49ers mailbag: More crucial to stop in NFC title game, Davante Adams or Aaron Jones?

It’s conference championship week for the 49ers, which still feels strange to type given San Francisco spent its last two Januarys getting a head start on preparation for the NFL Draft and their top-10 selections.

The 49ers, a year after finishing 4-12, will host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of a November blowout San Francisco won 37-8 for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

Let’s get to your questions in another installment of our weekly mailbag!

Matt Baffunno asks: Who must Niners contain more, running back Aaron Jones or receiver Davante Adams to win the NFC?

I think it’s Adams.

Going back through the skill position players that have hurt the 49ers most in games this year, the running backs who did damage didn’t do enough to help their teams win games. Kenyan Drake had a big game with 162 yards from scrimmage for the Cardinals on Halloween in a 49ers win. Christian McCaffrey had 155 when San Francisco blew out the Carolina Panthers in October, 51-13.

The receiver who hurt San Francisco most this year? That was Julio Jones, whom the 49ers couldn’t cover with Richard Sherman sidelined, as Jones had 134 yards and two touchdowns in the Falcons’ last-second win last month. The other wideout was Michael Thomas, who had 11 catches on 15 targets for 134 yards and a score when San Francisco nearly lost to the Saints in early December.

The 49ers believe they have enough offensive firepower to concede production from running backs. Their main focus has been avoiding explosive plays, which has been a crucial component of having the best pass defense in the NFL since 2009. They couldn’t do that against the Falcons despite being in position to win, which is why they lost late in the fourth quarter. If the Packers want to focus their game plan around running the ball and not letting Aaron Rodgers try winning with his arm, I’d imagine defensive coordinator Robert Saleh would be thrilled.

It’s nearly impossible to see the Packers winning Sunday without a big game from Rodgers, which would mean a big game from Adams, given the team’s dearth of weapons outside of those two.

How do the Packers keep up with the 49ers offense that averaged 7.5 yards per play in their November meeting without getting a big day from Adams? To me, he’s the bigger priority.

Niners Updates asks: What are your keys to the game vs the Packers?

For the reasons listed above, it starts with slowing Adams, which could be difficult because the 49ers’ cornerback situation is in some flux. I’d imagine Emmanuel Moseley starts opposite Sherman after performing well when he replaced Ahkello Witherspoon last week. Moseley got the start against the Packers when the two teams played Week 12 and he allowed just one first down on five targets.

The other is containing Green Bay’s talented edge rushers, Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, who combined for a pair of sacks in their last matchup. Of course, the 49ers didn’t have left tackle Joe Staley in that game, instead going with backup Daniel Brunskill at left tackle while Staley recovered from finger surgery.

San Francisco must also avoid turning the ball over, obviously. The Packers’ 17 interceptions during the regular season were tied for the third most in the NFL (with the Vikings, oddly enough). The 49ers defense should be good enough to withstand Green Bay’s 18th-ranked offense, but it would be far more difficult if Jimmy Garoppolo was giving the ball away and putting the defense in tough spots.

Finally, the 49ers should be able to run the ball effectively. The Packers allowed opponents 4.7 yards per carry. San Francisco tallied 112 yards on 22 runs (5.1-yard average) in their November victory. The team’s most reliable path to success seems to be controlling tempo with the running game, building the passing game through play action, playing from ahead and letting the pass rush get after the quarterback.

Chris Ancheta asks: Do you think Joe Woods leaves the 49ers this offseason for a defensive coordinator job?

It appears there are three vacancies at defensive coordinator (as of this posting), the Giants, Lions and Los Angeles Rams, who decided to move on from Wade Phillips.

I don’t have any information about Woods’ chances at getting another defensive coordinator job after spending the past two seasons at that post with the Broncos before this year running the 49ers secondary with the elevated title as passing game coordinator.

But I can say Woods’ addition last offseason was crucial in San Francisco’s pass defense making a huge leap. Players gush about his attention to detail and his ability to scout opponents. It’s my understanding Woods would have been a top internal candidate to replace coordinator Robert Saleh if he left for a head coaching job, though all those vacancies have been filled.

That, to me, would mean Woods would be a candidate to get another crack at becoming a defensive coordinator again some time soon. Kyle Shanahan said Tuesday he hasn’t received any additional interview requests after letting Saleh and his top two offensive assistants, Mike LaFleur and Mike McDaniel, interview with Cleveland during the bye week.

Normal Guy asks: How did Dee Ford’s hamstring hold up?

Shanahan said Tuesday Ford came out of the game feeling good after playing 22 of the 46 defensive snaps. He was right in line with his normal usage. He averaged 22 snaps per game during all the regular season contests he appeared in not including the Saints game in which he exited after just four snaps.

The good news for San Francisco is the team has an extra day to get bodies right after playing the Vikings last Saturday ahead of Sunday’s game against the Packers. Ford will continue to get treatment this week and will likely take it easy during practice, as he did last week.

Tortured but Hopeful Knicks fan asks: Has Breida played his way out of the RB rotation with ball security issues?

Breida has lost fumbles in two of his past three games, including Saturday in the waning moments against Minnesota, when he had the balled ripped from his hands after converting a short fourth down. So, yes, ball security appears to be an issue, particularly after fumbling twice on one possession which may have taken points off the board in the Falcons loss last month.

Breida had a hard time getting carries before the fumbling issues. He was dealing with an ankle injury that prevented him from playing the last time the 49ers played the Packers in late November. He averaged over 12 rushing attempts during San Francisco’s first nine games before getting hurt.

Since then, he has 22 carries over the last five games, including the Rams game in which he was active but didn’t play any offensive snaps. At this point, it looks like it might take an injury to Raheem Mostert or Tevin Coleman for Breida to get significant playing time against the Packers.

It’s worth noting Mostert sustained a cramp in his calf against Minnesota, which may have been the reason Breida was given eight carries, his most since Nov. 11 against Seattle.

This story was originally published January 15, 2020 at 4:00 AM.