49ers roster analysis: Big decision looms on Arik Armstead
This is the sixth of a nine-part series breaking down each position on the 49ers roster before the start of free agency begins March 18. Here, we’ll take a look at defensive line.
There’s been a debate in recent seasons throughout the football world about defensive philosophy: is it smarter to build from the defensive line back to the secondary, or prioritize the secondary more than the front seven?
Traditionally, coaches like to start with an emphasis on the line of scrimmage. Winning the battle in the trenches can offset what goes on between receivers and defensive backs. But not all coaches feel that way.
Bill Belichick, for example, would rather focus resources on building a strong secondary and piece together a pass rush through scheme and play calling. Belichick, after all, has allowed star defensive linemen like Chandler Jones and Tre Flowers leave the organization for more money elsewhere, while Belichick had no problem doling out big contracts to cornerbacks like Stephon Gilmore, currently the Patriots’ highest paid player, and Darrelle Revis in 2014.
Kyle Shanahan is more of a traditionalist. As an offensive coach in the league since 2004, he’s found it harder to go against elite defensive lines than secondaries. Which is understandable given his knack for getting players open through play design.
“If you can’t block people to play, it’s tough to pull off whether people are getting open or not,” Shanahan said last March while introducing newly minted pass rusher Dee Ford in a news conference. “You can help people at times get open versus better players and stuff, but it’s very tough to help people block guys all day.”
Which is why the 49ers last offseason made dramatic improvements to a defensive line that already featured three former first-round draft picks. They added two more in Ford, via trade with the Kansas City Chiefs, and Nick Bosa, the number two pick in the 2019 draft.
The decisions worked out as San Francisco had arguably the league’s best defense throughout the 2019 season that carried it to the Super Bowl. Let’s take a look at where things stand this offseason and what changes to the roster’s biggest strength could be upcoming.
What happened in 2019
Bosa missed time in OTAs with a hamstring injury and then suffered a high ankle sprain during the first week of training camp. The two injuries didn’t quell the idea that he was injury prone, particularly after playing just three games during his final college season at Ohio State. Bosa skipped the preseason and most of the practices throughout August after looking like one of the team’s best players after just a handful of padded practices early in training camp.
It turns out Bosa did a great job of quelling the skeptics about his durability. He played in every single game as a rookie. He finished the regular season with nine sacks and added four more in the playoffs. He was the runaway winner of defensive rookie of the year and might have been the best defender in a white jersey during the Super Bowl.
The Ford acquisition wasn’t quite the same slam dunk, but it did prove effective. Ford finished with 6.5 sacks in 11 games serving mostly as a pass-rush specialist. He struggled to shake nagging knee tendinitis that popped up training camp, and then a hamstring injury caused him to miss five of the last six games before returning for the postseason. Ford played just under 22 percent of the defensive snaps on the year.
Former 2015 first-round draft pick Arik Armstead had a career season with 10 sacks during the final year of his contract. DeForest Buckner was his typical self, providing stability, leadership and production, though his 7.5 sacks didn’t match his 12.0 from last season. Buckner was named a second-team All-Pro before recording 2.5 sacks in three playoff games, including 1.5 in the Super Bowl.
The 49ers finished tied for fifth in the NFL with 48 sacks during the regular season. Bosa, Ford, Armstead and Buckner were only quartet in the league to finish with at least 6.5 sacks each.
Meanwhile, former No. 3 overall choice, Solomon Thomas, saw his role fall to the wayside. He finished with two sacks on the year and started just three games while playing 41 percent of the snaps as a rotational player. Nose tackle D.J. Jones had a solid third campaign with the team before an ankle injury landed him on injured reserve in December.
Depth became an issue throughout the second half of the regular season while Ford was dealing with his injury paired with backup defensive end Ronald Blair III tearing his ACL against the Seahawks in November, followed by backup plan Damontre Moore breaking his forearm weeks later.
Ford’s return for the playoffs helped San Francisco’s defense get back to form, with the exception of the fourth quarter against the Chiefs.
Changes looming
It appears likely the team’s top four defensive linemen will be back next season to instill fear in opposing offenses. But it’s not a certainty.
Armstead is slated for unrestricted free agency and remains a candidate for the franchise tag, though he would cost roughly $19 million on the tag, which would eat nearly all of San Francisco’s remaining cap space, likely preventing them from bringing back other free agents like receiver Emmanuel Sanders or safety Jimmie Ward.
Blair, who has been productive in a bit role the last two seasons, is also a free agent, though his market could be suppressed by his knee injury. Fellow reserves, Sheldon Day, Moore and Anthony Zettel, are also free agents.
Finally, Buckner is due for a new contract as 2020 is his fifth-year option season. It appears getting that deal done is a priority, but it remains to be seen how such a contract would be structured given the tight cap restrictions and Armstead’s uncertain future.
The question becomes, do the 49ers want to pay $35 to $40 million per season for Buckner and Armstead together, while paying Ford in 2020 nearly $16 million and Bosa $7.6 million on his rookie deal? That’s a ton of money along the defensive line.
The Super Bowl run proved it’s worth it, though it will be difficult to sustain success for multiple seasons as roster needs open up elsewhere.
How pressing is the need?
It depends. The team will have to find a replacement if Armstead is elsewhere next season. Though it would make it easier to sign other players without having to worry about his costly salary. And if Armstead were to get traded, like Ford did from the Chiefs a year ago, San Francisco could gain some valuable draft capital (remember, they don’t have any selections in Rounds 2 through 4 in this year’s draft).
The 49ers gave up a second-round choice for Ford last offseason. Could get they a second for Armstead? His market remains unclear.
Additionally, Blair’s status is worth monitoring. He’s a favorite of the coaching staff and could return on an affordable contract. Day, Moore and Zettel may also have to be replaced if they land contracts out of the 49ers’ range from other teams.
Free agents and draft prospects to consider
Shanahan wants to keep the band together. Rightfully so. But Armstead leaving would create a significant void that would need filling.
The 49ers love players from Iowa and defensive lineman A.J. Epenesa seems like a natural fit to replace Armstead. Epenesa can also play outside and inside, like Armstead did, and might be available when the team picks at No. 31 in the first round or trades back into Round 2.
Epenesa didn’t test well at the combine, but his production and game film should outweigh his measurables, particularly for teams picking at the back half of the first night.
Neville Gallimore of Oklahoma is another player to keep an eye on, perhaps in Round 2, who could play inside and out like Armstead. He’s considered a high-ceiling prospect who hasn’t tapped into his potential yet. Surrounding him with Buckner, Bosa and Ford could be the way to maximize him.
Don’t expect the 49ers to break the bank on another player in free agency. But some lower-priced free agents that might fit include Michael Brockers, Michael Bennett and Jarran Reed.
This story was originally published March 13, 2020 at 4:00 AM.