49ers mailbag: Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb in NFL Draft?
Yep, we’re tired of sitting around the house too. Let’s get to our latest quarantine edition of our 49ers mailbag.
Lalogm asks: CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy?
I’m not sure which player will end up the better pro, but I feel comfortable saying Jeudy is a better fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense than Lamb.
Jeudy is regarded as one of the best route-running prospects in years. Evaluators say he can threaten defenses at all three levels of the field. He’s been compared to Odell Beckham Jr., whom Shanahan is very fond of, and Chad Johnson.
And if we’ve learned anything from guys like Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, D.J. Moore and Jarvis Landry, who were all among the top 10 receivers in yardage last season, route running can be more important than having elite physical traits.
Lamb, meanwhile, is a more physical presence who can make plays in traffic and make defenders miss after the catch. Longtime scout Gil Brandt recently compared Lamb to Dez Bryant, who was a limited route runner but played with unique physicality after the catch. That’s the comparison that’s stuck with me the most while watching Lamb play.
The prospect most closely resembling that skill set drafted by a Kyle Shanahan-coached team since he became an offensive coordinator in 2008 is Jalen Hurd, who could transition to tight end if/when he gets back into the mix after missing last season with a stress fracture in his back. It’s worth noting Hurd reportedly blew away his Baylor pro day in 2018 with a 6.6-second three-cone drill, which would rank in the 95th percentile among receivers. Nearly all of the wideouts Shanahan has drafted have done the three-cone in 7.0 seconds or shorter.
Neither Lamb nor Jeudy did the three-cone at the combine. And neither were able to have pro days because of the COVID-19 pandemic, which means the 49ers will have to rely on film to make their decision. I would be very surprised if Shanahan wound up picking Lamb if both players were available.
Sam asks: Chris Simms, one of Kyle Shanahan’s best friends, does not have Jerry Jeudy in his top five receivers and said he doesn’t see Jeudy as Kyle’s type of receiver. Jeudy also does not have the measurables that we see in the receivers Kyle has picked. Any chance Kyle really would prefer Henry Ruggs III or even Justin Jefferson over Jeudy?
The feeling I get is Jeudy is widely viewed as the top receiver in the class and that Simms’ opinion is the exception, not the norm.
It certainly feels notable that Simms would say something like that given how well he knows Shanahan. But there’s also a chance he could be doing his good buddy a favor by creating a narrative that might push Jeudy down the board. It’s likely Jeudy is drafted before San Francisco picks at No. 13.
I also don’t buy the idea Jeudy doesn’t have the measurables Shanahan covets. I’d disagree and say Jeudy exemplifies the measurables Shanahan looks for. We might not have a three-cone time, but his route running on film would indicate he can run a three-cone that would be adequate enough. His 4.45 in the 40 is right in line with a number of top wideouts in the NFL and faster than Lamb’s 4.5.
Ruggs and Jefferson certainly look like they could also fit the offense. Ruggs could be a Tyreek Hill-like burner to complement San Francisco’s running game, Kittle and Samuel. Jefferson might also fit that mold, though he’s better in the intermediate levels in the middle of the field than a deep threat.
But I don’t think Shanahan would take either player over Jeudy. But given his game-breaking speed, a case could be made for Ruggs having the higher ceiling than Jeudy in Shanahan’s offense.
James asks: what if Tua Tagovailoa falls to pick 13? A rookie contract for a stud QB is very enticing, it could stretch out that Super Bowl window by a few more years. Thoughts?
Sure, getting a quarterback on a rookie contract wouldn’t hurt. But there isn’t going to be an offseason program because of the coronavirus crisis which means Tua wouldn’t get on the field with his new teammates until training camp.
Would getting a rookie coming off a major injury, with no offseason program, be a better idea than sticking with Jimmy Garoppolo entering his third full season in Shanahan’s scheme? I don’t think so.
Randy asks: Matt Breida not signing or a trade coming?
The 49ers placed a second-round tender on Breida, meaning they would get a second-round pick for Breida in a trade if he received a better offer from another team.
So considering Breida fell out of the rotation last season after going undrafted in 2017, the 49ers would love to get a coveted second-round pick for him — which is another way of saying it’s highly unlikely. Breida should sign at some point before training camp and be back in the mix in 2020.
Nelson asks: Out of Marquise Goodwin and Matt Breida. Who is more likely to be traded?
For the reasons stated above, it has to be Goodwin. Though the chances of finding a trade partner are slim.
The 49ers could save some $3.7 million by trading Goodwin before June 1 ($4.2 million afterwards) but it’s hard to imagine a team willing to take on that contract given Goodwin’s lack of production the last two seasons. Plus, teams are more likely to look to the deep receiving class in the draft.
Goodwin since his breakout in 2017 has just 35 catches for 581 yards while missing 12 games, not including last season’s playoffs when he was on injured reserve. My guess: he competes for a spot among the crowded group in training camp.
49ers mode asks: The 49ers have been tied to numerous receivers, cornerbacks, defensive linemen, and even offensive line prospects at 13. Which one should be outright avoided due to their potential to be a complete bust at the NFL level?
I hate the word, “bust.” The draft is an inexact science and players can contribute to winning even if they don’t live up to where they were drafted. Some would argue Laken Tomlinson was a first-round bust for the Lions, but he’s been a very good player at left guard since coming to the 49ers.
Regarding the question, I would be surprised if San Francisco took a corner with pick No. 13. I don’t think C.J. Henderson (Florida) is a natural scheme fit, nor is it likely Jeff Okudah (Ohio State) will be on the board. I’d bet they end up with a receiver, defensive lineman or offensive linemen at No. 13 and look for a cornerback at No. 31, with Trevon Diggs (Alabama), A.J. Terrell (Clemson), Jaylon Johnson (Utah) and Bryce Hall (Virginia) looking like stronger fits for the zone-centric scheme at pick No. 31 or Day 2.
This story was originally published April 8, 2020 at 7:49 AM.
