49ers Mailbag: Why is the media bent on Tom Brady? Will the 49ers regress like the Rams?

We’re a week away from free the start of free agency and the NFL Draft speculation/analysis season is in full swing.

First, we should point out the 49ers on Tuesday were not awarded any compensatory selections in this year’s draft, so they’re slated to have just six picks next month, including none in rounds 2 through 4.

Additionally, the window to give players the franchise tag has been extended to next Monday because of the uncertainty surrounding the collective bargaining agreement negotiations. If there’s no new CBA (the current edition ends after the coming season), the 49ers could use two tags, the franchise and transition tag.

The tag window closes just before noon, when the league’s legal tampering period with free agents begins. So next week should start with a bang.

With that, let’s get to your questions!

Lydia asks: Why is the media determined that Jimmy Garoppolo needs to be replaced on the 49ers?

A significant portion of sports media thrives by being provocative — and no story would be juicer than the sport’s biggest star (Tom Brady) joining his hometown team after it just came short in the Super Bowl months earlier.

The time of year also plays a role. Aside from CBA talks, NFL Draft and free agent speculation, the news cycle is slow. Most players are vacationing or beginning their offseason workout regimens. No one is saying much.

Think about all the layers to the story. There’s Brady’s divorce from Bill Belichick and the Pats, the risk the 49ers would be taking by moving on from their quarterback — entering his prime — and opting for a 43-year-old. Then there’s all the quarterback dominoes that would fall afterward (Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill, et al). The entire league is waiting to see what happens with Brady.

So suggesting Brady would leave one marquee franchise for another is a nuclear bomb for web clicks, potentially, which is why certain outlets with less interesting things to talk about jump all over the speculation.

But here’s the thing: the 49ers have had an opportunity to nip this story in the bud since it caught fire after the combine. Remember when John Lynch publicly denied rumors the team was shopping Solomon Thomas in a trade last April? Lynch and Kyle Shanahan could do the same here by doubling down on their backing of Garoppolo at the combine. But they haven’t. We don’t know why.

Without publicly backing Garoppolo while vocal media types speculate the team is interested in Brady, the 49ers are letting Garoppolo twist in the wind (unless they’re speaking to him in back channels and telling him otherwise). But if they were, why not say so publicly, or at least leak it to reporters to end the speculation?

My guess: Brady to San Francisco highly, highly unlikely to happen.

But that doesn’t mean Shanahan isn’t kicking the idea around in his head. Because if Brady were willing to come at a substantially cheaper cost than Garoppolo’s $26.6 million cap figure for 2020 (a huge “if”) and the 49ers could get a big haul in a trade for Garoppolo (another big “if”), they would have to at least consider it, right?

The 49ers are facing a scenario in which three starters (Emmanuel Sanders, Arik Armstead and Jimmie Ward) could bolt in free agency. Other lesser players like Kendrick Bourne and Matt Breida could get better offers in restricted free agency.

So getting Brady on a cheaper deal than Garoppolo’s could give the team a better shot at keeping the rest of the roster together, even though Brady’s shelf life is much shorter than Garoppolo’s.

I don’t think it happens for all the reasons we went through last week. But there is a hint of logic to it. You just have to squint.

Gary Russell asks: The Rams went to the Super Bowl and face-planted the next year. What’s to prevent San Francisco from doing the same?

The Patriots had a unique defense for the Rams in that Super Bowl that included using five and six players on the line of scrimmage to combat the outside zone running game. There’s no such blueprint for the 49ers offense because it’s far more versatile (L.A. doesn’t have anyone like George Kittle, for example). The Rams also had issues along the offensive line that were exploited throughout the season.

If anything, I’d expect Shanahan’s offense to be more difficult to defend next year, unlike Sean McVay’s. Presumably, Garoppolo will be better in his second full season as a starter while all the other players will have even more experience within the system. And the 49ers aren’t expecting to lose anyone along the offensive line, barring a surprising retirement from Joe Staley (doubtful).

The Rams were also heavily reliant on running back Todd Gurley, whose usage and knee issues were a constant point of contention last season after signing him to a massive contract. The 49ers don’t have any albatross contracts at that level and have a younger roster overall. Their locker room culture is great, though we’d have to see about that if they made a play for Brady.

We’ll see how free agency shakes out. But if the 49ers can keep, say, Armstead and Ward, draft a receiver to replace Sanders and sign DeForest Buckner and Kittle to long-term contracts, I’d imagine they will enter next season as a favorite to get back to the Super Bowl. They should have plenty of motivation to win it after the game in Miami ended on such a sour note.

NFC Warzone asks: Who ends up a victim of the numbers game in the RB room first? Matt Breida or Jet (Jerick McKinnon)?

It sounds like the 49ers want to bring McKinnon back on a restructured contract. It would seem logical as long as his knee issues are solved. Lynch said McKinnon was fully cleared by the end of the season, so he should be good to go for the start of the offseason program in a few weeks.

Having watched McKinnon during his first training camp in 2018 before the injuries, I believe he would have been a focal point of the offense, similar to the way the Panthers used Christian McCaffrey in the running game and a match up problem in the passing game. He was lining up all over the field and used heavily in the screen game.

I’m of the belief his injury right before Week 1 contributed significantly to the offensive struggles before Garoppolo’s knee injury Week 3, by the way.

Remember, McKinnon was an elite athlete who was in a different system with a different role in the Vikings. Look at his testing numbers. Shanahan has earned the benefit of doubt when it comes to running backs, so the fact he was willing to give McKinnon a four-year, $30 million contract tells me he was going to be a significant piece. Losing him was a big deal in 2018.

Breida is a restricted free agent. The 49ers likely won’t give him first- or second-round tenders (giving him $4.4 or $3.1 million for next season) because they’re strapped for salary cap space and have other options at the position. Which means he could get a bigger offer from another team after he fell out of the rotation last year.

It remains to be seen what’s going to happen with Tevin Coleman, who’s due to cost nearly $4.9 million against the cap next season. Suffice to say, given the team’s ability to find running backs in unrestricted free agency at low costs, they might be able to replace Breida and/or Coleman with McKinnon and another player. That would allow them to run things back with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. in the mix.

Chris Ancheta asks: If Emmanuel Sanders is not signed and Marquise Goodwin is traded, the 49ers receivers would be very young. Do you see them bringing in a veteran in free agency or is there enough leadership and experience at receiver to rely on the draft or not make changes to the group?

I would expect them to bring in someone (Randall Cobb? Taylor Gabriel?) to compete for a job and help mentor the younger players.

But aside from a rookie or two they might bring in, this isn’t as a young a group as it looks like on paper. Kendrick Bourne will be in his fourth season, Dante Pettis his third and Deebo Samuel his second ready to become a No. 1 option.

Then there’s Trent Taylor, entering Year 4 and Richie James Jr. coming into his third. It’s a relatively experienced group of players all on their first contracts (except Bourne). I think they could get by without a veteran — though it would be tough without adding a talented player in the draft.

Replacing Sanders would be difficult given how valuable his veteran presence was. But they might not need that kind of presence next year after absorbing Sanders’ lessons last season.