49ers roster analysis: Uncertainty abounds at running back. Will McKinnon stay?

This is the fifth of a nine-part series breaking down each position on the 49ers roster before the start of free agency begins March 18. Here, we’ll take a look at running back.

One of the most interesting dynamics of Kyle Shanahan’s football philosophy is the importance of the running game while the rest of the NFL focuses on passing. Despite emphasizing the ground attack, Shanahan’s had success often by investing minimal resources into the position.

The list of undrafted or unheralded prospects to thrive in a Shanahan-led offense — started by Kyle’s father, Mike, of course — is long and well-documented. It goes back to Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson and extends to Alfred Morris, Davonte Freeman, Matt Breida and, most recently, Raheem Mostert.

Focusing on the run is an old-school idea. But Shanahan doesn’t use old-school designs.

He incorporates misdirection and movement to strain defenses before the quarterback takes his second step away from the center. A running back might be going one direction, while a receiver with 4.4 speed is running another in a sweep motion. Then the league’s best tight end is faking like he’s going to block before using his 4.5 speed to find vacant space downfield because a linebacker bit on an earlier fake.

No offensive designer uses pre-snap motions more often and a case can be made none use it more effectively, either.

Defenders will tell you Shanahan’s offense is hard to stop because of its multiplicity. Different plays can be fun from the same formation — and any of the 49ers’ eligible receivers (running backs, tight ends, fullbacks and wideouts) can align anywhere, forcing the defense to pick their poison, allowing San Francisco to react by finding a preferred mismatch.

But the basis of it all is the running game. Because if the running game can’t be stopped, like against the Vikings and Packers in the playoffs, there’s no need to risk throwing an interception when you can get five yards on any play you want, straining the opposing defense while giving yours more time to rest on the sidelines.

So with running backs both valued and replaceable in Shanahan’s system, let’s take a look at where things stand for the 49ers at the position heading into the start of the new league year.

What happened in 2019

The 49ers made a surprise value signing last March by springing for former Falcon Tevin Coleman, whom Shanahan and position coach Bobby Turner played a role in drafting out of Indiana as a third-round pick in 2015. Coleman signed a modest two-year, $10 million pact to join a deep group of speedsters that included Breida, Mostert, the previous year’s expensive free agent addition, Jerick McKinnon, and former undrafted free agent Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson was the only player who didn’t run a 4.4 or faster before getting drafted. Shanahan wanted speed to pressure defenses horizontally, which is paramount in his outside zone-centric attack, which is the best way to utilize play action.

But McKinnon couldn’t return from an ACL tear because of a turbulent August nearly 12 months after sustaining the initial injury. He landed on injured reserve and never played a snap for San Francisco after signing a four-year, $30 million contract, which raised eyebrows given Shanahan’s history of finding diamonds where you wouldn’t expect.

The 49ers still entered the season with a strong group of running backs. Breida and Coleman were both listed atop the depth chart, though Coleman started 11 of 14 regular season games before being the first back on the field during the last two playoff contests.

Coleman didn’t have a productive season as he would have liked. He suffered a high ankle sprain in the season opener that caused him to miss two weeks. He averaged fewer than four yards per carry thereafter, and had single-digit carries during the final five regular season games, despite starting each.

That’s because Mostert began to take off. The special teams standout and former track star found his groove within the offense and Shanahan elected to ride the hot hand. Mostert averaged over six yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns during the final six weeks.

He exploded in the NFC title game, becoming the first player in postseason history to record 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns. His story became one of the biggest in the football. And that performance against the Packers, to help send the 49ers to the Super Bowl, is stuff of legends.

Changes looming

The rise of Mostert and Shanahan’s reliance on Coleman didn’t bode well for Breida, who effectively fell out of the rotation as the season went along. He dealt with continued ankle injuries in the second half of the year after being plagued with similar issues in 2018. He also fumbled twice on the same drive during the December loss to the Falcons and had just 19 yards on nine carries in two playoff games. He didn’t get on the field in the Super Bowl.

Which is notable because Breida is a restricted free agent who could go to another team with a less-crowded backfield. As an RFA, he could field offers from other teams which San Francisco could decline to match given their more pressing financial decisions elsewhere, like with free agents Arik Armstead, Emmanuel Sanders and Jimmie Ward. The team’s projected cap space is hovering between $17 and $18 million.

Mostert isn’t going anywhere and is signed through 2021. Coleman could be a cap casualty, clearing some $4.9 million in room, but Coleman remains a favorite of Turner and Shanahan for his all-around skill set and scheme fit. Shanahan clearly believed Coleman was more reliable even if Breida was more explosive.

Perhaps the most interesting player is McKinnon, who seemed like an obvious cut candidate given he hasn’t stepped on the field in a meaningful game since signing with the 49ers two years ago. Yet general manager John Lynch at the scouting combine indicated the 49ers wanted to bring McKinnon back on a reworked contract (surely he won’t be making his scheduled $6.5 million base salary in 2020 coming off two missed years).

Here’s the thing with McKinnon: He was an elite athlete before the injury and Shanahan had him poised to be a star within his offense, if McKinnon’s first training camp in 2018 was any indication. McKinnon may never regain that athleticism, but it appears the 49ers might be willing to take that gamble on a low-risk contract, which might not bode well for Breida. McKinnon will be months removed from being fully cleared once the offseason conditioning program begins.

How pressing is the need?

Shanahan can never have enough running backs. He likes to make things easy for his quarterback and play to his elite defense by controlling the game’s tempo. The running game and play action are essential.

But running back is not a pressing need. If Breida leaves, Mostert, Coleman and Wilson remain, who have all proven they can excel in Shanahan’s rotation. McKinnon is the wild card who would be found money if he could return at a reworked price.

Perhaps the 49ers find a player they like late in the drafted or in undrafted free agency. But don’t expect them to use a valuable draft pick or eat into their cap space with a veteran.

Free agents and draft prospects to consider

Breida, Coleman, McKinnon and Mostert all have elite speed, so that’s the best place to start when looking at running back prospects that could fit with Shanahan. Appalachian State’s Darrynton Evans (5-10, 203) ran the second-fastest time among running backs with a 4.41 at the combine, behind only Jonathan Taylor, arguably the draft’s top back.

Evans is considered a mid- to late-round prospect, which is notable because the 49ers currently don’t have any picks in Rounds 2 through 4. Another small-school speedster to keep an eye on: Louisiana-Lafayette’s Raymond Calais, though he’s on the smaller side at 188 pounds (and matched Evans with 20 reps on the bench press).

My guess is the 49ers would prefer to bring in a younger player (or re-sign Breida) rather than dip into the pool of more expensive free agents. But players that might fit include Kenjon Barner, Ameer Abdullah and Tyler Ervin, who went to San Jose State.

This story was originally published March 11, 2020 at 4:00 AM.