings want to trade back. It’s rare to be in a position the Kings are in. The basketball Gods blessed Sacramento the right to move up into the top four for the second time in five years. I think everyone knows what happened last time (sorry Marvin Bagley lll).
What do you think the Kings will do Thursday night?
Anderson: The Kings will draft Ivey or Iowa forward Keegan Murray at No. 4 unless they get the right trade offer. Ultimately, I believe they will make a deal, but if an attractive trade doesn’t materialize, they will need to choose between Ivey and Murray. There are legitimate questions about Ivey’s fit with Fox given their similar strengths and weaknesses. Offensively, they would be a blur. Defensively, it could be a disaster. Taking the best player available is usually the prudent approach, but that might not be the case in Kings Land this year given the makeup of the draft board and the sense of urgency in Sacramento. In this situation, maximizing the value of the pick might mean trading back once or even twice to acquire proven vets along with a young player who better addresses their needs.
Biderman: I’m determined to manifest this trade-up idea. I think the Kings will move to No. 2 or 3 and get Banchero or Smith, whoever’s available (I’m not a Holmgren guy but wouldn’t hate the idea given his defensive skills). The only way the Kings can climb out of their generation-long rut is to draft a star that can carry the franchise. Someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ja Morant and/or Nikola Jokic that can bring a small-market team back to relevance. I understand maximizing the number of assets can be important, but if they believe one of those top three guys can be a generational star, that’s worth far more than whatever it would cost to move up. Plus it would fire up the fan base.
Patrick: The thing about drafting Ivey is the Kings already have Davion Mitchell and Fox in their backcourt. Obviously, they’re not afraid of creating a logjam and then making a trade in the middle of the season. But that’s not a move a playoff contender makes, and the Kings very much want to play past the end of April next season. (Yes, I copied and pasted that from the past 16 times we’ve done this.) The Kings need a home-run swing and I think they make a trade, probably to get out of the pick and pick up a solid wing who can fit right into the starting lineup.
Salerno: Monte McNair seems like a smart man. It’s honestly very simple. If Jaden Ivey is there or one of the other top three prospects falls to No. 4, you take him. I’m not opposed to taking Keegan Murray, but his ceiling is far lower than someone like Jaden Ivey. The reason why taking Murray at No. 4 would be malpractice is because multiple teams are interested in trading up to draft Ivey. If Murray is the player McNair wants, he should trade down and acquire some assets/future picks in the process. That would be a win. Taking Murray at No. 4 and not maximizing the value of the pick you moved up (in the lottery) to get would be bad. The Kings have done worse drafting in the last decade, so taking Murray at No. 4 wouldn’t be the worst option (see what I did there. Look at Ivey’s quote for context).
Is there a top prospect you think the Kings should avoid?
Patrick: I don’t like Holmgren. I just don’t. Maybe it’s because my childhood Minnesota Timberwolves took Luc Longley in the lottery. Or there’s the Shawn Bradley fiasco. Or basically any other lanky giant who lacks, you know, muscles. (Who am I to talk? Great question, but I’m not a top NBA prospect, for some reason.)
Salerno: For me it’s Holmgren. He is the biggest risk of any prospect inside the top-5. He has the potential to be a unicorn but also has the potential to be a major draft bust. I also thought in 2018 Luka Doncic might be a risk to take at No. 2 so don’t put too much stock into this. I’m also hesitant about the Kings drafting Murray at No. 4. He would be a good player to draft if the Kings moved back and got assets in return, but he is not the best player available at No. 4. McNair has shown in his first two drafts he will pick the best player available. Haliburton and Davion Mitchell (like Jaden Ivey) didn’t work out for the team. So I wouldn’t think that would be a reason they don’t draft Ivey. Is Murray a good fit for the Kings? Sure. But as a wise man once said, picking for fit keeps you in the lottery. Taking the BPA gets you out of it. The Kings drafted for fit in 2018 by taking Bagley lll over Doncic. They believed they had their guard of the future in De’Aaron Fox and (although it’s not confirmed) you have to think a reason they passed on Luka was because of fit. Don’t make the same mistake twice. Jaden Ivey at No. 4.
Biderman: I mentioned it before, but I think the Kings should avoid backing themselves into a position where they have to draft Ivey as the best player available. The Kings need to find the best possible outcome, which isn’t always synonymous with drafting the best available player. Hear me out. Fox is untradeable. We learned that during February’s trade deadline when the team had to part with Tyrese Haliburton in order to unclog the log jam at point guard. Nobody (smart) in the NBA would think Fox on his max deal is more valuable than Haliburton on a rookie contract. Anyway, ending up with Ivey and an untradeable Fox could lead to a toxic scenario which could put the organization back a year or two. We know Sacramento can’t afford to be wasting any more seasons over histrionics. We know Ivey doesn’t want to be in Sacramento based on the stories coming out before the draft, and it’s fair to ask how Fox would feel if the Kings drafted yet another point guard that needs the ball in his hands. Ivey might be the best player available at four, but adding him with Fox should be something they avoid at all costs (unless they can somehow move Fox this summer without taking a bath in the deal). Trade out from No. 4 if Ivey’s there and target Murray if you don’t move up (but please, move up).
Anderson: In my mind, the answer to this question is Shaedon Sharpe. The 19-year-old shooting guard could be destined for stardom. He is absolutely oozing with talent and big-time abilities with prototypical size and length for his position, but he hasn’t played since high school and remains unproven against adult competition. If Sacramento was playing the long game and picking in the 6-10 range, Sharpe might be worth the risk, but he will probably need time to develop and time is not a luxury the Kings can afford.