Can Kings land No. 1 pick in NBA draft? Let’s examine past lottery results
The outcome of Sunday’s NBA draft lottery could make or break the future of the Sacramento Kings.
A top pick would give the Kings an opportunity to draft a transformational talent who could help them build a sustainable winner for the first time since the turn of the century.
The Kings have been in the lottery 28 times in 41 years since the NBA adopted the lottery system in 1985. They have been awarded the No. 1 pick only once, in 1989, when they missed badly with the selection of draft bust Pervis Ellison.
Under the current lottery format, which was implemented in 2019, the teams with the three worst records have a 52.1% chance of securing one of the top four picks and a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick. The Kings will enter this year’s lottery in the fifth position after going 22-60 to tie the Utah Jazz for the fourth-worst record. They have a 45.2% chance at a top-four pick and an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick.
Here’s how teams in the fifth position have fared under the current lottery format:
2019: Atlanta Hawks dropped from fifth to eighth
2020: Detroit Pistons dropped from fifth to seventh
2021: Cleveland Cavaliers jumped from fifth to third
2022: Indiana Pacers dropped from fifth to sixth
2023: Portland Trail Blazers jumped from fifth to third
2024: San Antonio Spurs jumped from fifth to fourth
2025: Philadelphia 76ers jumped from fifth to third
The team with the worst record has never been awarded the No. 1 pick under the current lottery system. Likewise, a team in the fifth position has yet to secure the No. 1 pick under the current format.
Among the teams that entered the lottery in the fifth position, four have moved up in the draft and three have moved down. The Cavaliers, Blazers and 76ers moved up two spots to No. 3 while the Spurs moved up one spot to No. 4. The Hawks dropped to eighth, the Pistons dropped to seventh and the Pacers dropped to sixth.
The Kings have a 2% chance of staying at No. 5, an 18.2% chance of falling to No. 6, a 25.5% chance of falling to No. 7, an 8.5% chance of falling to No. 8 and a 0.6% chance of falling to No. 9.
BYU forward AJ Dybantsa, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, Duke forward Cameron Boozer and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson are widely projected as the top picks in the draft. Other projected top-10 picks include Houston guard Kingston Flemmings, Illinois guard Keaton Wagler, Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr., Tennessee forward Nate Ament, Arizona guard Brayden Burries and Louisville guard Mikel Brown Jr.
