49ers mailbag: What to expect from Marshawn Lynch; time to worry about the defense?
The 49ers are days away from their biggest regular season game in years, which could go a long way toward making their path easier to the Super Bowl.
Beat the Seahawks and they’ll be the No. 1 seed with a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Lose, and they’ll likely be the No. 5 seed without a realistic shot at hosting a game at Levi’s Stadium. Which would also likely mean a trip to play the Philadelphia Eagles, who control the NFC East after beating the Cowboys on Sunday. Philly would clinch the division at 9-7 with a victory next week against the Giants.
With the 49ers getting an extra day off during this holiday week, let’s get to our final weekly mailbag of the regular season.
P.J. asks: What’s with this news about Marshawn Lynch? Would he even play this Sunday? Last time I saw him play he didn’t have the explosiveness like when he started.
Lynch flew up to meet and workout with the Seahawks on Monday, Pete Carroll said during on 710 ESPN in Seattle. Carroll sounded optimistic about Lynch’s chances at playing, but he couched it by saying he doesn’t know what kind of shape Lynch is in.
Obviously it would be difficult for any player to come off the street and contribute in a high-leverage game right away. But Lynch is different. He won’t have the same level of explosiveness as he did earlier this decade, when he was one of the best running backs in football. But he could provide a big emotional lift for a team that could use it.
The Seahawks are decimated by injuries at the wrong time. Their top three running backs are all on the shelf, including Chris Carson, who had well over 1,200 yards this season. Safety Quandre Diggs (ankle) and left tackle Duane Brown (knee) aren’t expected to play, though defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is expected to return after missing two games with a core injury.
Carroll sounded like he wanted people to get excited about the possibility of bringing Lynch back. Which means he’s expecting Lynch’s potential reunion to give the team, and the fan base, a jolt of energy. We know how loud CenturyLink Field can be — and we know how much the fans love Lynch. Getting him back in uniform might be good for the adrenaline in the building alone.
But, as you point out, Lynch is 33, he hasn’t played this season and looked slower during his stint with the Raiders. How productive he would be depends on the shape he’s in. But my guess is the Seahawks are expecting an emotional pick-me-up more than a 100-yard rusher.
Markus Brown asks: What’s the biggest reason for the major drop off in performance from the defense?
I wrote about that at length, here.
To sum it up, injuries are taking their tole.
Defensive end Ronald Blair III was excellent in his role as a bit player. As was nose tackle D.J. Jones, who allowed others along the defensive front to work at their natural positions. They’re both done for the year with knee and ankle injuries respectively.
Replacing Blair and Jones has been a multiplayer effort, which has strained the entire defensive line, including the main guys, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner.
Dee Ford missing four of the past five games hasn’t helped, either. He’s not expected to play in Seattle, Kyle Shanahan said Sunday, though that could change if he makes significant progress this week. Ford has tabbed himself as day-to-day and wouldn’t put a stamp on his return date.
Nick Bosa is playing almost every down after getting plenty of breathers early in the season. Bosa, of course, appeared in only three games during his final season at Ohio State. And even when he was healthy in his earlier seasons, the Buckeyes used a healthy rotation to keep defensive linemen fresh. The 49ers don’t have that luxury.
Then there’s the recent absence of Jaquiski Tartt (ribs), who’s been solid this season. He’s a good tackler, particularly near the line of scrimmage, and is fast enough to play as a deep safety on the back end. And there’s been a drop off from Kwon Alexander to rookie Dre Greenlaw, which is to be expected, though Greenlaw hasn’t performed poorly. Alexander was playing at a high level before his pectoral injury (which he’s still hoping to return from at some point in the playoffs, by the way).
Pair the injuries with the uptick in competition, and the 49ers’ defense has gone from elite to merely very good. San Francisco dominated its string against lackluster quarterbacks. The defense’s run of mediocrity has come against elite offenses, including Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta and most recently, the Rams.
It all underscores the importance of winning Sunday and getting a first-round bye, which I also wrote about earlier.
Pastor Wililam A. Carter Jr. asks: Why are the 49ers still starting (Witherspoon)? He’s been a weak link in the secondary and I believe it’s gonna cost them if they don’t make a change before next game or the playoffs.
Witherspoon was stellar to start the season as everything was clicking defensively. His downturn the last few games has come while the pass rush has taken a noticeable step back because of the issues listed above.
Players and coaches have spent the past two seasons discussing the benefits of tying the pass rush together with the coverage. It’s an abstract concept that’s easier to explain visually than writing about it. But to put it simply, it’s far easier to be aggressive in coverage and sit on routes as a defensive back if you know a quarterback has to get rid of the ball quickly.
If the defensive line is slowed by exhaustion, then a corner more often has to play on his heels and take fewer chances to break up passes. I think that’s been one of the issues facing Witherspoon lately.
Additionally, he’s gone against Julio Jones and Michael Thomas in recent weeks. And he’s certainly not the only player who’s allowed a touchdown to Cooper Kupp, who’s scored nine this season.
Shanahan was asked over the weekend about why he plans on sticking with Witherspoon despite struggling recently.
“I think he’ll play better next week,” Shanahan said. “But I saw him this morning, he wasn’t happy with how he played. He knows he could play better. I feel very confident with him recognizing that, even before we watched the tape that I know he’ll come out firing next week and be ready to redeem himself.”
This story was originally published December 26, 2019 at 4:00 AM.
